青岛城区一次冰雹过程分析

利用常规探测和区域自动站、雷达等资料,分析了2007年5月28日发生在青岛市的冰雹天气过程,结果表明:这次冰雹天气是在高中低3层都有冷涡系统且呈前倾槽结构的天气背景下发生的;925 hPa的西南急流和中高层的不稳定都有利于冰雹云的形成;冰雹发生前,青岛城区上空低层大气逆温、逆湿,中层有干冷空气入侵,为冰雹云形成提供了有利的位势不稳定层结;造成5月28日青岛城区降雹的直接影响系统是超级单体雷暴,冰雹云的移动和冰雹落区与地面中γ尺度气旋相对应.     

基于FY-3A／MERSI的洪涝灾害遥感监测初探

介绍了FY-3A/MERSI数据的基本情况,利用MERSI数据1～5通道进行典型地物的光谱分析了典型地物在MERSI图像上的特点和水体识别模型,选择适用于MERSI图像的模型对2008年10月南宁市发生的洪涝灾害进行监测.     

Impact of surface variations on the momentum flux above the urban canopy

Based on the momentum flux–wind profile relationship of the Monin–Obukhov Similarity (MOS) theory, the observational data from the urban boundary layer field campaign in Nanjing are used to calculate the friction velocity ( $ {u_*} $ ) at the top of the urban canopy and the calculated results are evaluated. The urban surface roughness parameters (the roughness length z ₀ and zero-plane displacement height z _d) are estimated with the Ba method (Bottema’s morphological method). Two different regimes are employed for the calculations. In the homogeneous approach, z ₀ and z _d are averagely derived from the surface elements in the whole study area; while in the heterogeneous approach, z ₀ and z _d are locally derived from the surface elements in the corresponding upwind fetches (or source areas). The calculated friction velocities are compared to the measurement data. The results show that the calculated friction velocities from the heterogeneous approach are in better agreement with the observed values than those from the homogeneous approach are. This study implies that the local roughness parameters can properly represent the dynamical heterogeneity of urban surface, and its application can significantly improve the performance of parameterizations based on the MOS theory in the urban roughness sublayer.     

砖木、砖石结构建筑闪电分流系数研究

随着经济的发展,我国对高层建筑,以及智能建筑物的防雷很重视,具体的防雷措施也做的很到位.但相对于一些古建筑物来说,特别是砖木,砖石结构建筑,在防雷方面却没有引起足够的重视,现阶段能够大量保存的砖木、砖石结构建筑大部分都是具有重要历史、艺术、科学价值的革命遗址、纪念建筑物、古文化遗址、古城址、古窑址、古墓葬、古建筑、石窟寺、古民居、石刻等文物,因此对这些建筑的防雷措施应该更加重视.本文做了关于砖木、砖石结构建筑闪电分流系数研究,仅供参考,希望对砖木、砖石建筑物雷电防护工作起到一定的作用.     

粒子群算法与支持向量机相结合的热带气旋强度预报试验

支持向量机(SVM)的惩罚参数及核参数的选择直接影响到模型效果,通过粒子群算法(PSO)解决支持向量机的参数选择问题,实现了参数选择的自动化。将该方法应用于热带气旋强度预报,利用气候持续性因子,挑选了1990年的100个左右样本进行预报检验,预报时效为12 h、24 h、36 h、48 h的强度平均绝对误差分别为3.00、4.35、4.93和6.68 m/s。另外,还与国外预报结果及采用最小二乘回归法的预报结果进行了效果的比较,SVM方法显示了更好的预报能力。     

近50年陕西黄土高原云量和气温年际变化

利用陕西黄土高原24个气象站1957年以来的气温、总云量和低云量观测资料,分析了它们的年际及年代际演变趋势及相关关系。结果表明:近50年区域年平均气温波动升高,尤其是1987年以后;北部风沙区气温的年际变化较大,增温幅度由北向南递减;1957年以来区域年平均总云量呈逐渐减少趋势,低云量下降趋势较总云量更为明显,2000年以后总云量有所增加。相关分析表明:陕西黄土高原年平均气温与年均总云量及低云量呈明显的负相关,均通过了0.001显著性水平检验,且低云量的相关更为显著;总云量和低云量与降水量呈显著正相关;不同区域和不同季节总云量和低云量与气温的相关系数有明显差异,但与降水量的相关非常显著。     

双波段大气向下红外辐射云遥感数值模拟

为了将卫星多通道遥感技术应用到地基测云红外遥感中,利用SBDART(平面平行辐射传输模式)模式对双波段(10.3～11.3μm,11.5～12.5μm)大气向下红外辐射进行计算。分析了双波段辐射亮温差的特点,讨论了不同能见度、不同天空状况对两通道亮温差的影响,同时将利用实际测量的亮温差值所判断出来的天空状况与实际天空状况进行了对比。结果表明,在能见度较好时天顶方向辐射率变化比天边方向明显;在高能见度时一定天顶角范围内,可以利用不同天空状况亮温差不同的特点对云进行识别。     

Set-asides for carbon sequestration: implications for permanence and leakage

This paper examines the potential role of forest set-asides in global carbon sequestration policy. While set asides that protect forests from timber harvests and land-use conversion may alleviate concerns with permanence, and they may provide large ancillary environmental benefits, they may also lead to large leakage. This paper uses a global land use and forestry model to examine the efficiency of three crediting schemes for set-asides. The results show that if set-asides are integrated into a global forestry carbon sequestration program that includes a wide range of other management options, then 300 million hectares of land would be set-aside, and up to 128 Pg C could be sequestered in global forests by 2105. Under alternative policies that focus exclusively on set-asides, more forestland can be set-asides, up to 3.2 billion hectare, but these policies invite large leakage in the near-term, and in the long-run, they less net carbon is removed from the atmosphere. Specifically, leakage is estimated to be 47–52%, depending on the policy, and by the end of the century, up to 17% less carbon will be sequestered in all forests.     

Parameterization of Sheared Convective Entrainment in the First-Order Jump Model: Evaluation Through Large-Eddy Simulation

In this note, two different approaches are used to estimate the entrainment-flux to surface-flux ratio for a sheared convective boundary layer (CBL); both are derived under the framework of the first-order jump model (FOM). That suggested by Sun and Wang (SW approach) has the advantage that there is no empirical constant included, though the dynamics are described in an implicit manner. The second, which was proposed by Kim et al. and Pino et al. (KP approach), explicitly characterizes the dynamics of the sheared entrainment, but uncertainties are induced through the empirical constants. Their performances in parameterizing the CBL growth rate are compared and discussed, and a new value of the parameter A ₃ in the KP approach is suggested. Large-eddy simulation (LES) data are employed to test both approaches: simulations are conducted for the CBL growing under varying conditions of surface roughness, free-atmospheric stratification, and wind shear, and data used when the turbulence is in steady state. The predicted entrainment rates in each case are tested against the LES data. The results show that the SW approach describes the evolution of the sheared CBL quite well, and the KP approach also reproduces the growth of the CBL reasonably, so long as the value of A ₃ is modified to 0.6.     

2008年11月初大雾过程边界问题分析

利用常规观测资料和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料对2008年11月初发生在中国东部的一场大雾的边缘区域进行诊断分析,结果表明:在雾区的边缘,能否成雾的因素除湿度、风速和逆温等基本条件外,近地面散度场与垂直风速对雾的形成也有相当重要的作用,其中低层辐合高层辐散区的边缘和雾区的边缘有较好的对应关系,950hPa上方的下沉速度能够阻止水汽的向上扩散,而越往上越大的上升速度意味着雾区的消散.