基于偏最小二乘回归的区域换式风速预报订正技术研究

利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013-2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91.7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86.5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。     

中国海洋生态效率时空格局演变及影响要素分析

随着海洋环境问题的日益凸显,海洋经济与海洋生态保护如何协调发展已成为学术界的研究热点。本文使用C2NLS方法对2003-2016年中国沿海11个省区市海洋生态效率进行测度,使用SDE方法对海洋生态效率的时空演进特征进行分析,最后对影响海洋生态效率的因素进行实证探索。结果表明：(1)海洋生态效率整体呈上升趋势,但地区差距并未显著缩小,海洋生态效率的地区分布出现极化趋势。(2)海洋生态效率重心表现出西南向移动特征,东北-西南向的空间格局更加明显。(3)环境规制、海洋科技和对外开放可以有效提高海洋生态效率水平;产业结构效应不显著,可能是由于高污染行业同时具有高产出与高排放的特征导致;区位因素效应不显著,海洋生态效率与地区发展水平之间没有明显的二次型关系,与中国海洋经济整体发展仍处于“倒U”型曲线的上升通道情况相符,部分印证了“环境的库兹涅茨”曲线理论。     

1958-2017年太湖蒸发量年际变化趋势及主控因子

湖泊蒸发对气候变化非常敏感,是水文循环响应气候变化的指示因子,因此研究湖泊蒸发的控制因素,对于理解区域水文循环有重要意义.本文利用太湖中尺度涡度通量网避风港站观测数据校正JRA-55再分析资料,驱动CLM4.0-LISSS模型,并利用2012-2017年涡度相关通量数据和湖表面温度数据检验模型模拟蒸发结果,验证了该模型在太湖的适用性;估算了1958-2017年间太湖的湖面蒸发量,并利用Manner-Kendall趋势检验分析了湖面蒸发的变化趋势,寻找太湖实际蒸发的年际变化的主控因子.结果如下:校正后的JRA-55再分析资料模拟的太湖蒸发与观测值之间存在季节偏差,但是季节偏差在年尺度上相互抵消,再分析资料可用于年际尺度太湖蒸发变化的模拟;1958-2017年间太湖蒸发量以1977年为界,先下降(-3.6 mm/a),后增加(2.3 mm/a);多元逐步回归结果表明,向下的短波辐射是太湖1958-2017年间太湖蒸发变化的主控因子,向下的长波辐射、气温、比湿也对湖泊蒸发年际变化有一定影响,但是风速对蒸发量的年际变化影响不大.     

3D Step-by-step inversion strategy for audio magnetotellurics data based on unstructured mesh

A three-dimensional (3D) step-by-step inversion strategy for audio magnetotellurics(AMT) is investigated in this study.The objective function is minimized by it...     

雷达探测员辅助监控系统浅析

采用C#编程实现对新一代天气雷达探测资料传输的全程实时监控,即对雷达数据采集机与省局服务器的连接、雷达拼图产品的传输、雷达的状态文件均实时监控。在监控中发现传输过程的任意环节出错时,立即通过自动拨号以电话的方式通知值班员,并在雷达机桌面上弹出故障类型以帮助探测员迅速判断出故障类型并解决。     

Early Cretaceous Metasomatized Lithospheric Mantle beneath the Central Jiangnan Orogen in South China: Geochemical and Sr-Nd Isotope Evidence from the Tuanshanbei Dolerite

It is well established that Cretaceous magmatism in the South China Block (SCB) is related to the Paleo-Pacific subduction. However, the starting time and the associated deep crust-mantle processes are still debatable. Mafic dike swarms carry important information on the deep earth (including mantle) geodynamics and geochemical evolution. In the Jiangnan Orogen (South China), there is no information on whether the Mesozoic magmatic activities in this region are also directly related to the Pacific subduction or not. In this study, we present detailed zircon U-Pb geochronological, whole-rock element and Sr-Nd isotope data for Early Cretaceous Tuanshanbei dolerite dikes, and provide new constraints on the condition of the lithospheric mantle and mantle dynamics of the SCB during that time. LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating suggests that this dolerite erupted in the Early Cretaceous (~145 Ma). All samples have alkaline geochemical affinities with K2O + Na2O = 3.11–4.04 wt%, K2O/Na2O = 0.50–0.72, and Mg# = 62.24–65.13. They are enriched in LILE but depleted in HFSE with higher initial 87Sr/86Sr ratio (0.706896–0.714743) and lower εNd(t) (?2.61 to ?1.67). They have high Nb/U, Nb/La, La/Sm and Rb/Sr, and low La/Nb, La/Ta, Ce/Pb, Ba/Rb, Tb/Yb and Gd/Yb ratios. Such geochemical signatures suggest that the fractional crystallization is obvious but crustal contamination play a negligible role during magmatic evolution. Tuanshanbei dolerite were most likely derived from low-degree (2%–5%) partial melting of a phlogopite-bearing mantle material consisted of ~85% spinel peridotite and ~15% garnet peridotite previously metasomatized by asthenosphere-derived fluids/melts with minor subduction-derived fluids/melts. Slab-rollback generally lead to the upwelling of the hot asthenosphere. The upwelling of asthenosphere consuming the lithospheric mantle by thermo-mechanical-chemical erosion. The lithospheric mantle may have partially melted due to the heating by the upwelling asthenosphere and lithospheric extension. It is inferred that the Tuanshanbei dolerite might be associated with the initial slab rollback and corresponding lithospheric extension occurred potentially at ca. 145 Ma.     

小麦吸浆虫的发生规律及防治

小麦吸浆虫的发生和温、湿度条件关系密切.平舆县3月中、下旬和4月份的地温适宜成虫活动,4月份降水较多时,很适宜吸浆虫发生.防治措施以麦播期和蛹期防治为主,穗期成虫补治为辅,严把麦播期、孕穗期(蛹期)和抽穗期(成虫期)“三关“防治.     

Paleoenvironmental implications of the guano phosphatic cementation on Dongdao Island in the South China Sea

The phosphatic cement in the bioclastic sediment sequence on the northeastern shore of Dongdao Island in the South China Sea was studied and its paleoenvironmental implications discussed. Petrological characteristics and major, trace, REE element data unequivocally supported the notion that phosphatization was closely associated with avian guano decomposition and leaching, whereas carbon and oxygen isotope results further revealed that meteoric water were involved in these processes. AMS ¹⁴C dates on the brown phosphate cements indicate that they were formed around 5700, 5000–5100 and 2900 yr BP, respectively. The multi-episodes of phosphatization very likely correspond to intermittent seabird occupation on this island — possibly reflecting Holocene sea-level oscillation and/or long term climate changes in the South China Sea that have controlled seabird habitat. The phosphate cementation, which occurs widely in tropical islands, may be another useful monitor for sea-level and/or paleoclimate changes.     

Temporal and spatial changes of dunes in the Changjiang (Yangtze) estuary,China

The response of subaqueous dunes to the variation of riverine sediment supply in an estuary is rarely reported. Five sets of field measurements of bed sediments and topography were made in the Changjiang estuary, China during dry and flood seasons for the past 9 years. Results show that dunes were mainly three-dimensional (3D) during flood seasons and two-dimensional (2D) dunes during dry seasons. Dunes were also much larger in flood seasons. Dunes mainly occurred within the main channels of the estuary although they extended 11.7 km seaward of their normal extent in the South Channel during dry seasons from 2002 to 2006. This extension of the dune field is likely due to a sharp decline of sediment discharge caused by large reservoirs such as Three Gorges.     

Outburst risk of barrier lakes in Sichuan,China

34 barrier lakes induced by earthquake have been formed by wedged debris on the river channels after a massive earthquake happening on May 12 in Sichuan, China. Among them, the Tangjiashan Barrier Lake is the largest one. It faces very urgent risk of dam breaking when water level reaches the top and begins overflow in case of storm rainfalls and continually aftershocks, threatening already devastated cities and villages with about 1.5 million people downstream. The outburst of a similar barrier lake occurred in the Minjiang River in 1933, causing a catastrophic flood. Risk analysis indicates that not all barrier lakes are highly dangerous. Only those lakes with very high dams and water to be filled up in short period need to be dealt with immediately.