1617号鲇鱼台风登陆后引发不同性质暴雨的成因对比分析

2016年9月28日1617号台风"鲇鱼"登陆后由台风本体环流和外围环流引发了不同性质的暴雨,这是本次秋季登陆台风暴雨预报的难点。利用常规气象观测资料以及NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料等,对不同性质暴雨的成因进行了诊断对比分析。结果表明:浙江东南部对流性降水和江西南部稳定性降水的大气层结结构具有明显的差异。中高纬度低槽距离台风较远,冷空气主要从低层入侵台风西北侧,破坏台风低层的暖心结构。台风外围中层干冷空气随东南风向浙江东南部输送,并叠加在低层暖湿气流之上,形成上冷下暖的不稳定层结,同时在对流层上层有干冷空气下沉至台风环流中下层(干侵入),导致浙江文成附近出现了局地特大暴雨。江西南部由于低层被湿冷空气占据,层结较为稳定,降水发展平缓。低空东南急流为台风外围环流暴雨提供了充足的水汽,浙江东南部地形对降水起到了增幅作用。不稳定层结及中层冷空气的输送对对流性暴雨的激发作用可以为登陆台风降水性质和强度预报提供参考依据。     

季风低压诱发2018年8月广东特大暴雨过程分析

利用NCEP/FNL再分析资料和中尺度数值模拟方法探讨2018年8月27日—9月1日季风低压环境下广东特大暴雨过程的形成成因。利用扰动天气图方法分析发现,季风低压和西南急流为此次广东暴雨过程提供了有利的水汽条件和能量条件。熵变零线位置与降水落区位置有较好的对应,零线处能量有最大累积,有利于暴雨的发生发展,对预报暴雨降水落区有一定的指示意义。为进一步验证季风低压的影响机制,构建不同季风低压尺度的敏感性试验,即通过滤去季风低压环流中的扰动分量来改变季风低压的强度。结果表明：暴雨强度与季风低压尺度和强度存在密切的关系。当季风低压强度较强时,暴雨过程总雨量强;当季风低压强度较弱时,降水大为减少甚至无降水。诊断分析指出,能量螺旋度指数能够较好反映出不同情形下降水发生发展,在季风低压背景下,暴雨区能量螺旋度指数较大,降水强度较强。反之,随着季风低压强度减弱,能量螺旋度指数减小,降水减弱。     

发展地理学视角下中国多维贫困测度及时空交互特征

探索贫困监测评估指标体系及区域间贫困时空交互动态特征对当前中国可持续减贫研究具有重要意义。基于发展地理学视角,引入面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型并结合人类发展分析路径与SDGs全球指标框架识别影响中国贫困的致贫和减贫因素,以此测度多维贫困指数,进而采用探索性时空数据分析（ESTDA）方法揭示多维贫困的时空交互特征。结果表明:① 中国当前贫困监测评估的致贫因子包括农作物受灾比和社会总抚养比,减贫因子则涉及人均GDP、人均社会保障支出、人均公共卫生支出、每万人医院数、新型农村合作医疗参合率、植被覆盖率、人均教育支出、高校数量、人均科学研究与试验发展支出、人均文化事业经费。② 2007—2017年中国省域收入贫困、健康贫困、文化贫困及多维贫困状况得到显著改善,全国综合贫困程度年均下降5.67%,部分省域的不同维度贫困内部出现差异化。③ 研究期内省域间多维贫困局域空间格局表现为较强的空间动态性,并呈现由东部向中、西部增大的变化态势;省域间多维贫困指数随时间演变呈现强的空间依赖关系,形成以西北和东北为高值区向四周递减的变化格局。④ 邻接省域多维贫困交互的时空网络以负向关联为主,仅有陕西与河南、陕西与宁夏、青海与甘肃、湖北与安徽、四川与贵州、海南与广东形成空间上较强的减贫协同关系。研究成果对当前中国精准扶贫战略实施尤其是2020年后预防返贫具有重要的参考价值。     

Unique achondrite Northwest Africa 11042: Exploring the melting and breakup of the L chondrite parent body

Northwest Africa (NWA) 11042 is a heavily shocked achondrite with medium‐grained cumulate textures. Its olivine and pyroxene compositions, oxygen isotopic composition, and chromium isotopic composition are consistent with L chondrites. Sm‐Nd dating of its primary phases shows a crystallization age of 4100 ± 160 Ma. Ar‐Ar dating of its shocked mineral maskelynite reveals an age of 484.0 ± 1.5 Ma. This age coincides roughly with the breakup event of the L chondrite parent body evident in the shock ages of many L chondrites and the terrestrial record of fossil L chondritic chromite. NWA 11042 shows large depletions in siderophile elements (<0.01×CI) suggestive of a complex igneous history involving extraction of a Fe‐Ni‐S liquid on the L chondrite parent body. Due to its relatively young crystallization age, the heat source for such an igneous process is most likely impact. Because its mineralogy, petrology, and O isotopes are similar to the ungrouped achondrite NWA 4284 (this work), the two meteorites are likely paired and derived from the same parent body.     

A probabilistic framework for improving reverse geocoding output

Reverse geocoding, which transforms machine‐readable GPS coordinates into human‐readable location information, is widely used in a variety of location‐based services and analysis. The output quality of reverse geocoding is critical because it can greatly impact these services provided to end‐users. We argue that the output of reverse geocoding should be spatially close to and topologically correct with respect to the input coordinates, contain multiple suggestions ranked by a uniform standard, and incorporate GPS uncertainties. However, existing reverse geocoding systems often fail to fulfill these aims. To further improve the reverse geocoding process, we propose a probabilistic framework that includes: (1) a new workflow that can adapt all existing address models and unitizes distance and topology relations among retrieved reference data for candidate selections; (2) an advanced scoring mechanism that quantifies characteristics of the entire workflow and orders candidates according to their likelihood of being the best candidate; and (3) a novel algorithm that derives statistical surfaces for input GPS uncertainties and propagates such uncertainties into final output lists. The efficiency of the proposed approaches is demonstrated through comparisons to the four commercial reverse geocoding systems and through human judgments. We envision that more advanced reverse geocoding output ranking algorithms specific to different application scenarios can be built upon this work.     

Small‐area patch‐merging method accounting for both local constraints and the overall area balance

Small‐area patch merging is a common operation in land use data generalization. However, existing research on small‐area patch merging has mainly focused on local compatibility measures, which often lead to area imbalances among land use types from a global perspective. To address the shortcomings of previous studies by resolving local and global concerns simultaneously, this article proposes a merging method that considers both local constraints and the overall area balance. First, a local optimization model that considers three constraints—namely, the areas of neighboring patches, the lengths of shared arcs, and semantic similarity—is established. The areas of small patches are first pre‐allocated. Subsequently, in accordance with an area change threshold for individual land use types, land use types with area changes that exceed this threshold are identified. The patches corresponding to these land use types are subjected to iterative adjustments while considering the overall area balance. Based on their area splitting abilities, the split lines for small‐area patches are determined, and small‐area patches are merged. Finally, actual data from Guangdong Province are used for validation. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is capable of preserving the local compatibility of patches while balancing the overall area associated with each land use type.     

北极薄冰-煎饼冰区域中不同重力波驱动形成海流的敏感性分析

A coupled ocean-ice-wave model is used to study ice-edge jet and eddy genesis during surface gravity wave dissipation in a frazil-pancake ice zone. With observational data from the Beaufort Sea, possible wave dissipation processes are evaluated using sensitivity experiments. As wave energy dissipated, energy was transferred into ice floe through radiation stress. Later, energy was in turn transferred into current through ocean-ice interfacial stress. Since most of the wave energy is dissipated at the ice edge, ice-edge jets, which contained strong horizontal shear, appeared both in the ice zone and the ocean. Meanwhile, the wave propagation direction determines the velocity partition in the along-ice-edge and cross-ice-edge directions, which in turn determines the strength of the along-ice-edge jet and cross-ice-edge velocity. The momentum applied in the along-ice-edge(cross-ice-edge)direction increased(decreased) with larger incident angle, which is favorable condition for producing stronger mesoscale eddies, vice versa. The dissipation rate increases(decreases) with larger(smaller) wavenumber, which enhances(reduces) the jet strength and the strength of the mesoscale eddy. The strong along-ice-edge jet may extend to a deep layer(> 200 m). If the water depth is too shallow(e.g., 80 m), the jet may be largely dampened by bottom drag, and no visible mesoscale eddies are found. The results suggest that the bathymetry and incident wavenumber(magnitude and propagation direction) are important for wave-driven current and mesoscale eddy genesis.     

北极冰下水声通信中改进的最小均方/四次方直接自适应均衡器

本文提出了一种适用于北极冰下水声通信的最小均方/四次方直接自适应均衡器（LMS/F-DAE）。它能处理基带复信号,与LMS相比,具有更好的均衡效果。考虑到均衡器的稀疏特性,在其代价函数中加入自适应范数（AN）作为约束。它能根据均衡器系数的大小自适应变化：对于小系数,此约束项存在以加快收敛速度;对于大系数,此约束项不存在以减小均衡误差。利用第九次中国北极科学考察得到的实验数据验证AN-LMS/F-DAE的性能。结果表明,与传统的LMS/F-DAE相比,AN-LMS/F-DAE能提升均衡器的稀疏性且均衡性能更优。     

贺兰山东麓极端暴雨的中尺度特征

利用近10年宁夏逐时自动气象站降水、银川CD雷达、FY-2、探空和ECMWF再分析0.125°x 0.125°等高分辨率多源气象资料,在中尺度系统分型基础上,对比分析贺兰山东麓6次极端暴雨的中尺度特征.结果表明:(1)低空偏(东)南急流夜间增强并配合贺兰山地形,在东坡山前触发或增强了暴雨中小尺度系统,造成地形处降水增幅...     

近60a来新疆不同海拔气候变化的时空特征分析

全球变暖是当前全球气候变化研究的热点之一,新疆深居亚欧大陆内陆,地形气候复杂,探讨该区域气候变化与海拔的关系对全球气候变化研究具有重要的参考意义。基于1958—2017年新疆41个气象站的月和年平均气候数据,采用一元线性回归、Mann Kendall（M-K）趋势分析和突变检验等方法分析该地区气候变化的时空分布与海拔的关系。结果表明：1958—2017年新疆年均气温、年均降水量均呈上升趋势,但增加幅度具有时间和空间差异。在时间上,北疆四季平均气温增温幅度均大于南疆（冬季除外）,四季降水量增幅北疆大于南疆（夏季除外）;在空间上,北疆气温和降水的增幅均大于南疆。研究区各个站点气温呈现出南部高而北部低的空间格局,年均降水量北部多,南部低。各个站点气温倾向率总体随海拔增加而减少,年均降水量变化率随海拔升高而增加,在不同海拔带内部存在差异。综上所述,受全球气候变暖的影响,近60 a来新疆年均气温和年均降水量均呈上升趋势,尤其是北疆对全球气候变暖的响应较为敏感。