沪昆高速江西段交通事故气象风险分析和概率预测

利用2015—2017年沪昆高速江西段的交通事故资料和沿线气象观测数据,分析了沪昆高速江西段发生交通事故的天气类型和时空分布特征,建立高敏感天气条件下山区型和平原型高速公路交通事故气象风险概率预测模型。结果表明:2015—2017年沪昆高速万辆车流交通事故日变化表现为显著的单峰型,峰值出现在05时;事故高发月份主要集中在4—6月;事故发生地域性强。除日平均气温外,交通事故与同期的气象条件密切相关。采用逻辑回归方法,分别建立了山区型和平原型高速公路交通事故气象风险概率预测模型,该模型预测准确率达到78.0%和79.9%。进一步运用该模型对2018年1—6月沪昆高速发生的交通事故加以验证,对山区和平原路段高速交通事故预测的准确率达到70.56%和86.37%,预测效果较为理想。     

Spatial and temporal patterns of solar radiation in China from 1957 to 2016

Solar energy is clean and renewable energy that plays an important role in mitigating impacts of environmental problems and climate change. Solar radiation received on the earth’s surface determines the efficiency of power generation and the location and layout of photovoltaic arrays. In this paper, the average daily solar radiation of 77 stations in China from 1957 to 2016 was analyzed in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. The results indicate that Xinjiang, the Qinghai-Tibet Platea...     

中国海相油气田勘探实例之五塔中奥陶系大型凝析气田的勘探和发现

塔中奥陶系碳酸盐岩的勘探始于1989年,直至2005年发现塔中Ⅰ号坡折带奥陶系碳酸盐岩凝析气田,探明加控制石油地质储量1.5×108t(油当量),是我国目前发现的第一个奥陶系生物礁型大油气田。油气的主力产层位于上奥陶统良里塔格组上部,储层为受坡折带控制的陆棚边缘礁滩体石灰岩。油气沿坡折带呈带状展布,为整体含油的大型准层状岩性油气藏。论述了塔中碳酸盐岩大油气田的勘探历程、主要地质特征,以及对海相碳酸盐岩勘探的启示。     

西藏昌都白格滑坡斜坡地质结构特征及成因机制

混杂岩作为一种形成于板块俯冲和碰撞边界的特殊地质体,是由成分、时代、来源不同的岩块混杂堆积组成,岩体具有结构复杂、空间变化快、易蚀变、力学性质差异大等特点,在我国青藏高原地区广泛分布。受青藏高原复杂地质环境影响,混杂岩带往往是地质灾害频发带,对人类的生命财产和工程建设产生了巨大影响。基于此,本文对混杂岩的成因机制和地质特征进行了分析研究,阐述了青藏高原混杂岩带分布、地质特征以及混杂岩带典型地质灾害发育情况。在此基础上,对青藏高原混杂岩带地质灾害研究中存在的问题提出了研究方向,其研究结果可为青藏高原混杂岩带地质灾害研究提供参考。     

0．7Ma以来的念青唐古拉山脉隆升过程——来自冰川剥蚀作用的证据

通过对念青唐古拉山冰碛地层划分及冰碛物同位素测年，发现最早一期冰碛物形成于0．7～0．6MaBP，指示自中更新世以来念青唐古拉山脉开始隆升，主峰地区发生了大规模的冰川剥蚀作用，形成了大面积分布的冰碛高平台；0．2～0．14MaBP念青唐古拉山又快速隆升，并堆积了刚刚伸出各大沟谷口的高侧碛；0．07～0．03MaBP念青唐古拉山再次小规模隆起，形成各大沟谷内的侧碛和终碛垄；0．01Ma BP还有小规模冰川活动。念青唐古拉山主峰地区的冰川剥蚀作用反映出的山脉隆升过程，可较好地与青藏高原的隆起过程相对比，它应是青藏高原隆升的响应。     

新疆阿尔泰克因布拉克铜锌矿床地质特征及成矿作用

克因布拉克中型铜锌矿床赋存于早二叠世花岗岩外接触带的上志留统-下泥盆统康布铁堡组黑云石英片岩、变质石英砂岩中。矿床的形成经历了夕卡岩期、热液期和表生期,铜锌矿主要形成于热液期。矿石中石英和方解石流体包裹体划分为H_2O-NaCl型和H_2O-CO_2(±CH_4/N_2)-NaCl型。成矿温度变化于146～448℃,在170℃、270℃和350℃出现峰值;流体盐度变化于0.2%～46.9%NaCl_(eq),峰值为1.5%NaCl_(eq)和5.5%NaCl_(eq);流体的密度0.55～1.19g/cm~3。硫化物的δ~(34)S集中变化于-8.4‰～1.9‰,峰值为0‰,表明硫来自岩浆。石英和方解石δD_(SMOW)介于-130‰～-79‰,δ~(18)O_(SMOW)值介于8.0‰～11.6‰,δ~(18)O_(H2O)值为-1.7‰～4.43‰,表明成矿流体主要是岩浆水,混合大气降水。方解石中δ~(13)C_(PDB)变化于-5.3‰～-1.1‰,暗示碳来自花岗质岩浆。成矿时代为早中二叠世,成矿作用与花岗质岩浆期后的热液活动有关。     

Stakeholders’ perspective on the sustainable utilization of marine protected areas in Green Island, Taiwan

The management implications of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) cover the interactions and two-way effects between the ecosystem and local residents. Hence, support or resistance from stakeholders is critical to management effectiveness. The inclusion of the perspectives of stakeholders into the MPAs of sustainable utilization can reduce opposition and conflict, improving the effectiveness of MPA management through the input of local residents. This study used interviews, questionnaire surveys, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process to obtain the opinions of different groups regarding the choices and preferences of stakeholders in the assessed factors of the sustainable utilization of MPAs in Green Island, Taiwan. The results showed that the stakeholder groups have a consensus on the “completeness of ecosystems,” “processing of wastes and pollutants,” and “integrated management.” These results provide insight into the varying perspectives held by individual groups, accelerating the integration of different opinions in order to facilitate appropriate solutions and smooth negotiations.     

Inferring trophic variation for Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba) in the Antarctic Peninsula from the austral fall to early winter using stable isotope analysis

The Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba) is a key species in the Southern Ocean ecosystem and an important link in the food web of the Antarctic ecosystem. The trophic information for this species during the transition from the austral fall to the winter is important to understand its poorly known overwintering mechanisms. However, the few studies on the topic differ in their results, in terms of both spatial and temporal variables. We investigated the size dependence and monthly and regional variation in δ~(13) C and δ~(15) N values of adult krill in the Antarctic Peninsula, in the austral fall(April to May) and the early winter(June). We aimed to examine the trophic variations of krill occurred during this period, and the relationship between krill and their feeding environment in the Antarctic marine ecosystem. The following results were obtained:(1) no significant relationship was observed between size and the δ13 C value of krill, but the δ15 N value of krill presented a remarkable association with size;(2)the δ13 C values of krill increased during the austral fall, but no remarkable variation existed at the onset of winter,and the δ15 N values were not significant different during this period;(3) mean δ15 N values of krill differed significantly between the Bransfield Strait and the South Shetland Islands. Our data imply that adult krill present size-, season-, and region-dependent trophic variation during the transition from austral fall to early winter in the Antarctic Peninsula.     

大容量气枪主动源波形资料处理(一):云南宾川

宾川气枪地震信号发射台以水库大容量非调制气枪阵列为震源,可以连续不断地激发重复性极高的地震信号。本文利用其2013年的数据,对地下介质进行了观测。由于水库水位的变化对震源波形及远处台站接收到的地震波形会产生影响,因此,为了区分介质变化与震源变化,研究了陆上水库环境下激发气枪震源所产生的地震波形的特征和合适的处理流程。结果表明:1水库水位变化较大时,同一台站记录的地震波形之间的互相关系数过小,不能直接进行叠加处理,需进行震源聚类分析,而震源聚类受水位变化量的控制;2为消除水位的影响,进行了反褶积处理,当震中距小于10km时,对不同水位激发的信号进行叠加再进行反褶积的效果优于直接进行叠加的效果;3通过互相关计算和信噪比分析发现,4个台站的波形变化可能是由地下介质变化引起的。     

内蒙古锡林浩特岩群岩相学、地球化学特征及构造环境分析

锡林浩特岩群是内蒙古中东部锡林郭勒微地块内原锡林郭勒杂岩的重要组成部分,由一套片麻岩夹层状斜长角闪岩、磁铁石英岩和变粒岩等变质岩组成,形成于中元古代［1］。岩群中片麻岩样品显示轻稀土元素富集的中等分异特征((La/Yb)N=4.71~7.97),斜长角闪岩具有平坦型((La/Yb)N=0.74~0.95)和轻稀土元素微弱富集型((La/Yb)N=1.06~3.63)两种稀土元素配分模式。在微量元素N MORB标准化图解中,斜长角闪岩显示出洋中脊玄武岩和岛弧玄武岩的过渡类型特征。同时结合岩相学和岩石地球化学图解分析,推断片麻岩原岩为富含泥质的亚杂砂岩,而斜长角闪岩原岩为一套具有拉斑质到钙碱性过渡型特征的玄武岩;变质沉积岩形成于活动大陆边缘大陆岛弧环境;变质基性火山岩形成于岛弧弧后盆地。二者指示锡林浩特岩群形成于活动大陆边缘体系。