Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Based on Ensemble Output Using Generalized Additive Models and Bayesian Model Averaging

A probabilistic precipitation forecasting model using generalized additive models (GAMs) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was proposed in this paper.GAMs were used to fit the spatial-temporal precipi...     

川西坳陷丰谷构造上三叠统须家河组四段致密砂岩储层特征

据丰谷地区须家河组的地表剖面、岩心和薄片、测井曲线及常规物性测试资料等的观察、对比分析,认为川西坳陷中段的丰谷地区上三叠统须家河组四段砂岩普遍具有低孔低渗、致密化强、超高压、岩性变化快、非均质性强等特点,但局部仍发育有孔渗性相对较好的层段.根据沉积作用及沉积相、成岩作用类型、构造作用方面来探讨丰谷地区须四段储层的特征及...     

Eastward subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Indo-Myanmese arc revealed by teleseismic P-wave tomography

The deep structure of the eastward-subducting Indian plate can provide new information on the dynamics of the India-Eurasia collision. We collected and processed waveform data from temporary seismic arrays (networks) on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, seismic arrays in Northeast India and Myanmar, and permanent stations of the China Digital Seismic Network in Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Sichuan. We combined these data with phase reports from observation stations of the International Seismological Center on the Indian plate and selected 124,808 high-quality P-wave relative travel-time residuals. Next, we used these data to invert the 3-D P-wave velocity structure of the upper mantle to a depth of 800 km beneath the eastern segment of the arcuate Himalayan orogen, at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The results reveal a high-angle, easterly dipping subducting plate extending more than 200 km beneath the Indo-Myanmese arc. The plate breaks off at roughly 96°E; its fragments have passed through the 410-km discontinuity (D410) into the mantle transition zone (MTZ). The MTZ beneath the Tengchong volcanic area contains a high-velocity anomaly, which does not exceed the Red River fault to the east. No other large-scale continuous subducted plates were observed in the MTZ. However, a horizontally spreading high-velocity anomaly was identified on the D410 in some regions. The anomaly may represent the negatively buoyant 90°E Ridge plate or a thickened and delaminated lithospheric block experiencing collision and compression at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The Tengchong volcano may originate from the mantle upwelling through the slab window formed by the break-off of the subducting Indian continental plate and oceanic plate in the upper mantle. Low-velocity upper mantle materials on the west side of the Indo-Myanmese arc may have supplemented materials to the Tengchong volcano.     

基于灰色关联度模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价

数理统计和机器学习模型如支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)等,在区域滑坡敏感性评价中得到广泛的应用.但这些模型的建模过程往往较复杂,如在对机器学习进行训练和测试时难以选取合理的非滑坡栅格单元,而且有较多的模型参数需要确定.为提高滑坡敏感性评价建模的效率和精度,提出基于灰色关联度的敏感性评价模型.灰色关联度模型能有效计算各比较样本与参考样本之间的定量的关联度,具有建模过程简洁和评价精度高的优点,该模型目前在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的应用还没有引起研究人员的足够关注且有待进一步拓展.拟将灰色关联度模型用于浙江省飞云江流域南田—雅梅图幅(南田地区)的滑坡敏感性评价,并将得到的评价结果与SVM模型的敏感性评价结果作对比分析.结果显示,灰色关联度模型在高和极高敏感区的滑坡预测精度优于SVM模型,而在中等敏感区的滑坡预测精度略低于SVM模型;整体而言,灰色关联度模型对整个南田地区滑坡敏感性分布的预测精度略高于SVM模型.对两个模型建模过程的对比结果显示,灰色关联度模型建模较简单,具有比SVM模型更高的建模效率,为滑坡敏感性评价提供了一种新思路.     

地质体中主要生物分子的研究方法及应用

现代分子生物学,生物化学及有机地球化学等领域的发展,为古生物研究者在发子水平上探索地质生物世界提供了新的概念和技术手段,本文着重讨论了可用于分子古生物学研究的生物分子,例如,维管植物的木质素等稳定生物聚合物,古生物细胞内的类脂化合物,碳水化合物,蛋白质及氨基酸和含遗传信息的核酸,分子古生物资料可用于探讨化石埋藏学,古生物分子系统学,生物演化模式与机制,分子演化速率,古生态环境再造等问题,本文较详细     

山区人为地质灾害问题与思考

人为地质灾害加剧，地质环境恶化，势必阻碍山区经济发展，产生的根源在于人类不妥当的工程经济活动。因此，解决问题的基本途径是从调整人的行为入手，以人为本，综合治理，搞好灾害防治工作，促进山区经济持续发展。     

Occurrence and characteristics of sporadic sodium layer observed by lidar at a mid-latitude location

Na lidar observations of SSL during the past 5 years at a mid-latitude location (Wuhan, China, 31°N, 114°E) are reported in this paper. From 26 SSL events detected in about 230 h of observation, an SSL occurrence rate of 1 event/9 h at our location was obtained. This result, combined with that reported by Nagasawa and Abo (Geophys. Res. Lett. 22 (1995) 263) at Tokyo, Japan, reveals that the SSL occurrence can be relatively frequent at some mid-latitude locations. The statistical analyses of main parameters for the 26 SSL events were made, and the results were compared with those previously reported. By examining the corresponding data from a nearby ionosonde, it was found that there was a fairly good correlation between SSL and Es. Of the 18 pairs of SSL and Es events checked, 15 of SSL were accompanied by Es, and 8 pairs of them were correlated within 1 h in time and within 5 km in altitude. From the analyses of observed perturbations during SSL development, the role of dynamic processes of atmosphere in the SSL formations were emphasized.     

桑沟湾沉积碳库年汇入速率的长期变化及其区域性差异

对取自桑沟湾北西南三根柱样近200 a碳来源及埋藏通量的解析,分析了湾内不同站位各形态碳的差异性,进而对全湾碳埋藏进行了估算。湾内环流、贝藻养殖等造成湾内不同区域碳埋藏的差异;桑沟湾总碳（TC）平均量1.79%,有机碳（TOC）平均量0.54%,无机碳（TIC）平均量1.25%,TOC含量相对较小,为海陆混合来源,以陆源有机碳（C_t）为主,大规模人工养殖后,海源有机碳（C_a）有明显增加的趋势。桑沟湾碳埋藏通量平均为228.9 g/（m2·a）,以无机碳为主要埋藏形式（约占70%）,高的沉积速率及生物残骸沉降使桑沟湾养殖区碳的来源及埋藏区别于其他陆架海域。     

Shift-share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness - A Case of Jiangsu Province

Shift-share analysis has been confirmed a useful approach in the study of regional economics and many kinds of extended shift-share models have been advanced and put into practice in economic studies, but few have hitherto been introduced and applied to the tourism research in China. Moreover understanding the spatially competitive relationship is of paramount importance for marketers, developers, and planners involved in tourism strategy development. Based on international tourism receipts from 1995 to 2004, this study aims at probing into the spatial competitiveness of interna- tional tourism in Jiangsu Province in comparison with its neighbors by applying a spatially extended shift-share model and a modified dynamic shift-share model. The empirical results illustrate that exceptional years may exist in the ap- plication of dynamic shift-share models. To solve this issue, modifications to dynamic shift-share model are put forward. The analytical results are not only presented but also explained by the comparison of background conditions of tourism development between Jiangsu and its key competitors. The conclusions can be drawn that the growth of international tourism receipts in Jiangsu mainly attributes to the national component and the competitive component and Zhejiang is the most important rival to Jiangsu during the period of 1995-2004. In order to upgrade the tourism competitiveness, it is indispensable for Jiangsu to take proper positioning, promoting and marketing strategies and to cooperate and integrate with its main rivals.