基于R型因子分析法的滑坡发育影响因素分析

以陕西省岚皋县境内滑坡为研究对象,借助R型因子分析法,对滑坡发育的影响因素进行分析研究。结果表明：起主导作用的主项因素按照其影响作用的大小依次为滑坡前缘河流影响距、人类工程活动、地形地貌和控滑结构面; 影响较大的分项因素按照其影响作用的大小依次为滑坡体前缘河流影响距、开挖坡脚、原始斜坡坡向、控滑结构面倾向、耕地（占坡体百分比）和滑坡体碎石含量。结合影响滑坡发育的主项因素和分项因素,综合确定影响滑坡发育的主控因素按照其影响的作用大小依次为河流影响距、开挖坡脚、原始斜坡坡向、控滑结构面倾向。该问题的研究不仅可以为滑坡灾害的分析提供新的方法,而且对滑坡灾害的防灾减灾提供了一种新思路。     

梅雨云系中亮带不均匀性的理论探讨

初步理论计算表明,梅雨云系中亮带上方不均匀的回波结构可以直接造成亮带的不均匀性.另外,亮带上方冰晶的形状和尺度,融化区中的液态含水量和融化冰晶的粘并等对亮带的不均匀性也有影响,它们的适当配合可以产生很不均匀的亮带.     

Radial Permeability Measurements for Shale Using Variable Pressure Gradients

Shale gas is becoming an important component of the global energy supply, with permeability a critical controlling factor for long-term gas production. Obvious deviation may exist between helium permeability determined using small pressure gradient(SPG) methods and methane permeability obtained under actual field production with variable pressure gradients(VPG). In order to more accurately evaluate the matrix permeability of shale, a VPG method using real gas(rather than He) is established to render permeability measurements that are more representative of reservoir conditions and hence response. Dynamic methane production experiments were performed to measure permeability using the annular space in the shale cores. For each production stage, boundary pressure is maintained at a constant and the gas production with time is measured on the basis of volume change history in the measuring pump. A mathematical model explicitly accommodating gas desorption uses pseudo-pressure and pseudo-time to accommodate the effects of variations in pressuredependent PVT parameters. Analytical and semi-analytical solutions to the model are obtained and discussed. These provide a convenient approach to estimate radial permeability in the core by nonlinear fitting to match the semi-analytical solution with the recorded gas production data. Results indicate that the radial permeability of the shale determined using methane is in the range of 1×10-6– 1×10-5 mD and decreases with a decrease in average pore pressure. This is contrary to the observed change in permeability estimated using helium. Bedding geometry has a significant influence on shale permeability with permeability in parallel bedding orientation larger than that in perpendicular bedding orientation. The superiority of the VPG method is confirmed by comparing permeability test results obtained from both VPG and SPG methods. Although several assumptions are used, the results obtained from the VPG method with reservoir gas are much closer to reality and may be directly used for actual gas production evaluation and prediction, through accommodating realistic pressure dependent impacts.     

强降水过程中热力切变平流参数的诊断分析

在以往研究的基础上, 本文把对流涡度矢量的垂直分量、水平散度和广义位温的垂直梯度有机地结合起来, 引入热力切变平流参数的概念。本文针对两次强降水过程, 利用NCEP/NCAR全球最终分析资料对热力切变平流参数进行诊断分析, 结果表明, 热力切变平流参数能够比较准确地综合表征雨区上空水平风场切变和湿等熵面漏斗状向下伸展等动力学和热力学典型的垂直结构特征, 因而该参数与降水系统的发展演变密切相关, 与观测的6小时累积地面降水区存在一定的对应关系; 在空间水平分布和时间演变趋势上, 热力切变平流参数的异常值区覆盖着观测的6小时累积地面降水区; 该参数在降水区内表现为强信号, 而在非降水区表现为弱信号。影响热力切变平流参数发展演变的因素分析表明, 该参数倾向方程中通量散度项的异常值区覆盖着观测的6小时累积地面降水区, 表明雨区内通量散度项导致的热力切变平流参数变化比较明显, 其中纬向风速与经向风速相互作用的贡献是不容忽略的。     

Advances in cloud physics and weather modification in China

The capabilities of cloud-resolving numerical models, observational instruments and cloud seeding have improved greatly over recent years in China. The subject of this review focuses on the main progresses made in China in the areas of cloud modeling, field observations, aerosol–cloud interactions, the effects of urbanization on cloud and precipitation, and weather modification.Well-equipped aircraft and ground-based advanced Doppler and polarized radars have been rapidly applied in cloudseeding operations. The combined use of modern techniques such as the Global Positioning System, remote sensing, and Geographical Information Systems has greatly decreased the blindness and uncertainties in weather-modification activities.Weather-modification models based on state-of-the-art cloud-resolving models are operationally run at the National Weather Modification Centre in China for guiding weather-modification programs.Despite important progress having been made, many critical issues or challenges remain to be solved, or require stronger scientific evidence and support, such as the chain of physical events involved in the effects induced by cloud seeding. Current important progresses in measurements and seeding techniques provide the opportunity and possibility to reduce these deficiencies. Long-term scientific projects aimed at reducing these key uncertainties are extremely urgent and important for weather-modification activities in China.     

黄河上游河曲地区对流云催化增雨的数值模拟研究

应用中国科学院大气物理研究所开发的三维对流云模式,对青藏高原河曲地区强对流云的催化增雨效果及催化云的动力特征、微物理机制进行了模拟研究.模拟结果显示:黄河上游河曲地区的对流云具备一定的催化潜力.如果催化时机、部位选择适当,降水总量增加有望达到30%～50%,催化所产生的动力效果比较显著.催化剂的加入使得云中凝华潜热释放量增加,上升气流加强,云顶升高,云水平尺度也有所加大,地面降水区域扩大,降水时间延长.由于云中冰晶大量生成,导致过冷云水、雨水减少,暖雨过程迅速减弱,云中霰和冻滴量增多,其融化过程加强引起的降水增加远远超过了暖雨量的减少,总的增雨效果比较显著.敏感性实验表明,催化高度对增雨效果的影响最为显著,高于某一催化高度,有可能产生增雨防雹的好效果;低于某一催化高度,则会在防雹的同时使地面降水减少.对流云早期催化的增雨效果较好.一定范围内催化剂量的变化对增雨量影响不大,小剂量催化也有可能达到较好的增雨效果.     

航空伽玛能谱数据在扎兰屯地区铀成矿预测中的应用

受森林分布广、覆盖厚及矿体隐伏等因素制约,大兴安岭成矿带扎兰屯地区铀矿找矿进展缓慢。航空伽玛能谱数据蕴含有丰富的铀矿化信息,除地表矿化信息外,亦含有部分深部铀矿化弱信息。文章在对扎兰屯地区典型铀矿点成矿地质特征及伽玛能谱特征分析的基础上,利用K、U、Th元素含量之间的地球化学特征差异,构建了2个航放参数模型（ΔU高值晕、F高值晕）,增强航放微弱异常信息;在航放异常信息提取、优选的基础上,结合地质、化探等找矿有利信息,预测铀成矿远景区7处;其中2处远景区成矿地质条件优越,异常线索丰富,尚属铀矿空白区,在进一步工作中应引起重视。     

梅雨锋云系和降水的若干研究

本文介绍了梅雨锋云系中不同部位的回波结构、降水和层结特征,中尺度系统的回波结构及其与暴雨的关系,亮带的不均匀性及其理论研究以及积层混合云中积云降水的数值模拟工作.     

内蒙古鄂温克族自治旗红花尔基斜长花岗岩的发现及锆石SHRIMP UPb测年结果

内蒙古鄂温克族自治旗红花尔基一带基岩出露情况差,地质工作程度低,以往工作所发现的侵入岩均划分进入中石炭世。通过对1∶5万区域地质调查工作,对发现的斜长花岗岩进行锆石SHRIMP U-Pb定年,所获得年龄为(172.2±1.3)Ma,更改为中侏罗世侵入体。推断红花尔基斜长花岗岩的形成是为中生代中、小块体之间的俯冲碰撞触发了新元古代加入地壳的亏损地幔物质熔融所形成。