川西地区地质灾害发育特征与时空分布规律

川西地区受青藏高原隆升和发育于青藏高原的大江大河深切割等作用,共发育地质灾害16411处,以滑坡和泥石流为主,是我国地质灾害高风险地区。本文采用资料收集、数理统计、Arcgis软件分析等方法分析发现,川西地质灾害具有成因机制复杂,突发性、群发性与链生性、危害大等特点。形成机理差异大,滑坡变形模式以滑移-拉裂、蠕滑-剪断、倾倒折断等模式为主;泥石流形成机理主要为土力-水力驱动型和堵溃型;崩塌失稳主要表现为滑移式、倾倒式和坠落式。发育分布规律在低山和中山区呈带状,和沿活动断裂带和深切河谷呈线状集中分布;受地震和强降雨影响,地质灾害年际变化大,2008、2009、2013年、2017年地质灾害频发、高发和群发期。     

藏东江达县丁钦弄银铜多金属矿床深部找矿预测

西藏丁钦弄银铜多金属矿床是近年来在藏东地区发现的具大型远景的接触交代（矽卡岩）型银铜多金属矿床,该矿床位于羌塘三江成矿区之江达德钦成矿带北段。成矿作用包括陆内裂谷期的矽卡岩化成矿作用及陆内造山期构造—岩浆—热液对先成矿体的叠加改造及独立成矿作用。基于对矽卡岩矿床分带模式结合矿区实际情况的分析辅以地球物理证据,预测Ⅰ2 号矿体及Ⅱ号矿体的深部找矿前景较好。两矿体含矿岩石均为锰质矽卡岩,处于侵入体与围岩的外接触带,且视电阻率、视极化率异常均显示深部存在隐伏矿体。     

微量元素及重矿物判别分析在西昆仑山前第三系划分对比中的应用

采用微量元素和重矿物判别分析方法解决百昆仑山前长期未解决的红色哑地层划分对比问题。微量元素和重矿物与沉积环境及物源性质密切相关。不同时期，不同水系（物源区）的沉积岩具有不同的重矿物和微量元素特征。在西昆仑山前初步建立了３条微量元素和重矿物标准剖面，每条剖面均建立了划分组段的微量元素和重矿物两套判别函数。用以解决地面或井下未知层位样品的判别归属问题，经地面和井下验证取得初步成效。     

三维冰雹云催化数值模式

为了研究冰雹形成机制、催化防雹机制和通过数值试验获得冰雹云优化催化技术,在以前工作的基础上,发展了一个３维弹性冰雹云催化数值模式。模式考虑了冰雹云中详细的微物理过程,各种粒子采用双变参数谱,将云中水物质分成水汽、云水、雨水、冰晶、雪、霰、冻滴和雹８类,可以预报粒子的比浓度和比含量,尤其可以计算以霰或冻滴为胚胎的雹块的数量,非常适合研究冰雹的形成机制。此外,建立了催化剂ＡｇＩ的守恒方程,考虑了人工冰核的凝华核化及与云、雨滴接触的冻结核化过程,并用地面降雹动能通量检验催化防雹效果,因此,也可以研究催化防雹机制和对雹云的催化技术。     

梅雨锋云系和降水的若干研究

本文介绍了梅雨锋云系中不同部位的回波结构、降水和层结特征,中尺度系统的回波结构及其与暴雨的关系,亮带的不均匀性及其理论研究以及积层混合云中积云降水的数值模拟工作.     

梅雨云系中亮带不均匀性的理论探讨

初步理论计算表明,梅雨云系中亮带上方不均匀的回波结构可以直接造成亮带的不均匀性.另外,亮带上方冰晶的形状和尺度,融化区中的液态含水量和融化冰晶的粘并等对亮带的不均匀性也有影响,它们的适当配合可以产生很不均匀的亮带.     

不同倒角半径柱体绕流数值模拟及水动力特性分析

为研究倒角半径变化对柱体绕流水动力特性的影响,本文使用Fluent软件,采用大涡模拟对雷诺数Re=3 900下的6种不同倒角半径的三维柱体进行了研究。在模型验证基础上,分析了由方柱渐变到圆柱过程中后方流场速度的时均特性及瞬时涡脱落变化规律,给出了不同倒角半径下的升、阻力系数值及无量纲涡脱频率St数。分析结果表明:平均阻力系数随倒角半径的增加而降低,在倒角半径为0.2D时下降速率最大,相较方柱降幅达到50%;升力系数均方根在倒角半径为0.1D~0.2D时变化最显著,减小约93%; St数随倒角半径增加而增大,在倒角半径为0.4D时可达到最大值;回流区长度随倒角半径的增加呈先增大后减小的趋势,其长度在倒角半径为0.2D时达到最大;尾涡宽度在倒角半径为0.0D最大,后随倒角半径增加逐渐下降,且当倒角半径大于0.2D以后变化不大。本文研究结果可为柱体绕流研究及相关工程应用提供参考。     

Radial Permeability Measurements for Shale Using Variable Pressure Gradients

Shale gas is becoming an important component of the global energy supply, with permeability a critical controlling factor for long-term gas production. Obvious deviation may exist between helium permeability determined using small pressure gradient(SPG) methods and methane permeability obtained under actual field production with variable pressure gradients(VPG). In order to more accurately evaluate the matrix permeability of shale, a VPG method using real gas(rather than He) is established to render permeability measurements that are more representative of reservoir conditions and hence response. Dynamic methane production experiments were performed to measure permeability using the annular space in the shale cores. For each production stage, boundary pressure is maintained at a constant and the gas production with time is measured on the basis of volume change history in the measuring pump. A mathematical model explicitly accommodating gas desorption uses pseudo-pressure and pseudo-time to accommodate the effects of variations in pressuredependent PVT parameters. Analytical and semi-analytical solutions to the model are obtained and discussed. These provide a convenient approach to estimate radial permeability in the core by nonlinear fitting to match the semi-analytical solution with the recorded gas production data. Results indicate that the radial permeability of the shale determined using methane is in the range of 1×10-6– 1×10-5 mD and decreases with a decrease in average pore pressure. This is contrary to the observed change in permeability estimated using helium. Bedding geometry has a significant influence on shale permeability with permeability in parallel bedding orientation larger than that in perpendicular bedding orientation. The superiority of the VPG method is confirmed by comparing permeability test results obtained from both VPG and SPG methods. Although several assumptions are used, the results obtained from the VPG method with reservoir gas are much closer to reality and may be directly used for actual gas production evaluation and prediction, through accommodating realistic pressure dependent impacts.     

Advances in cloud physics and weather modification in China

The capabilities of cloud-resolving numerical models, observational instruments and cloud seeding have improved greatly over recent years in China. The subject of this review focuses on the main progresses made in China in the areas of cloud modeling, field observations, aerosol–cloud interactions, the effects of urbanization on cloud and precipitation, and weather modification.Well-equipped aircraft and ground-based advanced Doppler and polarized radars have been rapidly applied in cloudseeding operations. The combined use of modern techniques such as the Global Positioning System, remote sensing, and Geographical Information Systems has greatly decreased the blindness and uncertainties in weather-modification activities.Weather-modification models based on state-of-the-art cloud-resolving models are operationally run at the National Weather Modification Centre in China for guiding weather-modification programs.Despite important progress having been made, many critical issues or challenges remain to be solved, or require stronger scientific evidence and support, such as the chain of physical events involved in the effects induced by cloud seeding. Current important progresses in measurements and seeding techniques provide the opportunity and possibility to reduce these deficiencies. Long-term scientific projects aimed at reducing these key uncertainties are extremely urgent and important for weather-modification activities in China.     

2021年漾濞MW6.1地震同震形变提取与断层源模型反演研究

基于D-InSAR技术,收集Sentinel-1卫星升、降轨及精密轨道数据,结合外部DEM,成功提取2021-05-21云南省大理州漾濞县M_W6.1地震的同震形变场。结果显示,升轨卫星视线向最大形变量级约为6.0 cm,降轨卫星视线向最大形变量级约为7.9 cm。以升、降轨InSAR观测结果为约束,对漾濞地震的断层几何参数及滑动分布进行联合反演发现,此次地震的最优发震断层走向为136.6°、倾角为83.1°,断层破裂主要集中在地下2~12 km深度处,最大滑动量约为0.45 m,位于地下7 km深度处,断层在近地表未出现大面积显著滑移现象,表明此次地震未破裂至地表。