Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions in Bifurcation Situations with Guidance-On-Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

An objective technique to detect and predict intensity bifurcation situations in a five-day Weighted Analog Intensity forecast technique for the western North Pacific (WAIP) has been extended to seven days. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to the N analog intensities to separate them into two clusters, which are considered to represent a substantial intensity bifurcation if a threshold maximum velocity difference of 15 kt is satisfied. Two important modifications have been made to develop the bifurcation version for seven-day WAIP forecasts. First, the number of track analogs has been increased from 10 analogs to 16 analogs, which results in larger sample sizes and better performance. Second, separate intensity bias corrections are calculated for the two cluster WAIP forecasts rather than using the same 16-analog intensity bias correction. If an always perfect selection of the correct cluster WAIP forecast of each bifurcation situation is made, a substantial improvement in the intensity mean absolute errors is achieved relative to the original WAIP forecasts based on all 16 of the best analogs. These perfect-cluster selection WAIP forecasts have smaller bias errors and are more highly correlated with the verifying intensities at all forecast intervals through 168 h. Furthermore, the Probability of Detection is improved for the perfect-cluster selection and more realistic intensity spreads are specified. A simple guidance-on-guidance technique is demonstrated to assist the forecasters in selecting the correct WAIP cluster forecast in bifurcation situations.     

北极地区地质构造及主要构造事件

北极地区范围很广,北极圈面积达2 100×10⁴ km²,区域地质复杂。通过对北极地区区域地质编图,笔者认为前寒武纪主要由波罗的、劳伦和西伯利亚三大克拉通,以及其间的微板块或地块组成。主要造山带包括新元古代-早寒武世的贝加尔造山带、晚志留世-早石炭世的加里东造山带、晚古生代-早中生代的海西造山带、晚中生代的上扬斯克造山带、新西伯利亚造山带与楚科奇-布鲁克斯造山带。根据北极地区区域地质构造特征,显生宙以来经历的构造事件大致包括:新元古代-早寒武世的贝加尔运动,致使波罗的古陆与斯瓦尔巴-喀拉地块碰撞造山;晚泥盆世-早石炭世的加里东运动,在劳伦古陆周边形成规模巨大的加里东造山带;晚古生代的海西运动,波罗的古陆与西伯利亚古陆的碰撞造山形成海西造山带;北极阿拉斯加-楚科奇微板块裂离加拿大边缘,侏罗纪加拿大海盆开始张开;早白垩世,阿拉斯加-楚科奇微板块继续与西伯利亚碰撞,阿纽伊洋(Anyui Ocean)消亡,形成上扬斯克-布鲁克斯造山带。受北极调查程度影响,许多问题有待进一步研究。     

Lateral cyclic response of an aluminum model pile in sand

Lateral cyclic load tests were performed on an aluminum model pile in dry sand. Two levels of loading were adopted to represent different service load conditions. The maximum number of loading cycles was 1,000. From the test results, it was found that the even though in the service load condition, the pile response was still affected by cyclic effects and a larger load level would produce more significant influence. In a global point of view, the lateral displacement and maximum moment increased with loading cycles, while the secant stiffness within a cycle decreased with cycles. The cyclic effect was more significant on the lateral displacement than on the moment. In a local point of view, cyclic loading would degrade the equivalent subgrade stiffness for the soil shallower than about seven times diameter. In addition, the secant subgrade stiffness within a cycle increased with loading cycles. Some experimental relationships of lateral pile response and loading cycles were built and compared with those in the literature.     

Spatial distribution of soil erosion and suspended sediment transport rate for Chou-Shui river basin

In this study, a Physiographic Soil Erosion–Deposition Model (PSED) is applied for better management of a watershed. The PSED model can effectively evaluate the key parameters of watershed management: surface runoff discharge, suspended sediment transport rate, quantity of soil erosion, and spatial distribution of soil erosion and deposition. A basin usually contains multiple watersheds. These watersheds may have complex topography and heterogeneous physiographic properties. The PSED model, containing a physiographic rainfall-runoff model and a basin scale erosion–deposition model, can simulate the physical mechanism of the entire erosion process based on a detailed calculation of bed-load transportation, surface soil entrainment, and the deposition mechanism. With the assistance of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the PSED model can handle and analyze extremely large hydrologic and physiographic datasets and simulate the physical erosion process without the need for simplification. We verified the PSED model using three typhoon events and 40 rainfall events. The application of PSED to Chou-Shui River basin shows that the PSED model can accurately estimate discharge hydrographs, suspended sediment transport rates, and sediment yield. Additionally, we obtained reasonable quantities of soil erosion as well as the spatial distribution of soil erosion and deposition. The results show that the PSED model is capable of calculating spatially distributed soil erosion and suspended sediment transport rates for a basin with multiple watersheds even if these watersheds have complex topography and heterogeneous physiographic properties.     

Pseudo‐dynamic test of a full‐scale CFT/BRB frame—Part II: Seismic performance of buckling‐restrained braces and connections

This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper describing a full‐scale 3‐story 3‐bay concrete‐filled tube (CFT)/buckling‐restrained braced frame (BRBF) specimen tested using psuedo‐dynamic testing procedures. The first paper described the specimen design, experiment, and simulation, whereas this paper focuses on the experimental responses of BRBs and BRB‐to‐gusset connections. This paper first evaluates the design of the gusset connections and the effects of the added edge stiffeners in improving the seismic performance of gusset connections. Test results suggest that an effective length factor of 2.0 should be considered for the design of the gusset plate without edge stiffeners. Tests also confirm that the cumulative plastic deformation (CPD) capacity of the BRBs adopted in the CFT/BRBF was lower than that found in typical component tests. The tests performed suggest that the reduction in the BRB CPD capacities observed in this full‐scale frame specimen could be due to the significant rotational demands imposed on the BRB‐to‐gusset joints. A simple method of computing such rotational demands from the frame inter‐story drift response demand is proposed. This paper also discusses other key experimental responses of the BRBs, such as effective stiffness, energy dissipation, and ductility demands. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

芦山M7．0地震余震分布特征

使用双差定位方法,对2013年4月20日08时02分芦山 M 7．0地震后近10天的余震进行重新定位,获得精度较高的重定位结果;在此基础上,对余震空间分布特征进行研究,推测芦山主震的发震断层可能为大川-双石主断裂东侧的一条次级隐伏逆冲断层。     

2020年7月12日唐山MS5.1地震预警处理能力分析

2020年7月12日,河北唐山发生M_S5.1地震,河北省地震预警系统成功地处理并产出了这次地震预警各种结果数据,本文借助此次地震对河北地震预警网内震中距200km范围内台站产出质量以及地震预警前5次处理结果进行详细分析。此次地震发生在河北地震预警网内,平均台间距为10km,首台触发后3s、震后6s发布首次处理结果,与编目结果相比,震级偏差为-1.3,震中位置偏差为2.6km,盲区半径为18km。随着参与定位台站数量增多,震级与位置偏差越来越小,但震级仍整体偏小。河北地震预警网台站产出质量整体较高,其中烈度台作为地震预警最重要的组成部分,是决定预警效果的关键因素。本次地震震中距200km范围内,烈度台平均信噪比为48,震中距50km范围内平均信噪比为112,符合预警系统对信噪比的要求。本次地震预警结果表明,河北地震预警网内台站布局基本合理,波形质量较高,地震预警系统处理软件在本次地震中预警产出效果较好,已经具备了一定的地震预警能力。     

Numerical modeling of rainstorm-induced shallow landslides in saturated and unsaturated soils

For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’ equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise, the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model. The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant for large rainfall intensity.     

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国钾长石矿产资源分布、开发利用、问题与对策

我国钾长石矿产资源丰富,分布广泛,其中安徽、内蒙古、新疆、四川、山西等省(区)的钾长石分布相对集中,储量丰富,成为当地的优势非金属矿产资源。随着科学技术的发展,钾长石广泛应用于工业生产。我国在利用钾长石生产玻璃、陶瓷、化肥等方面都取得了一些进展。但还存在钾长石市场不完善;生产企业缺乏竞争力;钾长石产品技术含量低等问题。应通过进一步深入研究制定解决市场、技术、产品等问题的相应对策,促进钾长石在相应领域的开发利用。