气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

上海青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达和南汇WSR-88D雷达数据对比分析

上海青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达和南汇WSR 88D雷达型号不同,并且采用不同的双偏振技术升级方案,实际业务运行中2部雷达存在一定的数据偏差。为了对雷达的探测性能进行定量评估,在共同探测区域遴选2022年7—9月及2023年6月共30个过程3933个时次数据,以稳定性降水与对流性降水分类并按强度分级进行对比,评估了反射率因子ZH,差分反射率ZDR,相关系数CC和差分传播相移ΦDP的水平分布特征及随方位变化趋势,雷达灵敏度随仰角变化趋势以及ZH和ZDR偏差的定量统计。结果表明：2部雷达ZH的观测结果接近,青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达的ZH,CC和ΦDP受地物及避雷针影响较大,随方位变化不稳定,青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达在低层的非气象回波滤除效果较南汇WSR 88D雷达差。2部雷达ZH和ZDR的偏差在ZH大于40 dBz的区域较大,ZH平均偏差为0.9 dB,ZDR为-0.14 dB。本文基于台风、冰雹、短时强降水和梅雨降水数据,定量化评估了上海2部S波段双偏振天气雷达数据之间的差异,为后续算法改进以及数据订正提供参考。     

MASNUM海浪数值模式业务化预报与检验

介绍了MASNUM(Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海浪数值预报系统,并利用全球和西北太平洋的Jason-1卫星数据和NDBC浮标数据中的海浪波高观测,对该预报系统进行了自2007年8月1日-2007年12月31日5个月的24,48和72 h预报结果的比较检验.模式校验结果表明,有效波高预报与观测的绝均差在0.5 m左右,从夏季到冬季,预报精度不断提高,与风场冬季预报精度较高吻合.     

淹没植物对河道糙率的影响

基于河道水动力及植物柔性变形分析,建立淹没状态下的植物河道糙率计算的理论关系,同时,利用试验资料及理论分析成果,进一步获得了植物河道糙率的附加值,借此可以分析与评价河道植物对水流阻力的影响程度.     

The mapping methods and division of tectonic units of the regional tectonic map in the eastern China seas and adjacent regions

The geological-geophysical map series of the eastern China seas and adjacent region (1:1 000 000) will be published in the late half year of 2009. The regional tectonic map is one of the main professional maps. The Mapping methods, the division method of geological tectonic units and the main geological tectonic units are mainly discussed. The strata from Pliocene to Holocene are peeled off so as to display the Pre-Pliocene structures. In basins, isopaches are drawn for the Cenozoic deposits. The plate tectonic theory and present tectonic pattern are adopted as the priorities in tectonic division. As to the division of intraplate tectonic units, it is a revision, complement and improvement of previous dividing systems, and the nomenclature for each tectonic unit follows the current system in China. The first-order tectonic unit is plate (Pacific Plate, Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate). The second-order tectonic unit is tectonic domain (East Asian continental tectonic domain,East Asian continental margin tectonic domain and west Pacific tectonic domain). The Philippine Sea Plate and the west part of the Pacific Plate are called the West Pacific tectonic domain. The part of the Eurasian Plate involved in this study area can be further divided into East Asian continental tectonic domain and East Asian continental margin tectonic domain. The East Asian continental margin domain is composed of the Ryukyu island arc, the Okinawa Trough back-arc basin and the back-arc basin of Sea of Japan. The East Asian continental tectonic domain in this study area is composed of the Sino-Korea Massif, the Changjiang River (Yangtze) Massif and South China Massif. In turn, these massifs consist of basins, folded belts or uplift zones. The basins,the folded belts or the uplift zones are further divided into uplifts and depressions made up of sags and swells.     

Growth of marine bacteria and ammonium regeneration from substrates in different C: N ratios

Natural assemblages of marine bacteria were chosen in a batch culture experiments. The impact of varying nitrogen substrate concentrations and the substrate C:N ratios (C:N_S) on the bacterial C:N ratio (C:N_B), the bacterial growth efficiency (BGE) and ammonium regeneration was mainly examined. The C:N_S ratios varied from 5:1 (carbon limitation) to 40:1 (nitrogen limitation) with varying combinations of glucose and NO₃^-. The C:N_B ratio had positive relationship with the C:N_S ratio (r=0.93, n=8), whose value was 3.77 when the C:N_S ratio was 5:1 but increased to 6.47 when the C:NS ratio was 40:1. These results indicate that the C:N_B ratio is a potential diagnostic tool for determining the bacterial growth in natural waters controlled by either, carbon or nitrogen. BGE decreased with the declining nitrate concentration and negatively related to C:N_s (r=-0.51, n=8). The average value of BGE was 0.20. This value was a little lower than other reports, which could be induced by the nitrogen source used in our experiments. Finally, regeneration time of ammonium delayed with the increasing C:N_S ratio, which indicates that there were different metabolism mechanisms when bacterial growth was limited by carbon source and nitrogen source.     

夏季长江口外海区域上升流现象的数值研究

基于Blumberg等(1996)的ECOMSED模式,对长江口外海区域夏季的上升流现象进行了数值模拟.模式综合考虑径流,风应力,环流,热通量和M_2,S_2,K_1,O_1四个主要分潮的作用,从而提高长江口外海区域上升流模拟的准确性和可靠性,并通过各种控制实验分析了其动力机制,进一步说明本区域影响上升流的主要因子.数值实验表明,长江口外水下河谷的南边(杭州湾口门中心东侧),上升流主要是由向北流动的台湾暖流通过底Ekman效应和陆坡的抬升共同作用产生的.夏季偏南风对长江口外水下河谷西侧上升流的产生有一定影响,但作用不大.此外,潮汐潮流对上升流的产生也起着一定的作用,但在本文关注的上升流区潮作用影响不大.     

引水工程复杂水流的二、三维嵌套数值模拟

建立宽浅河道与管道水流的二、三维嵌套的数学模型,对基本的控制方程、方程的数值离散格式和求解方法、嵌套连接和初始边界条件等问题进行研究.利用上述方法对某工程实例进行计算,在宽广水域上给出了水力要素的平面分布,在复杂边界强三维流动的计算区域得到其三维运动特性.计算结果与实验资料进行了比较,两者吻合较好,说明嵌套连接的二、三维数学模型是解决某些实际工程问题的一种可靠的和有效的工具.     

以“3S”集成技术为基础的“LBS”极地应用研究

分析了极地环境特点,并根据极地的基本情况确定极地位置服务(LBS)的系统架构,详细介绍了在极地位置服务中所用到的技术内容及技术特点,主要包括车辆和人员的监控技术、基于PDA的定位技术及极地的通讯技术等.     

Establishment and application of an intelligent treating method for oil spill identification

In the identifying process of an oil spill accident, manual integral and artificial visual comparison are commonly used at present to determine the oil spill sources, these methods are time-consuming and easily affected by human factors. Therefore, it is difficult to achieve the purpose of rapid identification of an oil spill accident. In this paper, an intelligent method of automatic recognition, integration and calculation of diagnostic ratio of Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer (GC/MS) spectrum are established. Firstly, four hundreds of samples collected around the world were analyzed using a standard method and Retention time locking technology (RTL) was applied to reduce the change of retention time of GC/MS spectrum. Secondly, the automatic identification, integration of n-alkanes, biomarker compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and calculation of the diagnostic ratios were realized by MATLAB software. Finally, a database of oil fingerprints were established and applied successfully in a spill oil accident. Based on the new method and database, we could acquire the diagnostic ratios of an oil sample and find out the suspected oil within a few minutes. This method and database can improve the efficiency in spilled oil identification.