利用贵阳单站对流参数的强降水潜势预报方法研究

该文利用2002-2011年10 a的常规观测资料,筛选出贵阳单站24 h强降水、12 h强降水及6h强降水个例.对大气温湿类、层结稳定度、热力及能量类物理指标与强降水进行相关性统计分析,确立了相关性较好的常用物理指标(IQ、K、mK、SWEAT、Tg).通过分析降水前后其物理指标的变化特征,并利用成功指数建立指标预警阈值.再利用逐步消空法和BP神经网络集成方法对指标进行集成,得到相应的预报模型,从而建立了贵阳强对流天气未来0～6h,0～12h的潜势预报的预警预报指标,对贵阳地区降雨预报具有一定的指示作用.分析表明,利用逐步消空法建立的预报模型要优于BP神经网络集成的模型.     

陕西省泾惠渠灌区土壤重金属地质累积指数评价

通过对陕西省泾惠渠灌区现场调查及土壤样品的采集,分析了灌区土壤中Hg、Cd、Cr、Pb、As、Cu、Zn等7种元素的含量,应用地质累积指数对灌区土壤进行了评价。结果表明：从区域分布看,阎良区、临潼区、高陵县所属采样点污染较严重;Hg污染最严重,地质累积指数为1.007～3.117,58%的采样点级别为3级,属中度污染到强污染,38%的采样点级别为2级,属中度污染;Zn污染程度次之,地质累积指数为-0.407～1.644,71%的采样点级别为1级,属无污染到中污染;Cd污染变异程度最大,地质累积指数为-2.705～3.312,70%的采样点级别0级,属无污染,但个别采样点达到了强污染;Cu的地质累积指数为-0.535～0.421,Pb为-1.119～-0.144,Cr为-1.005～-0.458,As为-0.562～0.077,除个别点外这些重金属污染级别皆为0级,属无污染。     

南海西部盐水层CO2埋存潜力评估

南海西部东方1-1、崖城13-1和乐东等气田具有CO2含量高的特点,每年从生产出的天然气中分离出大量的CO2。为了减少CO2在大气中的排放,考虑在莺歌海地区选择合适的盐水层埋存体,拟进行CO2地质埋存示范工程。根据CO2在盐水层中的各种埋存机理,并考虑盐水层构造特征对CO2运移分布的影响,提出了一种较为准确的CO2埋存潜力评估方法,并利用此方法对筛选出的5个备选盐水层进行了评估。评估结果表明,各盐水层埋存潜力巨大,都远远大于示范工程期限内预计的CO2埋存总量,并可将这些盐水层作为将来海南省及临近广东省人为CO2的埋存场所。南海西部东方1-1、崖城13-1和乐东等气田具有CO2含量高的特点,每年从生产出的天然气中分离出大量的CO2。为了减少CO2在大气中的排放,考虑在莺歌海地区选择合适的盐水层埋存体,拟进行CO2地质埋存示范工程。根据CO2在盐水层中的各种埋存机理,并考虑盐水层构造特征对CO2运移分布的影响,提出了一种较为准确的CO2埋存潜力评估方法,并利用此方法对筛选出的5个备选盐水层进行了评估。评估结果表明,各盐水层埋存潜力巨大,都远远大于示范工程期限内预计的CO2埋存总量,并可将这些盐水层作为将来海南省及临近广东省人为CO2的埋存场所。     

缝洞型油藏大尺度可视化水驱油物理模拟实验及机理

缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏由于其缝洞组合关系的复杂性,使得储层流体的渗流规律有别于常规油藏。根据某油田奥陶系缝洞型碳酸盐岩的实际情况设计制作了大尺度可视化物理模型,并按照现场实际设计了二注三采的实验井网及注采方案,以应用物理模拟实验来研究缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏的开发特征及油井生产规律。结合实验结果,利用J.Cruz-Hernández建立的数学模型对生产数据进行拟合,以研究缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏中流体的渗流机理,J.Cruz-Hernández数学模型中的空间系数和流动速度对采收率影响较大,提出模型的改进应考虑重力分异作用、溶洞比例等影响因素。     

滇东南中三叠统法郎组锰矿床成因的新认识

产于滇东南中三叠世拉丁期法郎组地层中的锰矿床,锰矿石出现氧化锰矿与碳酸盐锰矿混合存在现象,没有明显的变质现象,为沉积成因。矿石中一般都含有生物碎屑。我们对采自这一地区的斗南、岩子脚、老乌,土基冲等典型矿床的锰矿石样品,进行了系统的薄片显微镜和扫描电镜观察,同时应用X射线衍射对矿石矿物成份作了相应分析。观察到这些矿石中的鲕、豆状结构是由蓝绿藻类微生物凝聚作用形成的显微叠层构造,具有核形石特有的核心和包壳,其明—暗纹层相间的显微结构特征可以与现代深海大洋铁锰结核相类比。本文通过对核形石显微结构特征的观察和对锰矿物生成时介质环境的讨论,初步研究结果表明,锰矿形成可能位于古氧化还原界面附近,该区锰的富集可能与微生物活动密切相关。     

Spatial and temporal variations of coastlines in northern China (2000-2012)

This study examined the spatial distribution of the continent coastline in northern China using remote sensing and GIS techniques, and calculated the fractal dimension of the coastline by box-counting method, with a time span from 2000 to 2012. Moreover, we analyzed the characteristics of spatial-temporal changes in the coastline's length and fractal dimension, the relationship between the length change and fractal dimension change, and the driving forces of coastline changes in northern China. During the research period, the coastline of the study area increased by 637.95 km, at a rate of 53.16 km per year. On the regional level, the most significant change in coastline length was observed in Tianjin and Hebei. Temporally, the northern China coastline grew faster after 2008. The most dramatic growth was found between 2010 and 2011, with an increasing rate of 2.49% per year. The fractal dimension of the coastline in northern China was increasing during the research period, and the most dramatic increase occurred in Bohai Rim. There is a strong-positive linear relationship between the historical coastline length and fractal dimension (the correlation coefficient was 0.9962). Through statistical analysis of a large number of local coastline changes, it can be found that the increase (or decrease) of local coastline length will, in most cases, lead to the increase (or decrease) of the whole coastline fractal dimension. Civil-coastal engineering construction was the most important factor driving the coastline change in northern China. Port construction, fisheries facilities and salt factories were the top three construction activities. Compared to human activities, the influence of natural processes such as estuarine deposit and erosion were relatively small.     

中国南海区1992-2012年的中尺度涡旋演化过程表达与统计分析

Automated identification and tracking of mesoscale ocean eddies has recently become one research hotspot in physical oceanography. Several methods have been developed and applied to survey the general kinetic and geometric characteristics of the ocean eddies in the South China Sea（SCS）. However, very few studies attempt to examine eddies＇ internal evolution processes. In this study, we reported a hybrid method to trace eddies＇ propagation in the SCS based on their internal structures, which are characterized by eddy centers, footprint borders, and composite borders. Eddy identification and tracking results were represented by a GIS-based spatiotemporal model. Information on instant states, dynamic evolution processes, and events of disappearance, reappearance, split, and mergence is stored in a GIS database. Results were validated by comparing against the ten Dongsha Cyclonic Eddies（DCEs） and the three long-lived anticyclonic eddies（ACEs） in the northern SCS, which were reported in previous literature. Our study confirmed the development of these eddies. Furthermore, we found more DCE-like and ACE-like eddies in these areas from 2005 to 2012 in our database. Spatial distribution analysis of disappearing, reappearing, splitting, and merging activities shows that eddies in the SCS tend to cluster to the northwest of Luzon Island, southwest of Luzon Strait, and around the marginal sea of Vietnam. Kuroshio intrusions and the complex sea floor topography in these areas are the possible factors that lead to these spatial clusters.     

海拉尔盆地牧原凹陷油气勘探前景与有利区带目标优选

牧原凹陷是海拉尔盆地群中研究程度和勘探程度均较低的凹陷,尚未取得勘探突破。为明确牧原凹陷的油气资源潜力与勘探前景,开展了野外地质调查、老井复查与烃源岩有机地球化学特征研究等,基本明确了凹陷油气地质条件: ①牧原凹陷具有单断箕状结构,可划分为陡坡带、洼槽带和缓坡带3个构造单元; ②发育大磨拐河组、南屯组和兴安岭群3套有效烃源岩,南屯组、大磨拐河组烃源岩厚度大,分布面积广,有机质类型好,以II₁-I型为主,有机质丰度高,生烃潜量大,热演化进入成熟阶段,是凹陷主力烃源岩,兴安岭群烃源岩有机质丰度高,处于高成熟阶段,虽然厚度与分布有限,也是一套有价值的烃源岩; ③发育兴安岭群的自生自储或上生下储、大磨拐河组与南屯组的自生自储、伊敏组的下生上储3套储盖组合。对比高勘探程度区单断箕状凹陷的成藏规律,结合牧原凹陷自身的地质特点,构建了牧原凹陷油气成藏模式。通过开展区带的初步评价,优选出2个有利区带,提出了勘探目标。     

Compare on characteristic of different chemical type salt lake brines from Tibet during evaporating

正1 Introduction China is a country which has many salt lakes.Tibet is the area where have numerous salt lake,because the sources of water have multiple chemical type,resulting in Tibet salt     

基于Budyko假设和分形理论的水沙变化归因识别——以北洛河流域为例

全球气候变化及人类活动深刻影响了区域水文过程,进行水沙变化归因识别对流域生态保护和高质量发展尤为重要。基于Budyko假设和分形理论,采用弹性系数法,对北洛河流域上（丘陵沟壑区）、中（土石山林—高塬沟壑区）、下游（渭北旱塬农区）3种不同地貌和植被类型区1959—2019年的水、沙通量变化进行归因分析。结果表明,北洛河上、中、下游径流量均显著减少,由20世纪60年代的35 mm、32 mm、34 mm,减少到21世纪10年代的19 mm、24 mm、6 mm,60 a减少率分别为0.3 mm a^-1、0.2 mm a^-1、0.4 mm a^-1。上游输沙量极显著减少,中游降低趋势不显著,下游显著减少,由20世纪60年代的99×10⁶ t、8×10⁶ t、3×10⁶ t,减少到21世纪10年代的10×10⁶ t、3×10⁶ t、0.3×10⁶ t,60 a减少率分别为1.5×10⁶ t a^-1、0.04×10⁶ t a^-1、0.1×10⁶ t a^-1。20世纪70年代以来,上游径流变化逐渐受人类活动影响,且影响程度逐渐增强,21世纪10年代人类活动贡献率达66.3%;气候变化是中游径流变化的主控因子,21世纪10年代降雨和潜在蒸散发的贡献率分别为77.0%和20.2%;下游径流减少主要为人类活动影响,21世纪10年代其贡献率为64.3%。对比20世纪60年代流域输沙量变化始终受人类活动主导,21世纪10年代人类活动对上、中、下游输沙量减少的贡献率分别为80.7%、59.2%和92.7%。上游人类活动对输沙量减少的贡献中,退耕还林等沟坡措施和沟道工程措施分别为39.0%、42.7%,中、下游人类活动贡献的估算结果反映出高植被覆盖区和农区汲水灌溉对区域水、沙的影响特征。