回流天气系统层状云的非均匀性

利用一次回流天气过程的PMS资料,从微物理结构上对回流天气系统层状云的不均匀性进行了分析,发现飞机在进入较强降水云带时,云物理量(液水含量、云滴浓度、云滴平均直径,温度)等会产生剧烈变化,表现为液水含量跃增、云滴浓度快速增大、云滴谱谱宽拓宽、温度下降等,在同一较强云带中,温度变化不大并且比周围低,较强降水云带冰晶含量丰富,自然催化较好。     

干冷空气活动对2008年梅雨降水的作用

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了2008年梅汛期暴雨过程中干冷空气侵入对暴雨发生、发展和维持的作用.结果表明:梅雨期中高纬度环流的演变和调整与暴雨过程密切相关,亚洲北部阻塞高压(高压脊)的建立和维持,使得500hPa高度上西风锋区南压,导致干冷空气南下,极涡活动的异常偏东和加强有助于冷空气向江淮流域输送,有利于江淮流域暴雨的发展.在江淮流域梅雨期间,干冷空气的活跃与暴雨过程相对应.干冷空气来源于中高纬度和中高层.干冷空气侵入有利于对流层中高层干层的形成和维持.而且,干冷空气侵入是梅雨湿度锋形成和维持的一个重要动力和热力原因.在此研究基础上,归纳出中期预报着眼点,供实际业务预报参考使用.     

ICRF与Gaia-CRF参考架特性分析

天体测量学是天文学中最古老的分支之一, 它是天文学的基础, 对天体物理学和大地测量学的许多方面至关重要.天体测量学的核心任务之一就是建立一个高精度天文参考系, 以便利用这样的惯性参照系来描述天体的位置和运动、研究银河系的运动学特征及对同一天体在不同波段的对应体进行位置认证和比较.当前的天文参考系是参照银河系外天体(主要是活动星系核)的位置来定义的, 称为国际天球参考系(ICRS).在实测上, 与之相对应的基本星表为国际天球参考架(ICRF), 它由甚长基线干涉测量(VLBI)技术在S/X、K和X/Ka波段的观测资料解算而得, 位置精度达到数十微角秒($\mathrm{\mu as}$)水平.另一方面, Gaia卫星的观测也将在光学波段建立类似精度的光学参考架(Gaia-CRF).ICRF与Gaia-CRF的连接成为天体测量领域需要解决的重大问题之一, 这要求对ICRF与Gaia-CRF参考架特性进行细致深入的分析. 首先, 分析了ICRF的整体特性.VLBI星表的内部符合精度估计值在$\mathrm{10\mu as}$和$\mathrm{40\mu as}$之间, 依赖于射电源的观测次数.这一结果一方面验证了ICRF3星表给出的位置噪声水平, 也说明了VLBI技术在天体测量方面的潜力.利用Gaia的河外源位置为参考, 分析了历代ICRF星表的外部符合精度, 指出ICRF3 X/Ka波段参考架存在约$\mathrm{200\mu as}$的系统误差.最后, 发明了一种评估射电源全天分布均匀性的量化指标并改进了ICRF定义源筛选策略, 结果表明相较于ICRF2而言, 这一方法能将ICRF轴指向稳定性提高2至3倍.这些工作很好地解释并补充了国际上ICRF3工作组的相关结果. 其次, 研究Gaia-CRF的参考架性质.使用了相对于依巴谷参考架的全局旋转和结合银河系动力学分析两种方法来评估Gaia-CRF1的惯性水平, 指出Gaia-CRF1可能存在约$\mathrm{0.3mas\cdot yr^{-1}}$的剩余旋转.对于Gaia-CRF2, 研究了其系统精度与河外源样本极限星等的依赖关系, 发现Gaia-CRF2的整体精度几乎不受星等差的影响.这一结果可作为未来ICRF与Gaia-CRF连接源选择的参考. 活动星系核的光学-射电位置差是影响参考架连接精度的重要因素之一.本文首次将光学-射电位置差研究延伸到K和Ka波段, 并研究其与河外源性质参数的相关性, 发现: 光学-射电位置差与星等的相关性是由于星等差而非真实的物理原因造成的, 因此在前人工作中被忽略的暗源也有可能作为ICRF与Gaia-CRF连接源.此外, 本文提出了一种新的参考架连接方法, 即在Gaia-CRF2框架下重新处理VLBI的历史观测资料.先期结果发现使用Gaia-CRF2来替代ICRF3尚不足以显著提高VLBI产品的精度, 但未来在Gaia-CRF参考架精度进一步提高后, 此方法仍值得进一步检验. 本文的研究, 一方面指出了ICRF与Gaia-CRF参考架中可能存在的种种问题, 另一方面也为将来光学与射电参考架连接提供了第一手的参考资料.     

三维地理信息系统面向对象数据结构

针对三维空间实体描述与显示的复杂性,总结了几种具有代表性的３Ｄ＝ＧＩＳ数据结构,提出了以表为基本单元的面向对象数据结构,指出面向对象方法在３Ｄ－ＧＩＳ软件开发与应用中的意义。     

岩溶煤矿床防护层的防护效应评价——以邯郸王凤煤矿为例

煤矿突水现象实际上是防护层煤层底板隔水层水岩相互作用的结果。研究防护层对底板突水的抑制作用,是带水压采煤防止突水及解放水患煤层,特别是解放深部水患煤层的主要研究内容之一。在保护水资源、维护生态平衡的呼声越来越高的今天,大规模疏降煤矿岩溶地下水已经变得越来越不可取。本文在搜集大量实际资料和矿井现场试验、室内模拟试验的基础上,探讨了隔水层的防突机制;扬弃了奥灰底板突水的“下三带”的定性描述,提出了底板突水的新机理;总结出了王凤煤矿安全开采煤层判别式,并指出在无断裂构造的条件下,开采-50水平以上的下三层煤,突水可能性不大。      

基于物理模型试验的多层滑带滑坡变形演化特征

滑坡变形演化特征一直是滑坡灾害预测与防治领域急需解决的关键问题,但对于多层滑带滑坡的变形演化特征却少有研究.以物理模型试验为手段建立了三层滑带滑坡物理试验模型,完成了多层滑带滑坡变形演化全过程的模拟.基于PPIV技术获取坡表位移数据,通过柔性测斜仪监测滑坡深部位移,同时布设土压力盒获取滑坡内部土压力的变化情况,实现了多...     

Relative model score: a scoring rule for evaluating ensemble simulations with application to microbial soil respiration modeling

This paper defines a new scoring rule, namely relative model score (RMS), for evaluating ensemble simulations of environmental models. RMS implicitly incorporates the measures of ensemble mean accuracy, prediction interval precision, and prediction interval reliability for evaluating the overall model predictive performance. RMS is numerically evaluated from the probability density functions of ensemble simulations given by individual models or several models via model averaging. We demonstrate the advantages of using RMS through an example of soil respiration modeling. The example considers two alternative models with different fidelity, and for each model Bayesian inverse modeling is conducted using two different likelihood functions. This gives four single-model ensembles of model simulations. For each likelihood function, Bayesian model averaging is applied to the ensemble simulations of the two models, resulting in two multi-model prediction ensembles. Predictive performance for these ensembles is evaluated using various scoring rules. Results show that RMS outperforms the commonly used scoring rules of log-score, pseudo Bayes factor based on Bayesian model evidence (BME), and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). RMS avoids the problem of rounding error specific to log-score. Being applicable to any likelihood functions, RMS has broader applicability than BME that is only applicable to the same likelihood function of multiple models. By directly considering the relative score of candidate models at each cross-validation datum, RMS results in more plausible model ranking than CRPS. Therefore, RMS is considered as a robust scoring rule for evaluating predictive performance of single-model and multi-model prediction ensembles.     

Which way do you lean? Using slope aspect variations to understand Critical Zone processes and feedbacks

Soil‐mantled pole‐facing hillslopes on Earth tend to be steeper, wetter, and have more vegetation cover compared with adjacent equator‐facing hillslopes. These and other slope aspect controls are often the consequence of feedbacks among hydrologic, ecologic, pedogenic, and geomorphic processes triggered by spatial variations in mean annual insolation. In this paper we review the state of knowledge on slope aspect controls of Critical Zone (CZ) processes using the latitudinal and elevational dependence of topographic asymmetry as a motivating observation. At relatively low latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to be steeper. At higher latitudes and elevations this pattern reverses. We reproduce this pattern using an empirical model based on parsimonious functions of latitude, an aridity index, mean‐annual temperature, and slope gradient. Using this empirical model and the literature as guides, we present a conceptual model for the slope‐aspect‐driven CZ feedbacks that generate asymmetry in water‐limited and temperature‐limited end‐member cases. In this conceptual model the dominant factor driving slope aspect differences at relatively low latitudes and elevations is the difference in mean‐annual soil moisture. The dominant factor at higher latitudes and elevations is temperature limitation on vegetation growth. In water‐limited cases, we propose that higher mean‐annual soil moisture on pole‐facing hillslopes drives higher soil production rates, higher water storage potential, more vegetation cover, faster dust deposition, and lower erosional efficiency in a positive feedback. At higher latitudes and elevations, pole‐facing hillslopes tend to have less vegetation cover, greater erosional efficiency, and gentler slopes, thus reversing the pattern of asymmetry found at lower latitudes and elevations. Our conceptual model emphasizes the linkages among short‐ and long‐timescale processes and across CZ sub‐disciplines; it also points to opportunities to further understand how CZ processes interact. We also demonstrate the importance of paleoclimatic conditions and non‐climatic factors in influencing slope aspect variations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preliminary study on community structures of meiofauna in the middle and eastern Chukchi Sea

Sediment core samples were collected from 17 stations in the middle and eastern Chukchi Sea during the sixth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition(CHINARE-Arctic) in summer 2014.The samples were analyzed for composition,abundance,biomass,vertical distribution,size spectra,and ecological indexes of meiofauna.A total of 14 meiofauna taxa were detected,and the free-living marine nematodes comprised the most dominant taxon,accounting for 97.21% of the average abundance.The abundance and biomass of meiofauna were within ranges of(218.12±85.83)-(7 239.38±1 557.15) ind./(10 cm~2) and(130.28±52.17)-(3 309.56±1 751.80) μg/(10 cm~2),with average values of(2 391.90±1 966.19) ind./(10 cm~2) and(1 549.73±2 042.85) μg/(10 cm~2)(according to dry weight)respectively.Furthermore,91.26% of the individuals were distributed in the top layer of 0-5 cm of surface sediment,and 90.84% had sizes of 32-250 μm.Group diversity index of meiofauna in the survey area was low,and the variation of abundance was the main difference in meiofauna communities among all stations.Abundance and biomass of meiofauna were not significantly correlated with environmental factors except concentration of nutrient Si in bottom seawater.Abundance of meiofauna in shallow water of marginal seas in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean is likely at a same level and higher than that in most of China sea areas,suggesting that the shallow water of the summer Chukchi Sea is a continental shelf area with rich resources of meiofauna.The Chukchi Sea is important for studying the ecosystem of the Arctic Ocean and environmental responses.However,studies on meiofauna in the Chukchi Sea are still not enough,and in the future,natural and human disturbances may increase due to global warming,the Arctic channel opening,and other factors.Thus,more studies on meiofauna should be required,in order to know more about how the Arctic benthic community would alter.