Improving the Realism of Modeling Agronomic Adaptation to Climate Change: Simulating Technological Substitution

The purpose of the paper is to propose and test a new approach to simulating farmers' agronomic adaptation to climate change based on the pattern of adoption of technological innovation/substitution over time widely described as a S-shaped (or logistic) curve, i.e., slow growth at the beginning followed by accelerating and then decelerating growth, ultimately leading to saturation. The approach we developed is tested using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model applied to corn production systems in the southeastern U.S. using a high-resolution climate change scenario. Corn is the most extensively grown crop in the southeastern U.S. The RegCM limited area model nested within the CSIRO general circulation model generated the scenario. We compare corn yield outcomes using this new form of adaptation (logistic) with climatically optimized (clairvoyant) adaptation. The results show logistic adaptation to be less effective than clairvoyant adaptation in ameliorating climate change impacts on yields, although the differences between the two sets of yields are statistically significant in one case only. These results are limited by the reliance on a single scenario of climate change. We conclude that the logistic technique should be tested widely across climate change scenarios, crop species, and geographic areas before a full evaluation of its effect on outcomes is possible.     

1999～2002年地震预报研究进展

回顾了中国在1999~2002年开展地震预测、预报研究的进展. 重点回顾了在此期间利用地震学、形变、电磁、流体和综合5类学科方法开展中短期地震预报研究的成果，以及这些成果在地震预报实践中的探索性应用.      

防雷系统日常维护浅析

从防雷系统日常维护以及检测实际工作中遇到的几个代表性问题来加以论述，介绍了欧洲国家解决这些问题的方法，以供防雷工作者参考。     

黑河甘肃段浮游植物群落结构演变趋势

为探究西北干旱区内陆河流域水生态系统时空演变规律,2017年7月对黑河甘肃段进行了浮游植物的采样调查,并收集1981、1997、2008年浮游植物夏季调查数据,分析黑河上中下游浮游植物物种、生物多样性和优势种等群落结构的演变特征,同时提出生物活动力指标以表征河流生物的活动能力和活跃程度。结果表明：在空间分布上,黑河中游在各年份都具有最为丰富稳定的浮游植物群落结构,物种数（61属）、生物多样性指数（2.87）和生物活动力指数（0.194万cells·hm^-2）均高于上下游。在时间尺度上,上游浮游植物群落变得持续丰富;中游从1981年持续衰落到2008年后出现反转并快速恢复到2017年更为丰富和活跃的水平;下游则呈现出持续衰落的态势。以1981年为基准,黑河中游水域面积到2010年减小5.2%,浮游植物生物活动力降低了16.5%,到2017年水域面积增加1.2%,浮游植物生物活动力增加了4.3%。黑河浮游植物对流域天然湿地及水域的变化具有强烈的敏感性和依赖性,浮游植物演变特征与湿地水域面积变化趋势一致。     

昆仑山北麓阿羌黄土剖面AQS3层段记录的末次间冰阶千年尺度的气候波动

通过对昆仑山北麓阿羌黄土剖面AQS3层段的年代测试、粒度参数(Mz和σ)以及主要氧化物(SiO2,Al2O3,TOFE(Fe2O3 FeO)和(Al2O3 TOFE)/SiO2比值)分析,并结合区域相关地层反映的古环境和腹足类化石指示的古生态,认为AQS3记录了末次间冰阶19个旋回的干冷与暖湿的气候波动。其中,15个具有千年尺度旋回的各个温暖期能够较好地与GRIP冰芯氧同位素曲线中的D-O事件在时代和气候性质上进行一一对比。可能是由于地处毗邻冰川山麓、加之海拔较高,故该层段粒度与主要氧化物显示的气候变动的幅度并不大,然而却相当敏感。不仅于此,这种千年尺度的温暖气候变化在昆仑山北麓及其近邻区域也有明显的表现。例如,在昆仑山北麓普鲁地层剖面中,指示暖干气候作用下形成的含石膏等盐类的砂土砾石层的TL年龄为距今31000年、45500～41600年、45900年和54500年,可以依次与GRIPδ18O中的间冰段D/O6,D/O12,D/O13和D/O15进行对比;在阿尔金山北麓,类似的并具有荒漠漆的砂土砾石层的TL年龄为37200aB.P.和59700aB.P.,分别相当于D/O9和D/O17间冰段;在塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地的高阶地(海拔1310m),可能代表了剧烈升温的气候背景下,环塔里木盆地四周高山冰雪大量消融导致的塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地的"大湖期",其日历年为33197aB.P.,与GISP2冰芯氧同位素曲线在33000aB.P.的暖阶段相当。发生在昆仑山北麓及毗邻区域AQS3时期若干温暖阶段的地层学证据以及其在时间上能够与GRIP和GISP2冰芯氧同位素曲线相关暖峰的耦合,表明由阿羌剖面末次间冰阶粒度和主氧化物峰谷变化反映出来的多次冷暖波动,其根本原因还是受到北半球D/O振荡的强烈影响。     

Sedimentation Geochemistry and Environmental Changes during the Late Pleistocene of Paleolake Qarhan in the Qaidam Basin

On the basis of the analyses of TOC, CaCO3, δ13Corg, δ18O, and δ13C of the shell bar section in the Qaidam basin, and compared with grain size data, the environmental change history of the high water level of paleolake Qarhan was reconstructed and it could be divided into five stages. From 39.7 to 35.8 kaBP was the development period of high paleolake level. From 35.8 to 33.6 kaBP and 33.6 to 27.2 kaBP, TOC and CaCO3 contents and δ18O values were high, whereas, δ13Corg values and median size content were low, reflecting a warm-humid climate and high lake level. During 27.2-22.3 kaBP and 22.3-17.5 kaBP, both temperature and the lake level were lower than those in the previous stages, but the climate was still warmer and more humid than that of today. The lake level decreased between 32.4 and 32.2 kaBP, 30.4 and 29.8 kaBP, and 28.4 and 27.2 kaBP. Generally, the climate was warm and humid in Qaidam basin and the high lake level sustained between 39.7 and 17.5 kaBP. The lake retreated abruptly at 17.5 kaBP, with a very strong increase in evaporation, which resulted in salt formation and the extinction of Corbicula.     

Source of ore-forming material for the Huangtuliang gold deposit,Hebei Province and ore prospecting in the deep periphery

The Huangtuliang gold deposit is characterized by its wide and large ore belt, stable extension and closely spaced orebodies. Unfortunately, no orebody was found by deep drilling. As a result, ore prospecting in this region was once put into dilemma. Detailed analysis of ore-forming and ore-controlling structures in the mining district by the authors has revealed that the ore-forming and ore-controlling structure in this mining district is a steeply dipping （85°-110°/∠70°-85° N-NNE）, spade-shaped ductile shear zone, and the ore-controlling structures are a series of nearly erected second-ordered faults which are developed in the upper part of the ductile shear zone, inter-secting with the ductile shear zone. Deep cutting of the ductile shear zone made it possible the ascending of ore fluids from the mantle plume at depth and these ore fluids would migrate upwards along the ductile shear zone under certain temperature and pressure conditions. Along their ascending path, the ore fluids would extract ore-forming elements from the country rocks and the extracted ore-forming elements would be deposited as ores in the hang- ing-wall second-ordered faults. The reason why no orebody was found in early prospecting at depth is that north- ward-dipping drilling in the southern part of the shear zone extended so deeply as to be beneath the shear zone. Only shallow-level orebodies could be found by southward-dipping drilling practice in the northern part of the shear zone. The location where deep-seated orebodies occurred shifted northwards and the orebodies occurred at greater depth. Therefore, it is natural that no orebody could be found when drill core passed through the shear zone. After the ore-forming and ore-controlling structures were well understood, the focus of ore prospecting was placed on the deep-level, northward-penetrating veins. In this way a number of new blind orebodies of great thickness have been found. On the basis of research development in the mining district, a prospecting plan has been made     

半干旱区不同类型沙丘风沙流结构特征

采用两种阶梯式集沙仪和小型气象站于2017年4—5月对科尔沁沙地流动沙丘、半固定沙丘和固定沙丘0~75 cm气流层风沙流的总输沙量、输沙率、粒径组成分布和风蚀特征值进行了观测。结果表明：（1）随着高度增加,总输沙量下降,随着风速增加,总输沙量上升;92.20%~95.60%的输沙量发生在0~21 cm高度。（2）总输沙率（Q）流动沙丘>半固定沙丘>固定沙丘,将Q与地上200 cm风速进行函数拟合,流动沙丘幂函数最佳（R²=0.986）,半固定（R²=0.990）和固定沙丘（R²=0.956）指数函数最佳。（3）将各高度的输沙率与地上200 cm风速进行函数拟合,流动沙丘（R²≥0.905）和半固定沙丘（R²≥0.968）拟合度幂函数好于指数函数,固定沙丘（R²≥0.923）指数函数优于幂函数。（4）在一定高度下,3类沙丘输沙率均随着风速的增加而增加;在一定风速下,输沙率随着高度的增加而逐渐递减。（5）3类沙丘的特征值随着风速的增加呈现出逐渐递增的趋势;流动沙丘以λ>1为主,表现出持续侵蚀输送沙粒的能力;半固定沙丘当风速>9.0 m·s^-1时逐渐出现侵蚀状态;固定沙丘以λ<1为主,近地表风沙以堆积状态为主。（6）3类沙丘主要由粒径为0.1~0.25 mm的细沙构成,在0~30 cm高度,细沙占输沙量的50.09%~85.11%,在30~75 cm高度,细沙占输沙量的43.53%~75.53%。     

巴丹吉林沙漠高大沙山近地层温湿廓线与能量交换特征

利用兰州大学冰川与沙漠研究中心科学观测实验站2015—2016年获得的高大沙山微气象数据,分析了巴丹吉林沙漠温湿廓线结构、土壤分层温度、辐射通量等特征,利用组合法和一维热传导方程分别计算了湍流通量及土壤热通量。结果表明：（1）近地层大气自下而上呈现近似等温或逆温分布,冬季逆温层厚度大于夏季。（2）初次观测到逆湿现象,比湿夏季最大,冬季最小,秋季和春季次之,全年平均约为4.2 g·kg^-1,高于塔克拉玛干沙漠。（3）土壤热通量在2月底至5月初振幅较大;感热通量具有显著的平均日变化特征,潜热通量平均日变化平稳,以0 W·m^-2为中心上下波动。能量交换以感热通量为主,陆-气温度差异是沙山感热通量变化的主要影响和控制因子。     

太湖蓝藻水华暴发的氮磷控制阈值分析

藻类生长与营养盐浓度存在藻类几何级数增长的营养盐浓度变化的下限阈值和藻类生长不受氮磷浓度增加影响的上限阈值,但由于蓝藻水华的形成受多种因素的综合影响,不同湖泊、不同区域及不同时段的氮磷浓度对蓝藻水华的影响差别较大,使得蓝藻生长的氮磷控制阈值难以确定.针对控制蓝藻水华暴发的氮磷阈值的研究虽然有所开展,但多集中在实验室研究阶段或对经验值的判断,虽然也有基于野外实测数据的研究,但也限制于某一特定区域,而基于野外长序列实测数据并且覆盖整个湖泊的氮磷阈值研究则是空白.太湖作为具有较高营养背景的富营养化浅水湖泊,蓝藻水华的发生受氮磷影响较大.对太湖总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)和叶绿素a(Chl.a)浓度的时空变化分析发现,太湖西北湖区的TP、TN与Chl.a浓度明显较高,并且TP、TN与Chl.a均呈显著性正相关.为探究太湖蓝藻水华暴发的TP和TN控制阈值,以轻富营养化等级下的Chl.a分级标准(10,26］作为表征水华暴发的条件,采用郑丙辉等的频率分布法,确定了太湖蓝藻水华暴发的TP和TN控制阈值分别为0.05~0.06和1.71~1.72 mg/L;通过空间验证,太湖藻型区TP和TN浓度远高于同级营养水平下全湖区TP和TN控制阈值,表明藻型区高氮磷水平为蓝藻水华发生提供充足营养盐条件,即使氮磷全湖平均浓度控制在蓝藻水华暴发的氮磷阈值水平之下,但在气象水文等因素适宜条件下,藻型区水华发生风险仍然较高;并且在高氮磷背景下,即便在水华发生风险低的季节,水华发生风险仍然较大.近十几年来,虽然太湖经历了大规模的高强度治理,但由于环太湖流域的湖西区入湖负荷占比大,导致太湖藻型区氮磷浓度仍处于高位运行状态,为蓝藻水华的暴发提供了充足的营养盐基础,因此,湖西区的控源减排仍然是太湖富营养化及蓝藻水华防控的重点.