Phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon in the 20th century

This paper focuses on the relationship between the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the twentieth century. The first transition occurred in the 1940s, with an enhanced SST in the North Pacific and reduced SST in the tropical eastern Pacific and South Indian Ocean. In agreement with these SST changes, a higher SLP was found in most parts of the Pacific, while a lower SLP was found in the North Pacific and most parts of the Indian Ocean. In this case, the EASM was largely enhanced with a southerly anomaly in the lower troposphere along the east coast of China. Correspondingly, there was less rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and more rainfall in northern and southern China. An opposite change was found when the PDO reversed its phase in the late 1970s. In the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific, however, the SST was enhanced in both the 1940s and 1970s. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tended to extend westward with a larger magnitude in the 1970s. The major features were reasonably reproduced by an atmospheric general circulation model (IAP AGCM4.0) prescribed with observed SST and sea ice. On the other hand, the westward extension of the WPSH was exaggerated in the 1970s, while it was underestimated in the 1940s. Besides, the spatial pattern of the simulated summer rainfall in eastern China tended to shift southward compared with the observation.     

黔西南州区域自动站气象资料绘图系统的研制

随着气象服务的不断推进,用户对气象服务产品的要求越来越高,提高气象服务产品的质量对于基层气象台站来说显得至关重要。目前,区域气象站的建设已覆盖到各乡镇,将这些区域气象站资料用直观的色斑图来显示,可有效提高气象服务质量和服务水平。系统综合使用VB、Fortran、Gr ADS等技术,实现对区域自动站气象资料的查询、处理与绘图等功能,并可分县制作绘图边界和色斑图,为决策气象服务提供精美素材。     

基于作物模型的河南省旱稻干旱风险评估

采用作物模型与数理统计相结合的方法,利用长期历史气象资料,以作物模型和地理信息系统技术为工具,系统分析了河南地区旱稻生育期水分盈亏情况。以模型模拟的雨养条件下实际蒸散量相对于潜在条件下的蒸散量(即需水量)的亏缺率,即水分亏缺指数,以雨养条件下产量相对于潜在产量的损失率(即灾损指数)作为产量灾损强度评价指标,从受旱程度和产量损失两个角度构建干旱风险评估模型,进行干旱风险评估。结果表明:河南省旱稻生育期集中在6—9月,水分亏缺最多的阶段为出苗—穗分化阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.50~0.60,其次是开花—成熟阶段和穗分化—开花阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.11~0.43;全生育期水分亏缺指数在0.36~0.50。出苗—穗分化阶段干旱发生的风险最大,其次是开花—成熟阶段,穗分化—开花阶段的最小。河南旱稻生育期干旱风险呈现为由东南向西北逐渐升高的分布,其中三门峡、济源西部一带风险最高,洛阳南部和南阳西北部一带最低,黄河以北大部地区和豫东、豫南地区风险居中。     

Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis based on principal component analysis and self-organizing map: a case study in Southwest China

A method was developed to analyze the susceptibilities of 541 regional basins affected by debris flows at the Wudongde Dam site in southwest China. Determining susceptibility requires information on source material quantity and occurrence frequency. However, the large number of debris flows can hinder the individual field investigation in a each small basin. Factors that may trigger debris flows can be identified using remotely sensed interpretation information. Susceptibility analysis can then be conducted based on these factors. In this study, SPOT5 satellite imagery, digital elevation models (DEM), a lithology distribution map, and rainfall monitoring data were used to identify 12 debris flow trigger factors: basin relief ratio, slope gradient in the initiation zone, drainage density, downslope curvature of the main channel, vegetation coverage, main channel aspect, topographic wetness index, Melton’s ruggedness number, lithology, annual rainfall, form factor, and cross-slope curvature of the transportation zone. Principal component analysis was used to obtain the eight principal components of these factors that contribute to susceptibility results. Then, a self-organizing map method was adopted to analyze the principal components, which resulted in a debris flow susceptibility classification. Field validation of 26 debris flow basins was used to evaluate the errors of the susceptibility classification, as well as assess the causes of such errors. The study found that principle component analysis and self-organizing map methodologies are good predictors of basin susceptibility to debris flows.     

大凌河河口地区晚更新世晚期以来的沉积环境演化

对大凌河河口地区ZK3钻孔(孔深36.7 m)岩心开展粒度分析、AMS14C年代测定、有孔虫鉴定分析等综合研究,同时结合该地区5口工程钻孔的岩心以及部分测年资料,初步建立了大凌河河口地区晚更新世晚期以来典型的地层序列格架和时空对比框架,揭示该地区晚更新世晚期以来河道-湖沼-滨海/河口湾-浅海-三角洲的沉积演化过程。研究结果表明:大凌河河口地区在8 500 cal a BP前后开始接受海相沉积,并约在4 000 cal a BP之后进入三角洲沉积阶段;晚更新世晚期以来的海平面变化是大凌河河口沉积演化和沉积环境演变的主要控制因素;大凌河对现代辽河三角洲的形成和演化过程可能有较重要的影响。     

2014年春季季风间期东印度洋赤道及其邻近海域硅藻群落

2014年4月10日至5月13日在东印度洋赤道区及其邻近海域(10.08°N-6.00°S,80.00°~96.10°E)进行硅藻物种组成和群落结构的调查。分析了45个网采样品,共鉴定出浮游硅藻34属113种(包括变种、变形及未定名种),大部分物种为热带外洋性种以及暖海外洋性种,与该海区的热带及亚热带的环境特征一致。优势种为佛氏梯形藻(Climacodium frauenfeldianum)、地中海细柱藻(Leptocylindrus mediterraneus)、密聚角毛藻(Chaetoceros coarctatus)、美丽漂流藻(Planktoniella foromsa)、大西洋角毛藻那不勒斯变种(Chaetoceros atlanticus var. neapolitanus)、距端假管藻(Pseudosolenia calcar-avis,即距端根管藻Rhizosolenia calcaravis)、圆柱几内亚藻(Guinardia cylindrus)、达蒂角毛藻(Chaetoceros dadayi)、伏氏海线藻(Thalassionema frauenfeldii)、离心列海链藻(Thalassiosira excentrica)、瘤面角毛藻(Chaetoceros bacteriastroides)以及笔尖根管藻粗径变种(Rhizosolenia styliformis var. latissima)等。硅藻的平均细胞丰度为1.855×103个/m3,其平面分布不均匀,赤道断面细胞丰度较低,高值区出现在海区北部。聚类分析发现有7种生态类群,这些硅藻的种类和丰度平面分布与上层水体(200 m以浅)温度、盐度及营养盐的水柱平均值有较好的对应关系。     

夏季南海北部微型浮游动物群落

根据2014年8月至9月于珠江口至南海中部断面(18°00'~22°00'N,114°00'~116°00'E)的南海北部海域进行采样调查,并进行了微型浮游动物群落分析。共发现微型浮游动物142种,隶属于2门44属,其中砂壳纤毛虫28属78种,占所有发现物种数的54.93%;寡毛类纤毛虫14属59种,占所有发现物种数的41.55%。优势类群为:拟卡金斯急游虫(Strombidium paracalkinsi)、具沟急游虫(Strombidium sulcatum)、维尔伯特急游虫(Strombidium wilberti)和无节幼体(nauplii)。调查区微型浮游动物的丰度介于11.43~959.35 ind/L之间,平均值为264.99 ind/L。微型浮游动物垂直分布总体特点是密集区位于50 m水层,50 m水层之下丰度逐渐减少。表层微型浮游动物丰度高值区位于J5-I1站位之间。断面的香农-威纳指数范围在0.92~4.18之间,平均值为2.77;均匀度指数在0.63~1之间,平均值为0.87。应用典范对应分析(CCA)发现温度和盐度是影响微型浮游动物群落的重要因素。通过对连续追踪站位的调查发现,上层水体微型浮游动物群落丰度随着时间而发生一定的变化,下层水体相对较平缓。微型浮游动物昼夜的垂直丰度变化与叶绿素浓度昼夜变化大致相符。