气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

江西省龟峰丹霞地貌景观类型与成因分析

龟峰丹霞地貌区位于信江盆地南缘,地处扬子板块与华夏板块的结合带.景区内丹霞地貌景观类型齐全,成景层位为上白垩统龟峰群的河口组和塘边组.河口组以紫红、砖红色砾岩、砂岩为主,塘边组以紫红色砂岩、粉砂岩、泥岩为主.本文介绍了区内丹霞地貌类型,并结合对该区地质特征研究,提出岩性差异、地层产状、构造发育和水流影响为龟峰丹霞地貌形成的主要因素.     

Dynamics of the eco-environmental quality in response to land use changes in rapidly urbanizing areas: A case study of Wuhan,China from 2000 to 2018

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The dramatic land use changes that occur in rapidly urbanized areas are important inducement to changes in the eco-environmental quality. Investigating urban land...     

Ab initio prediction of 29Si-NMR chemical shifts

The ability of several ab initio models to predict experimental ²⁹Si-NMR chemical shift is examined. The shielding values of trimethylsilyl chloride (A), t-butyldimethylsilyl chloride (B) and allytrimethylsilane (C) are calculated by GIAO, CSGT and IGAIM methods, using HF/6–31G^*, B3LYP/6-31G^*, HF/6–311+G^**, B3LYP/6–311+G^** and MPW1PW91/6–311+G^** models respectively. The ²⁹Si chemical shifts calculated by GIAO method using HF/6–311+G^** model are highly in agreement with those obtained experimentally. All of the models above reproduce the trends of chemical shifts in all cases studied, suggesting that the models are of practical value.     

灵台-阿木去乎剖面地壳速度结构

在Ⅰ测线观测资料的基础上,本文结合测区特点给出了高程校正及沉积层校正方法,利用反射波与莫霍面折射波运动学特性进行一维、二维地壳结构的正、反演计算,获得了自甘肃夏河至灵台460公里范围内的分层地壳结构,认为西部地壳厚度约51公里,东部仅为44公里,已属鄂尔多斯地台区结构,与地槽区的分界线大致对应地表陇县固关镇。武山与张家川之间在15-20公里深处存在低速层。结合地震波的动力学特性,可判定本测线通过的超壳断层有鄂尔多斯西缘-六盘山断裂、西秦岭北缘断裂和武山南北向断裂。     

使用DOS批处理文件备份自动气象站数据

从备份自动站数据文件的实际需要出发,通过实例由浅及深地介绍了用DOS批处理文件多目的地、多方式备份自动站数据的方法,包括本机备份、备份到局域网、备份到网络服务器以及自动备份等。     

Correlation between molecular absorption spectral slope ratios and fluorescence humification indices in characterizing CDOM

Ultraviolet–visible absorption spectral slope ratios S_R (slope in 275–295 nm divided by slope in 350–400 nm) and humification index (HIX, integrated fluorescence emission in 435–480 nm divided by that in 435–480 and 300–345 nm) were compared when characterizing chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in three humic acids and 44 whole water samples. HIX increased with increasing pH for humic acids, while their S_R showed much more complicated dependencies on pH. There was a negative correlation between S_R and HIX. S_R increased in the order terrestrial coal/peat < terrestrial soil/river < seawater, while HIX increased in the order seawater < terrestrial soil/river < terrestrial coal/peat. The comparative study in this work indicates that terrestrially derived CDOM has higher HIX and lower S_R than marine CDOM. Investigators may potentially use these two indices to compare qualitatively the character of CDOM in different sources (e.g., terrestrial vs. marine).     

青藏高原晚始新世干旱化事件：改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素的记录

改则盆地位于青藏高原腹地,盆地内沉积物记录了高原古环境变化的重要信息。本文对改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素进行研究,结果显示改则盆地中-晚始新世的演化分为两个阶段:1中始新世湿润气候下开放湖盆阶段:虽然碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值在43层处向正值偏移,但整体~(18)O和~(13)C强烈亏损,并且该时期碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C变化相关系数为R~2=0.082。表明该阶段的研究区虽然经历过短期蒸发作用增强或补给水减少,但整体是气候湿润条件下补给水丰富的开放型湖盆。2晚始新世干旱气候下封闭湖盆阶段:经过中新世晚期(63层)气候和湖泊水文状态的过渡,晚始新世~(18)O和~(13)C同位素富集,δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C值变化相关系数为R~2=0.7762。表明该阶段气候干旱,蒸发作用强烈,湖盆萎缩成为封闭湖盆。综合前人研究,认为青藏高原腹地及北缘、东北缘在晚始新世存在明显的区域性干旱化事件。对比分析青藏高原隆升、全球气候记录、全球海水Sr和大气CO_2记录,认为青藏高原腹地和北部的干旱化事件主要受青藏高原隆升的影响。