国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究

基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。     

Modeling and sensitivity analysis of navigation parameter errors for airborne synthetic aperture radar stereo geolocation

For the high-resolution airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) stereo geolocation application, the final geolocation accuracy is influenced by various error parameter sources. In this paper, an airborne SAR stereo geolocation parameter error model, involving the parameter errors derived from the navigation system on the flight platform, has been put forward. Moreover, a kind of near-direct method for modeling and sensitivity analysis of navigation parameter errors is also given. This method directly uses the ground reference to calculate the covariance matrix relationship between the parameter errors and the eventual geolocation errors for ground target points. In addition, utilizing true flight track parameters’ errors, this paper gave a verification of the method and a corresponding sensitivity analysis for airborne SAR stereo geolocation model and proved its efficiency.     

Development of Voronoi-based cellular automata -an integrated dynamic model for Geographical Information Systems

This paper presents a development of the extended Cellular Automata (CA), a Voronoi-based CA, to model dynamic interactions among spatial objects. Cellular automata are efficient models for representing dynamic spatial interactions. A complex global spatial pattern is generated by a set of simple local transition rules. However, its original definition for a two-dimensional array limits its application to raster spatial data only. This paper presents a newly developed Voronoi-based CA in which the CA is extended by using the Voronoi spatial model as its spatial framework. The Voronoi spatial model offers a ready solution to handling neighbourhood relations among spatial objects dynamically. By implementing this model, we have demonstrated that the Voronoi-based CA can model local interactions among spatial objects to generate complex global patterns. The Voronoi-based CA can further model interactions among point, line and polygon objects with irregular shapes and sizes in a dynamic system. Each of these objects possesses its own set of attributes, transition rules and neighbourhood relationships. The Voronoi-based CA models spatial interactions among real entities, such as shops, residential areas, industries and cities. Compared to the original CA, the Voronoi-based CA is a more natural and efficient representation of human knowledge over space.     

Evaluation of Upper Triassic T3x5 Source Rocks (Western Sichuan Depression, Sichuan Basin) and their Hydrocarbon Generation and Expulsion Characteristics: Implication for Tight-Sand Gas and Shale Gas Accumulation Potential Assessment

An unconventional, continuous petroleum system consists of an accumulation of hydrocarbons that is found in low-matrix-permeability rocks and contain large amounts of hydrocarbons. Tight-sand gas in the Jurassic and shale gas within the fifth member of Xujiahe Formation (T₃x⁵) are currently regarded as the most prolific emerging unconventional gas plays in China. The conventional and systematical evaluation of T₃x⁵ source rocks was carried out for the first time in the western Sichuan basin (WSD). Hydrocarbon generation and expulsion characteristics (including intensity, efficiency, and amount) of T₃x⁵ source rocks were investigated. Results show that T₃x⁵ source rocks are thick (generally >200 m), have high total organic content (TOC, ranging from 2.5 to 4.5 wt%), and dominated by III-type kerogen. These favorable characteristics result in a great hydrocarbon generating potential under the high thermal evolution history (R _o > 1.2%) of the area. An improved hydrocarbon generation potential methodology was applied to well data from the area to unravel the hydrocarbon generation and expulsion characteristics of T₃x⁵ source rocks in the WSD. Results indicate that the source rocks reached hydrocarbon expulsion threshold at 1.06% R _o and the comprehensive hydrocarbon expulsion efficiency was about 60%. The amount of generation and expulsion from T₃x⁵ source rocks was 3.14 × 10¹⁰ and 1.86 × 10¹⁰ t, respectively, with a residual amount of 1.28 × 10¹⁰ t within the source rocks. Continuous-type tight-sand gas was predicted to develop in the Jurassic in the Chengdu Sag of the WSD because of the good source-reservoir configuration (i.e., the hydrocarbon generation and expulsion center was located in Chengdu Sag), the Jurassic sandstone reservoirs were tight, and the gas expelled from the T₃x⁵ source rocks migrated for very short distances vertically and horizontally. The amount of gas accumulation in the Jurassic reservoirs derived from T₃x⁵ source rocks is up to 9.3 × 10⁸ t. The T₃x⁵ gas shale has good accumulation potential compared with several active US shale-gas plays. Volumetrically, the geological resource of shale gas is up to 1.05 × 10¹⁰ t. Small differences between the amounts calculated by volumetric method compared with that by hydrocarbon generation potential methodology may be due to other gas accumulations present within interbedded sands associated with the gas shales.     

Surface circulation patterns observed by drifters in the Yellow Sea in summer of 2001, 2002 and 2003

In summer of 2001, 2002 and 2003, ten, six and seventeen satellite-tracked surface drifters with drogues centered at 15 and 4 m were deployed, respectively, in the southern Yellow Sea (YS). 23 drifters of them transmitted useful data of at least 30 days. The wind-driven component of the drift was removed from the original drift velocity of drifters. The wind data used are from NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction), USA.Trajectories and drift velocities of the 23 drifters depicted the upper circulation structure in the southern YS. There exists an anti-cyclonic eddy with a mean speed and radius of 0.063 m/s and 50km in the central southern YS, whose center lingered within 35.3-36.0°N / 123.5-124.0°E. Showed by 6 drifters, a basin-scale elliptic cyclonic gyre with a mean speed of 0.114 m/s, long and short radius of 250 and 200 km surrounds the anti-cyclonic eddy. In the southwestern part of the southern YS has obvious frontal eddy activities within about 100 km with a mean speed about 0.076     

Numerical Study of Water and Suspended Matter Exchange Between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea

INTRODUCTIONTheYellowSeaandtheEastChinaSea (ECS)aremarginalseasofthenorthwestPacificandhaveexpansivecontinentalshelves .TheuniqueandstrikingfeaturesoftheYellowSeaandtheECSarethattheyhavestrongtidalcurrent;aresubjecttostrongmonsooninfluence ;andreceiveinflowfromthebiggestriverinChina ,theChangjiangRiver ;andthatthefamouswesternboundarycurrent,theKuroshio ,passesthroughtheECS ,withitsbranchesintrudingupwardintothecontinentalshelfareas.Generallyspeaking ,thewaterexchangecapacityofthe…     

Antioxidant enzyme activities in different genders and tissues of amphioxus Branchiostoma belcheri tsingtauense

Information regarding antioxidant enzymes in amphioxus remains lacking, and this study was carried out to examine the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and glutathione peroxidase (GPX) in different genders and tissues of amphioxus Branchiostoma belcheri tsingtauense. Results show that (1) CuZn-SOD, CAT and GPX activities in the whole amphioxus B. belcheri tsing- tauense were basically at the same levels in male and female amphioxus, whereas both T-SOD and Mn-SOD activities in male amphioxus were significantly higher than that in the female (P<0.05); (2) The testis had significantly higher T-SOD and CuZn-SOD activities than the ovary (P<0.05); (3) CuZn-SOD activity was undetectable in the guts of male and female amphioxus; (4) For both male and female am- phioxus, the activities of CAT and GPX in the gonads including testis and ovary were the lowest (P<0.05) among the tissues examined; (5) The gut and gill had the same level GPX activities while the gut had a higher CAT activity; (6) There was no clear difference in CAT and GPX activities in the corresponding tissues between male and female amphioxus. The study on SOD, CAT and GPX activities in different genders and tissues of the protochordate provides data for future comparison of amphioxus antioxidant enzymes with those of invertebrates and vertebrates.     

Cap setting and allowance allocation in China's emissions trading pilot programmes: special issues and innovative solutions

Seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilots have been established in China. They have introduced some unique methods to set emissions caps and allocate allowances, different from textbook models and their counterparts in the EU, California, and many other regions. This article provides a detailed introduction to the methods for cap setting and allowance allocation adopted by the pilots, and presents detailed comparisons of these methods. In terms of cap setting, the pilots adopt flexible caps that can be adjusted where necessary, which primarily depends on the outcomes of the bottom-up approach, namely aggregating the allowances allocated to participants. As for allowance allocation, the pilots not only adopt such methods as grandfathering and benchmarking, which are also widely applied in other existing schemes, but also some special methods that require ex post adjustment, such as those based on enterprises’ historical emissions intensity (including both physical quantity and added-value intensity) and current production/output. The factors influencing the design are further analysed, including the impacts of theory and experience from foreign systems, concerns about economic development, traditions regarding intensity targets and policy, constraints from data availability and preparation time, tight regulation of the electricity and heat generation sector, and concerns regarding price stability. The practice of pilots presents an improvement opportunity and a challenge for China to further balance the theoretical and practical requirements in ETS design in establishing its national system.

Policy relevance

China is piloting emissions trading in seven regions, as part of efforts to try to rely more on market-based instruments to achieve GHG emissions control targets. All seven pilots have been confronted with special issues in the design process when compared with existing foreign schemes. This article analyses in depth the special issues related to cap setting and allowance allocation and the approaches adopted to address these issues. Flexible cap setting through a bottom-up approach and different types of allocation methods with or without ex post adjustment are adopted in the pilots. The flexible and innovative approaches the pilots have developed could provide useful experience for designing the nationwide ETS in China and promoting emissions trading policy in other parts of the world.     

基于Android和iOS的极地移动信息平台设计与开发

以智能手机为载体的移动互联网迅速发展,其中Android(安卓)和i OS(苹果移动操作系统)占绝大多数。本文以Android和i OS为开发平台,设计实现了中国南北极考察数据浏览与互动的移动信息平台——掌上两极。该平台已通过专家评审并在苹果应用商店和安卓市场正式发布,为极地管理部门、科研人员和社会公众便捷、快速获取极地相关信息提供了新的通道。     

Ambiguity in the altitude effect of precipitation isotopes for estimating groundwater recharge elevation and paleoelevation reconstruction in the leeward side of a mountain

The altitude effect of isotopes in precipitation is not as significant on the leeward side of a mountain as it is on the windward side, which makes it difficult to use isotopes at leeward sites, especially if estimating elevation of groundwater recharge or reconstructing paleoelevations. Samples of precipitation were taken at three stations with different elevations—2,306–3,243 m above mean sea level (asl)—on the leeward side of the Meili Snow Mountains on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau from August 2017 to July 2018. The isotope vs. altitude gradients were calculated based on two adjacent stations at the daily, monthly, and annual scales. Most of the gradients are beyond the global ranges of –0.5 to –0.1‰ per 100 m for δ¹⁸O and –5 to –1‰ per 100 m for δ²H, and some of the gradients are even positive. Local processes of sub-cloud evaporation and mixing with recycled moisture are identified for the ambiguous altitude effect, while regional atmospheric circulation processes dominate the major patterns of stable isotope variation at the three stations. The groundwater recharge elevation is estimated to be in a very large range, 2,562–6,321 m asl, which could be caused by the differences in isotope vs. altitude gradient in the studied catchments. Considering the complex atmospheric processes affecting precipitation isotopes, sampling of event-based/monthly precipitation at more than two altitudes for at least one complete hydrological year is a minimum requirement to establish a reasonable isotope vs. altitude gradient.