沙尘暴灾害致灾因子三维联合分布与重现期探索

探讨多致灾因子对Copula联合分布模型在三维多致灾因子综合分析中的扩展.针对沙尘暴形成的3个基本条件:大风、丰富的沙尘源和不稳定的大气层结,以内蒙古镶黄旗1990-2008年的强沙尘暴灾害事件为案例,建立了经向环流指数、地面平均最大风速和地表土壤湿度3个基本特征变量的联合分布,计算了基于联合分布的联合重现期.研究表明,镶黄旗强沙尘暴事件的三维致灾因子符合Frank Copula函数构建条件,该函数能够很好地描述强沙尘暴灾害3个基本特征变量的联合分布,具备扩展到三维的能力.相对于二维Copula函数拟合效果,三维Frank Copula在中高尾部分的拟合有很大提高.三变量联合重现期的计算结果更加贴近实际情况.     

Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades

The exploration of the characteristics of natural disasters (NDs) and their impacts have important implications for guiding disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper discussed the characteristics of the major NDs that occurred in mainland China between 1980 and 2011 based on the number of disasters and fatalities, the affected population, and the resulting economic damages. We further examined the relationships between the level of social/economic development and the disaster losses. At last, we also explored the trend variations in disaster losses and losses expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (losses/GDP) for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1990 to 2011. The results show that over the past three decades, the number of major NDs and the number of affected population appear to exhibit a detectable increasing trend, while the direct economic losses and the deaths show a slight increase trend. The correlations between the number of disasters and the economic losses as well as deaths and between the economic losses and socioeconomic status were not significant (p > 0.05), which indicates that the growth in the number of disasters do not result in a significant increase in the disaster losses. Further investigations demonstrate that as economies develop, there are fewer losses/GDP in China over the past two decades. The per capita accumulative losses and losses/GDP in the western and central regions were higher than that in the eastern parts of China. There are significant regional differences in the trends in disaster losses and losses/GDP in China. Statistics also indicate that more than 70 % provinces in underdeveloped regions show an increasing trend in disaster losses, whereas exceeding 90 % provinces exhibit a decreasing trend in their losses/GDP. These results suggest that the economic development may have played an important role in improving the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction.     

Effects of modified clay on cysts of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scrippsiella trochoidea</Emphasis> for harmful algal bloom control

We present results on the effect of modified clay on cyst formation of Scrippsiella trochoidea in harmful algal bloom （HAB）. Modified clay （in concentration of 0, 0.1, 0.5, and 1.0 g/L） were added to cultures, and observations were made on cysts of S. trochoidea under controlled laboratory conditions. Results indicate that the removal rate of algal cells reached 97.7% at the clay concentration of 1.0 g/L. The cyst formation rate increased from 4.6% to 24.6% when the concentration of clay was increased from 0 to 1.0 g/L. Two cyst metamorphs were observed： spinal calcareous cysts and smooth noncalcareous ones. The proportion of the spinal cysts decreased from 76.9% to 24.1% when clay concentration increased from 0 to 1.0 g/L. In addition, modified clay affected cyst germination. The germination rate decreased with the increases in the clay concentrations. Non-calcareous cysts had a lower germination rate with a longer germination time. We conclude that modified clay could depress algal cell multiplication and promote formation of temporal cysts of S. trochoidea, which may help in controlling HAB outbreaks.     

Provenance evolution of the Jurassic northern Qaidam Basin (West China) and its geological implications: evidence from detrital zircon geochronology

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Jurassic system is the major hydrocarbon source rock and of crucial importance for understanding the Mesozoic intra-continental tectonics in West...     

伊春林区影响3种主要林木生长量的气候因子分析

基于林木生长观测资料和平行观测的气象资料,初步讨论了温度、降水量、辐射量对林木生长量的影响。结果表明:林木生长期的温量指数、降水量、日平均辐射量对3种主要林木年生长量具有一定的影响,建立了气象因子与3种主要林木单株年生长量的线性方程。     

Molecular identification of Prorocentrum （Dinophyceae） species

A fragment of a large sub-unit ribosomal DNA (LrDNA) of 12 strains of Prorocentrum species was amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The PCR products were digested by 3 restriction endonucleases (Cfo Ⅰ, Hae Ⅲ, and RSA Ⅰ) and then resolved in agarose gels. Results show that different species had different RFLP patterns, except for P arcuatum (ME 131), which had the same pattern to P. micans (ME 160 and 04).The same fragment of 19 strains of the genus was also amplified and subjected to denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). 11 different patterns were resolved. Different cultures of a same species had the same pattern. The results of RFLP and DGGE analyses showed that eight newly isolated epibenthic Prorocentrum species were different from each other, and also from other cultured ones examined in this study. P arcuatum(MEI32) could not be differentiated from P. micans (MEI60 and 04), it was probably mis-identified, since they are quite different morphologically. P. redfieldii (MEI38) could also not be distinguished form P. triestinium(MEI32), it should be regarded as a synonym ofP. triestinium. Unexpectedly, a restriction site was found in P.micans, compared with previous sequence data.     

各向均匀外压力作用下环肋圆柱壳的稳定特性

各向均匀外压力作用下的环肋圆柱壳，在总稳定方面会出现异常特性，例如，其稳定性不能正常地随其刚度的增加而增大。本文根据环肋圆柱壳在三种外力状态下（仅受轴向均匀外压，仅受横向均匀外压和各向均匀外压），总稳定性随几何参数变化的规律，从理论上详细说明了异常特性的实质是仅受轴向外压的特性，最后用模型实验结果证明理论分析与研究的正确性。     

单机版国内气象通信系统CTS1.0省级备份方案设计与实现

国内气象通信系统CTS1.0是CIMISS业务的重要组成部分,其资料传输情况也是各省气象信息业务考核的重要指标之一。但目前省级CTS1.0缺少有效的备份手段,导致其在运行连续性方面存在隐患。在本文中,作者从性价比、运维复杂度等方面综合考虑,提出了一套单机版的省级CTS1.0备份方案,并对其系统架构、数据流程、基础平台选型等关键内容进行了分析。该方案对业务切换过程进行了精细化设计,确保业务配置一致性及监控数据流转的不间断,保证了单机版CTS切换过程中的业务连续性。同时在基础架构方面,采用SSD固态硬盘替代磁盘阵列,获得了较高的系统I/O性能,使单机版承载能力显著提升。通过在部分省局进行的压力测试以及对系统I/O性能的分析,表明该方案能够为省级CTS1.0业务备份提供可靠的支撑。     

Information standardization for typical toxic and harmful algae in China’s coastal waters—a case study of Karenia mikimotoi

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - To assist the researches of toxic and harmful algae and provide government workers with judgment basis for decision-making related events, we established a...     

大兴安岭中段天险沟石英二长斑岩的成因——锆石U-Pb年龄、地球化学和Sr—Nd同位素特征

本文通过岩石学、锆石U- Pb年代学和地球化学等研究,对大兴安岭中段天险沟石英二长斑岩的成因、物质来源和构造背景进行了探讨。通过锆石LA-ICPMS U-Pb定年法,得到天险沟石英二长斑岩的年龄为124.4±1.0 Ma,时代为早白垩世早期。天险沟石英二长斑岩属碱性、准铝质岩,里特曼指数σ为3.86～5.10,K2O+Na2O=9.14%～10.35%,钾钠比为0.93～1.0,A/CNK=0.76～0.93,成因类型为I型花岗岩。岩石富集La、Ba、Ce、U等大离子亲石元素,相对亏损Hf、Zr等高场强元素;（La/Yb）N=11.72～13.90,分馏明显,轻稀土富集,而重稀土亏损,Nb、Ta负异常,具岛弧花岗岩的地球化学特征。δEu=1.00～1.59。\[n（87Sr）/n（86Sr）\]i=0.705065,εNd（t）=1.93,源区可能为上地幔。结合大兴安岭地区中生代地壳演化背景,认为天险沟石英二长斑岩形成于与洋壳俯冲有关的火山弧环境,区域应力场由挤压向伸展转换,岩浆源区为上地幔。