风向现场校准三点测量不确定度分析

基于风向传感器的静态三点校准方法,介绍自动气象站风向传感器校准结果的测量不确定度评定,目的是为保证风向传感器观测数据的准确、可靠和可信。依据《自动气象站风向现场校准方法》和JJF1059.1—2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》的要求,对风向的3个校准点分别设计10次重复试验,采用合并样本标准偏差的方法,进行A类不确定度评定。并分析校准过程中的B类不确定度来源,进行B类不确定度评定。最后将A类与B类不确定度合成,得到扩展不确定度。该评定方法对风向传感器校准结果可信度评定具有参考价值。     

Simulating Aerosol Size Distribution and Mass Concentration with Simultaneous Nucleation,Condensation/Coagulation,and Deposition with the GRAPES–CUACE

A coupled aerosol–cloud model is essential for investigating the formation of haze and fog and the interaction of aerosols with clouds and precipitation. One of the key tasks of such a model is to produce correct mass and number size distributions of aerosols. In this paper, a parameterization scheme for aerosol size distribution in initial emission,which took into account the measured mass and number size distributions of aerosols, was developed in the GRAPES–CUACE [Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System–China Meteorological Administration(CMA) Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment model]—an online chemical weather forecast system that contains microphysical processes and emission, transport, and chemical conversion of sectional multi-component aerosols. In addition, the competitive mechanism between nucleation and condensation for secondary aerosol formation was improved, and the dry deposition was also modified to be in consistent with the real depositing length. Based on the above improvements, the GRAPES–CUACE simulations were verified against observational data during 1–31 January 2013, when a series of heavy regional haze–fog events occurred in eastern China. The results show that the aerosol number size distribution from the improved experiment was much closer to the observation, whereas in the old experiment the number concentration was higher in the nucleation mode and lower in the accumulation mode. Meanwhile, the errors in aerosol number size distribution as diagnosed by its sectional mass size distribution were also reduced. Moreover, simulations of organic carbon, sulfate, and other aerosol components were improved and the overestimation as well as underestimation of PM2.5 concentration in eastern China was significantly reduced,leading to increased correlation coefficient between simulated and observed PM2.5 by more than 70%. In the remote areas where bad simulation results were produced previously, the correlation coefficient grew from 0.35 to 0.61, and the mean mass concentration went up from 43% to 87.5% of the observed value. Thus, the simulation of particulate matters in these areas has been improved considerably.     

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JJG自动气象站气象要素计量性能要求合理性探讨

针对自动气象站的温度、雨量对应的检定规程,就其相关指标和规定的合理性进行探讨。目的在于让检定规程更加完善、合理。根据相应仪器本身的特性,结合实际工作经验,以分析误差构成进行理论推导,得出温度（地温）,雨量计量性能要求中最大允许误差等不合理的结果,从误差公式中重新确定了温度、雨量的最大允许误差,分别对规程指标的确定提出了修改建议。     

北京城市和郊区夏季降雨日变化特征及对排水设计的影响分析

分别选取观象台和密云站作为北京市城区及郊区代表站,应用两站1961—2013年逐分钟雨量观测资料,比较北京城区和郊区夏季降雨量、降雨频次及降雨强度的日变化特征,利用耿贝尔分布拟合的年最大值法推求城区和郊区暴雨强度公式,比较其空间适用性。结果表明,北京地区降雨具有明显的日变化特征：城市和郊区的夜雨比重均大于日雨,降雨量、频次、降雨强度午后至次日清晨为高值区;郊区夏季降雨总量、短历时降雨和降雨雨强均比城区偏大。暴雨强度公式计算结果表明应用城区一站的降雨资料计算得出的公式在全市并不适用,在市政排水设计时应考虑城郊差异,采用不同的标准。     

On the possible mechanism of the first ground level enhancement in cosmic ray intensity of solar cycle 24

We have carried out this work to comprehend the possible mechanisms of the first ground level enhancement (GLE71 17 May 2012 01:50 UT) in cosmic ray intensity of the solar cycle 24. For this, the cosmic ray intensities registered by neutron monitors at several sites have been analyzed and studied with concurrent solar flares of different energy channels. To assess empirically whether the GLE might have been caused by the energy released from solar flare or CME-driven shock, we identify the possible time line in terms of the lowest spectral index determined from proton fluxes. If the GLE is caused by the energy released from particle acceleration in solar flare, the intensive phase of the flare representing the extreme emission should exist within/around the possible time line. In this respect, it is observed that the possible time line lies within the prominent phase of CME-driven shock. For better understanding, we have checked the possible relativistic energy with respect to solar flare as well as CME-driven shock. As witnessed, if the extreme emission phase of the flare is considered as the reason for the causation of GLE peak, the flare components procured insufficient amount of energy (≤～0.085 GeV) to produce a GLE. If the extreme emission phase of the flare is also considered as the dominator along GLE onset, the possible energy procurement (≤～0.414 GeV) is still not adequate to produce a GLE. In contrast, the CME-driven shock is capable of procuring enough possible relativistic energy (≥～1.21 GeV) that is sufficient amount of the energy for a GLE production. Any amount of the energy (<0.414 GeV) released from preceding flare components is supposed to have been contributed to the shock process. Thus, it is assumed that the GLE71 was possibly caused by the energy released from the shock acceleration, which might have been boosted by the energy emanated from preceding flare.     

山东半岛一次冷流暴雪过程的中尺度模拟与云微物理特征分析

本文以NCEP-FNL资料作为初始场和边界场,采用WRF中尺度模式对2010年12月29-30日发生在山东半岛的一次冷流暴雪过程进行数值模拟,并利用高时空分辨率模拟结果分析此次过程的中尺度特征和云微物理特征.模拟与分析结果表明,此次暴雪过程发生在较强的海气温差背景下,渤海海表对冷空气的增温增湿作用显著,通过湍流交换等作用向低层大气输送大量感热、潜热和水汽;水汽由渤海中部海域输送到山东半岛东北部地区,其上空水汽辐合层比较浅薄,集中在800 hPa以下,相对湿度饱和层和比湿高值维持的时间与强降雪时段一致;中尺度海岸锋的生消过程对冷流暴雪过程形成有着重要作用,水平方向上呈现为偏北风和偏西风的强辐合带,局地环流中的上升运动触发不稳定能量释放,直接决定暴雪的落区和强度,这是产生浅对流降雪的主要物理机制;云中水凝物粒子的高度在600 hPa以下,最大值出现在850～900 hPa之间与浅对流结构相对应;各水凝物粒子含量相差较大,以雪和霰最多.     

2011年度江苏省雷电活动及雷击灾害特征

从雷暴日时间分布、区域性雷电活动时间分布、地闪时间分布等方面分析了2011年度江苏省雷电活动的时间分布特征,并从雷暴日空间分布、地闪频次空间分布等方面分析了雷电活动的空间分布特征,继而对2011年度江苏省雷电灾害的时空分布及受灾类型特征进行了分析.结果表明:2011年江苏省雷电活动峰值出现在8月,全省范围雷暴过程达11次,较往年偏多,11月出现2次大范围雷暴过程,为历史罕见;全省雷电活动空间分布总体为南多北少,江淮之间南部及苏南中东部大部分地区为雷暴高发区;雷电灾害主要出现在6—8月,办公电子设备受损案例最多,其次为家用电子设备;85%的雷击人员伤亡事故发生在农村.最后,提出了雷电防御的对策及建议.     

地热系统深部热能聚敛理论及勘查实践

深部热能聚敛及富集过程研究是地热资源探测评价的重要基础。地热壳构热控理论是以地球动力学理论为基础,以构造控热作用研究为主线,通过大地构造学、构造地质学、地热地质学等学科理论和方法,研究深部热能聚敛过程及热异常分布规律,分析各种构造要素间的相互作用及控热机制,探讨地热资源靶区预测方法,从而指导地热勘查的科学。本文系统论述了地热壳构热控理论的内涵与外延,提出了我国不同类型地热资源“同源共生-壳幔生热-构造聚热”的客观自然规律,分析了我国陆区壳幔尺度热流配分格局与不同地质背景条件下影响浅地表温度场的主要控热构造,并以渤海湾盆地、青藏高原、东南沿海等我国主要地热系统为研究对象,以壳构热控理论为指导,以勘查区找热为出发点,以控热作用内生因素(壳幔生热)和外生因素(构造聚热)为切入点,通过研究影响壳幔生热、壳内传热、勘查靶区聚热这一地球物理过程,确定了不同构造背景下地热系统的主要控热构造。从传统的经验式找热到建立构造控热预测标志,再到水热型地热资源-干热型地热资源共生富集认知,理论认识的创新发展,将引领和支撑我国地热资源不断实现高效勘探和开发利用。