城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性与可预报性

主要综述了数据误差、随机误差和模式物理误差所造成的城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性,简要介绍分析预报不确定性的统计方法。并对由内在随机性和外在误差引起的可预报性问题进行了分析讨论     

两种珍稀鱼类的形态学和生态学的补充研究

通过形态学比较研究和饲养生态学的观察,作者补充了细刺鱼牙齿结构特征和条石鲷的体色、鳍色的形态学特点,探讨了这两种鱼类的生态习性和１９９８ 年在青岛海域出现的原因。进行２～３ 个月的饲养实验后,得到细刺鱼月均增长量为１０．３％ ,条石鲷为１４．６％ 而明显高于同池饲养六线鱼的结果。鉴于两种鱼类彩色艳丽、游姿优美,具观赏价值,为此建议可将这两种鱼作为海水养殖或观赏鱼类的实验对象     

胶州湾北部水层生态动力学模型与模拟 Ⅱ.胶州湾北部水层生态动力学的模拟研究

利用建立起的浅海水层生态动力学箱式模型,模拟了胶州湾北部１９９５年的浮游植物、浮游动物、无机氮、无机磷、溶解氧以及ＤＯＣ和ＰＯＣ年变化特征。结果是合理的。通过模型参数敏感性实验分析,揭示了该模型系统的一些动力学特征     

琼东南盆地华光凹陷天然气水合物稳定带厚度的影响因素

为了探讨琼东南盆地华光凹陷海底天然气水合物稳定带的分布规律,定量研究了静水压力、底水温度、地温梯度和气源组分对水合物稳定带的影响程度。在此基础上,分析了华光凹陷现今甲烷水合物稳定带的厚度分布。最后,综合各因素的历史演化过程,初步探讨了华光凹陷1.05 Ma BP以来天然气水合物稳定带的演化。结果表明:(1)气源组分和海底温度的变化对研究区内水合物稳定带的影响较大;水合物稳定带厚度与海底温度呈良好的线性负相关性。(2)水深超过600 m的海域具备形成天然气水合物的温压条件;超过600 m水深的海域水合物稳定带厚度大部分超过 100 m,其中西北部稳定带的最大厚度超过300 m,是有利的水合物勘探区。(3)华光凹陷1.05 Ma BP以来天然气水合物稳定带厚度经历了快速增厚–窄幅变化–快速减薄和恢复的过程。麻坑群与水合物稳定变化敏感区在空间上具有较好的叠合关系。结合前人的研究成果,推测其形成与天然气水合物的分解释放有关。     

Geochemistry of pore waters from the Xisha Trough, northern South China Sea and their implications for gas hydrates

This paper reports all available geochemical data on sediments and pore waters from the Xisha Trough on the northern continental margin of the South China Sea. The methane concentrations in marine sediments display a downhole increasing trend and their carbon isotopic compositions (δ ¹³C = −25 to −51‰) indicate a thermogenic origin. Pore water Cl⁻ concentrations show a range from 537 to 730 mM, and the high Cl⁻ samples also have higher concentrations of Br⁻, Na⁺, K⁺, and Mg²⁺, implying mixing between normal seawater and brine in the basin. The SO₄ ²⁻ concentrations of pore waters vary from 19.9 to 36.8 mM, and show a downhole decreasing trend. Calculated SMI (sulfate-methane interfaces) depths and sulfate gradients are between 21 and 47 mbsf, and between −0.7 and −1.7 mM/m, respectively, which are similar to values in gas hydrate locations worldwide and suggest a high methane flux in the basin. Overall, the geochemical data, together with geological and geophysical evidence, such as the high sedimentation rates, high organic carbon contents, thick sediment piles, salt and mud diapirs, active faulting, abundant thermogenic gases, and occurrence of huge bottom simulating reflector (BSR), are suggestive of a favorable condition for occurrence of gas hydrates in this region.     

海底声学底质分类的ELM-AdaBoost方法

基于自适应增强算法（AdaBoost）结合极限学习机（ELM）,通过迭代、调整、优化ELM分类器之间的权值,从而构建了具有强鲁棒性、高精度的ELM-AdaBoost强分类器,增强了现有的ELM分类器的稳定性。以珠江口海区侧扫声呐图像为实验数据,对礁石、砂、泥3类典型底质进行分类识别,该方法的平均分类精度超过90%,优于单一ELM分类器的平均分类精度85.95%,也优于LVQ、BP等传统分类器,且在分类所耗时间上也远少于传统分类器。实验结果表明,本文构建的ELM-AdaBoost方法可有效应用于海底声学底质分类,可满足实时底质分类的需求。     

哈拉哈塘地区东河砂岩段-角砾岩段沉积模式探讨

塔北的哈拉哈塘地区是东河砂岩油气勘探的重点地区,该地区目前已发现并探明了东河塘和哈得4两个东河砂岩油气藏,油气储量丰富,显示出良好的勘探前景。基于哈拉哈塘地区东河砂岩段和角砾岩段的岩性段穿时沉积现象异常明显,根据层序地层学原理和方法对哈拉哈塘地区东河砂岩段一角砾岩段进行了重新分层和对比,在层序分层等时地层框架的基础上重新进行了东河砂岩段一角砾岩段沉积模式研究,弄清该地区地层分布规律、演化规律、砂体分布及储层分布规律对该地区的油气勘探具有重要指导意义。     

Diurnal variation of nitric oxide emission flux from a mangrove wetland in Zhangjiang River Estuary,China

The diurnal variation of nitric oxide (NO) emission fluxes from a Kandelia obovata and Avicennia marina mangrove wetland were studied in the Zhangjiang River Estuary Mangrove National Nature Reserve using a dynamic chamber-based technique and a chemiluminescent analyzer. Results from field experiments show that NO emission from K. obovata and A. marina sampling sites reached maximal values of 1.07 ng N m⁻² s⁻¹ and 1.23 ng N m⁻² s⁻¹, respectively after the night tide. Meanwhile NO emission maintained at a steady lower level in daytime for both wetland sites. In laboratory experiments, NO emission from the mangrove wetland soil samples treated with simulated tides in the darkness exhibited higher values than those in the light, therefore it seems that tides and darkness could increase NO emission from mangrove wetlands, while intensive light, high temperature, and dryness in the daytime decreased NO emission. Compared with K. obovata soil samples, the diurnal average NO emission rate of the A. marina site was significantly higher, which was closely related to relatively higher diurnal average CO₂ emission rate, soil available nitrogen content and soil net nitrification rate of the A. marina site. Moreover, soil samples of the A. marina site were more responsive to simulated tides and the addition of nitrogen than those of the K. obovata site.     

Multi-step ahead short-term predictions of storm surge level using CNN and LSTM network

Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents' safety, property, and lives, particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels. Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans. In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations. Convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) are two of the most important models among AI techniques. However, they have been scarcely utilised for surge level (SL) forecasting, and combinations of the two models are even rarer. This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information. The architectures of the CNN, LSTM, and two sequential techniques of combining the models (LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM) were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies. As a case study, 11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station, Hainan Province, China, were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models. The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression (SVR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), and the combined models outperformed the individual models (CNN and LSTM), mostly by 4％–6％. However, on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges, the accuracy was found to improve by over 10％ at all forecasting steps.     

Facies character and geochemical signature in the late Quaternary meteoric diagenetic carbonate succession at the Xisha Islands,South China Sea

The late Quaternary shallow-water carbonates have been altered by a variety of diagenetic processes, and further influenced by high-amplitude global and regional sea level changes. This study utilizes a new borehole drilled on the Yongxing Island, Xisha Islands to investigate meteoric diagenetic alteration in the late Quaternary shallowwater carbonates. Petrographic, mineralogical, stable isotopic and elemental data provide new insights into the meteoric diagenetic processes of the reef limestone. The results show the variation in the distribution of aragonite,high-Mg calcite(HMC) and low-Mg calcite(LMC) divides the shallow-water carbonates in Core SSZK1 into three intervals, which are Unit I(31.20–55.92 m, LMC), Unit II(18.39–31.20 m, aragonite and LMC) and Unit III(upper 18.39 m of core, aragonite, LMC and HMC). Various degrees of meteoric diagenesis exist in the identified three units. The lowermost Unit I has suffered almost complete freshwater diagenesis, whereas the overlying Units II and III have undergone incompletely meteoric diagenesis. The amount of time that limestone has been in the freshwater diagenetic environment has the largest impact on the degree of meteoric diagenesis. Approximately four intact facies/water depth cycles are recognized. The cumulative depletion of elements such as strontium(Sr),sodium(Na) and sulphur(S) caused by duplicated meteoric diagenesis in the older reef sequences are distinguished from the younger reef sequences. This study provides a new record of meteoric diagenesis, which is well reflected by whole-rock mineralogy and geochemistry.