非等步长GM(1,1)模型在建筑物变形监测中的应用研究

将灰色系统理论应用于建筑物变形监测数据分析,针对观测周期的不确定性因素,提出使用非等步长GM(1,1)模型进行监测,并用最小二乘法求解模型参数,给出模型精度的检验方法,并以实际的建筑物的沉降观测数据为例说明应用此方法的全部过程,将分析和预测结果与传统GM模型进行比对,获得了更好的拟合数据和预测数据,且精度更高。     

2007-2017年中国沙尘气溶胶的三维分布特征及输送过程

利用最新发布的CALIPSO产品,构建了2007-2017年中国沙尘气溶胶的三维分布,并结合HYSPLIT-4模式和再分析数据,探讨了沙尘的三维输送过程。结果表明：中国的沙尘排放源区主要是塔克拉玛干沙漠和巴丹吉林沙漠,沙尘气溶胶出现频率分别为60%和35%。塔克拉玛干沙漠排放的沙尘主要（50%~70%）停留在源地0~6 000 m高度,少部分向东输送至甘肃和内蒙古;巴丹吉林沙漠排放的沙尘则主要向东输送。中国沙尘排放量在春季最大,向东输送最强;夏季,东亚夏季风限制了沙尘向东输送;秋季,沙尘排放减弱,输送强度和夏季相当;沙尘排放量在冬季最小,输送最弱。夏季,沙尘在输送过程中可被抬升至高度5 000 m以上,春季次之,秋、冬季的沙尘主要在低层大气输送。沙尘在向东输送的过程中被抬升并和当地人为污染物混合变为污染性沙尘,华北地区污染性沙尘出现频率高达30%;输送到海洋的沙尘也会与洋面上（0~3 000 m高度）的海盐气溶胶混合,出现频率约为10%。     

采煤塌陷地水域淹没范围模拟分析

采煤塌陷改变了矿区周边的地形地貌特征,使大量的耕地、园地变成水域。选择山东省龙口采煤塌陷区为研究对象,运用ArcGIS软件采集五期1:1万等高线和离散高程点数据,生成1×1 m2正方形网格的数字地面模型(DEM),以地表没有发生塌陷前的1978年DEM为标准高程数据,与其他各期DEM数据进行差值运算处理,得到不同时期采煤塌陷区面积。然后根据水利部门48年来的观测数据,计算出采煤塌陷区不同频率年份丰水期水文特征值,采用"无源淹没"分析法,计算给定水位条件下的采煤塌陷区水域淹没范围。     

山东省9216号强热带气旋风暴期间的海岸侵蚀灾害

本文比较详细地报导了山东省沿岸在９２１６号强热带气旋风暴潮期间的海岸侵蚀灾害情况，分析了灾害的形成原因、特点。最后讨论了与之有关的问题。     

Study of Influence of Regional Geodynamic Background on Strata Behaviors in China's Tongxin Mine

Strata behaviors are mainly affected by regional geodynamic background. The influence of rock mass stress and energy distribution on strata behaviors in the Tongxin mine is studied in terms of regional tectonic movement, seismic activity and tectonic stress field. The results show that the extrusion lifting movement of Kouquan fault adjacent to the Tongxin mine results in the stress concentration in the rock of the Carboniferous coal bed and accumulation of a large amount of elastic energy and forms structural background of Tongxin mine. Due to various seismic activities in the mine area, the strain energy is known to reach much higher levels, up to 0.5×10⁸ J^1/2. Since the stratigraphic structure is sensitive to the mining operation, the strain energy could cause strong strata behaviors. A special geological structure model of the Tongxin mine is established based on the geodynamic division method. The distribution of regional structure stress field is determined by the rock mass stress analysis system. Based on this model, Tongxin mine is divided into five areas with high stress, eight areas with low stress and eight areas with gradient stress. The strong strata behaviors mostly occur in high stress areas. These results could provide guidance to predict the strength of regional or mine pressure and control strata behavior in different areas.     

西藏隆子县恰嘎锑矿4号脉原生晕特征及深部找矿预测

西藏隆子县恰嘎锑矿位于藏南错美-隆子锑金成矿带中东部,该区成矿条件有利,是找锑铅锌的良好靶区。研究表明：①矿体原生晕发育,且分带明显。②结合原生异常分布态势及其与矿体的关系,成晕组分可以分为：前缘元素（Cd、Hg、As）、近矿元素（上部为Pb、Zn,中部为Sb,下部为Cu、Au、Ag）、尾晕元素（Mn、Bi、Mo、W、Sn）。③对该区利用浓集中心法和分带指数法分别求出了相近的分带序列：Pb-Zn-Mn-Bi-Mo-W-Sn-Cd-Hg-As-Sb-Cu-Au-Ag-Ba。④深部找矿方面,矿体很大可能向深部继续延伸或有盲矿体存在,且该矿床为热液型矿床。⑤在原生晕系统研究的基础上构建了深部矿体评价的指标（Cd×Hg×As×Sb）D/（Bi×Mo×W×Sn）D,数据表明该指标随深度的增加有规律地降低,是预测深部矿体资源潜力的有效指标。     

Geochemistry of Alkaline—Ultrabasic Rocks in the Jijie Complex,Lufeng,Yunnan

is paper is concerned with the geochemical features of major elements,transition metal elements,large ion lithophile elements,rare-earth elements and Sr isotopes in alkaline-ul-trabasic rocks in the Jijie complex of Lufeng,Yunnan Province,which is located in southern Sichuan-Yunnan rift zone,one of Luoci alkaline-ultrabasic complexes in central Ynnnan,Moreover,its origin pertaining primary magma,magma soure region,fractional crystallization,etc.are also discussed in the present paper.     

REE Geochemistry of Precambrian Metamorphic Rocks in Wutaishan Region

The metasedimentary-volcanic series of the Wutai and Hutuo groups experienced regional metamorphism and thus turned into moderate-to low-grade metamorphic rocks.REE abundances and REE distribution patterns in the Shizui and Taihuai Subgroup metasedimentary-volcanic rocks are typical of the Archean,whereas the Gaofan Subgroup and the Hutuo Group show post-Archean REE geochemical char-acteristics.Five types of REE distribution pattern are distinguished:(1)rightward inclined smooth curves with little REE anomaly(Eu/Eu*=0.73-0.95) and heavy REE depletion (e.g.the Late Archean metasedimentary rocks);(2)rightward inclined V-shaped curves with sharp Eu anoma-ly (Eu/Eu*=0.48-0.76) and slightly higher ∑REE (e.g.the post-Archean metasedimentary rocks);(3) rightward inclined steep curves with negative Eu anomaly(Eu/Eu*=0.73-0.76) and the lowest ∑REE (e.g.the post-Archean dolomites);(4)rightward inclined,nearly smooth curves with both positive Eu anomaly and unremarkable positive Eu anomaly(Eu/Eu*=0.95-1.25)(e.g.the meta-basic volcanic rocks);and (5) rightward inclined curves with Eu anomaly(Eu/Eu*=1.09-1.19)and heavy REE depletion(e.g.the meta-acid volcanic rocks).Strata of the two groups are considered to have been formed in an island-arc belt-an instable continental petrogenetic environment.     

传统时期太湖流域的渔民及其生计

传统时期太湖流域的渔民群体分为陆上定居的兼业渔民(仍属农民身份)和水上流动的专业渔民,其生产与生活方式因水环境和鱼资源的分布而存在区域差异。太湖周边低地湖荡区的兼业渔民从事捕鱼的环境支持度和资源便利程度较高,渔业在农村副业序列中占有重要地位。东部河网地区水鱼资源欠丰,捕鱼技术简单,农民捕鱼生产的季节性和流动性较大。太湖上流动捕鱼的专业渔民生产技术高,具有规模化和互助性,构成自然捕捞商品鱼生产的主力大军。流动于东部内河上的专业渔民以单家独户生产为主,产量低收入少,缺乏互助合作。各类渔民共同具有的流动性和人口来源的复杂性,使其成为社会安全管理的重灾区,也是促成20世纪60,70年代政府彻底实施渔民上岸定居的重要原因。     

春秋两季鄱阳湖浮游动物的编目、数量分布与变动

分析鉴定了1999年春、秋两季,在鄱阳湖区8个断面24个采样站采得的水样．共观察到各类浮游动物共150种．其中轮虫动物物种最为丰富,为96种,占总种数的64．0％,且单位体积的数量亦呈明显优势,说明轮虫动物是该湖区浮游动物的优势类群;其次为原生动物．24个采样站中,原生动物、轮虫动物、枝角类、桡足类这四类浮游动物个体数量分布的差异极大,其中第10、12、13和23号站中的个体数量较高,超过100ind／L最大数量出现在13号站,个体数量高达1101．60ind／L鄱阳湖浮游动物的数量有明显的季节变动,尤属轮虫的变动最大．本次调查中轮虫和枝角类的数量春季大于秋季,而原生动物和桡足类则秋季大于春季．