Scale aspects of groundwater flow and transport systems

Flow-system analysis is based on the concept of hierarchical groundwater flow systems. The topography of the water table, which is strongly related to the topography of the land surface, is a major factor in the hierarchical nesting of gravity-driven groundwater flow, resulting in flow systems of different orders of magnitude in lateral extent and depth of penetration. The concept of flow systems is extremely useful in the analysis of spatial and temporal scales and their mutual relationships. Basic equations on the laboratory scale are extended to larger, regional scales. Making use of Fourier analysis further develops Tóth's original idea of topography-driven flow systems. In this way, the different spatial scales of the water table are separated in a natural way, leading to a simple expression for the penetration depth of a flow system. This decomposition leads also to the relationship between spatial and temporal scales. Analogous to flow systems, water bodies with different water quality may be called 'transport systems.' Field studies, numerical micro-scale modeling over macro-scale domains, and stochastic dispersion theory indicate that between systems with steady transport, the interfaces are relatively thin. The interfaces are much thinner than the relatively large mixing zones predicted by the conventional engineering approach to macrodispersion, in which relatively large, time-independent macrodispersion lengths are applied. A relatively simple alternative engineering approach is presented. For macrodispersion of propagating solute plumes, the alternative dispersion term gives the same results as the conventional engineering approach and gives correct results for steady-state transport.     

Models as multiple working hypotheses: hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands

Tropical alpine grasslands, locally known as páramos, are the water towers of the northern Andes. They are an essential water source for drinking water, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants. But despite their high socio‐economic relevance, their hydrological processes are very poorly understood. Since environmental change, ranging from small scale land‐use changes to global climate change, is expected to have a strong impact on the hydrological behaviour, a better understanding and hydrological prediction are urgently needed. In this paper, we apply a set of nine hydrological models of different complexity to a small, well monitored upland catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes. The models represent different hypotheses on the hydrological functioning of the páramo ecosystem at catchment scale. Interpretation of the results of the model prediction and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters reveals important insights in the evapotranspiration, surface runoff generation and base flow in the páramo. However, problems with boundary conditions, particularly spatial variability of precipitation, pose serious constraints on the differentiation between model representations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.     

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.     

On the potential of plant species invasion influencing bio‐geomorphologic landscape formation in salt marshes

Species invasions are known to change biotic and abiotic ecosystem characteristics such as community structure, cycling of materials and dynamics of rivers. However, their ability to alter interactions between biotic and abiotic ecosystem components, in particular bio‐geomorphic feedbacks and the resulting landscape configuration in tidal wetlands, such as tidal channels have not yet been demonstrated. We studied the impact of altered bio‐geomorphic feedbacks on geomorphologic features (i.e. tidal wetland channels), by comparing proxies for channel network geometry (unchanneled flow lengths, fractal dimension) over time between non‐invaded and invaded salt marsh habitats. The non‐invaded habitats (the south of eastern Chongming Island, Yangtze estuary, China) show little change in network geometry over time with a tendency for an increased drainage density. The invaded site (salt marshes in the north of eastern Chongming Island invaded by the exotic plant species Spartina alterniflora) showed a decreasing tendency in channel drainage density throughout and after the species invasion. This suggests that species invasions might not only affect biotic ecosystem characteristics, but also their ability to change bio‐geomorphic feedback loops, potentially leading to changes in existing geomorphologic features and therefore landscape configuration. Our results further suggest that the species invasion also altered sediment composition. Based on observations we propose a mechanism explaining the change in channel drainage density by an alteration in plant properties. The physical and physiological characteristics of the invading species Spartina alterniflora clearly differ from the native species Scirpus mariqueter, inducing different bio‐geomorphic feedback loops leading to the observed change in salt marsh channel configuration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Network concepts to describe channel importance and change in multichannel systems: test results for the Jamuna River,Bangladesh

Most of the largest rivers on Earth have multiple active channels connected at bifurcations and confluences. At present a method to describe a channel network pattern and changes in the network beyond the simplistic braiding index is unavailable. Our objectives are to test a network approach to understand the character, stability and evolution of a multi‐channel river pattern under natural discharge conditions. We developed a semi‐automatic method to derive a chain‐like directional network from images that represent the multi‐channel river and to connect individual network elements through time. The Jamuna River was taken as an example with a series of Landsat TM and ETM+ images taken at irregular intervals between 1999 and 2004. We quantified the overall importance of individual channels in the entire network using a centrality property. Centrality showed that three reaches can be distinguished along the Jamuna with a different network character: the middle reach has dominantly one important channel, while upstream and downstream there are about two important channels. Temporally, relatively few channels changed dramatically in both low‐flow and high‐flow periods despite the increase of braiding index during a flood. Based on the centrality we calculated a weighted braiding index that represents the number of important channels in the network, which is about two in the Jamuna River and which is larger immediately after floods. We conclude that the network measure centrality provides a novel characterization of river channel networks, highlighting properties and tendencies that have morphological significance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy balance closure for the LITFASS-2003 experiment

In the first part, this paper synthesises the main results from a series of previous studies on the closure of the local energy balance at low-vegetation sites during the LITFASS-2003 experiment. A residual of up to 25% of the available energy has been found which cannot be fully explained either by the measurement uncertainty of the single components of the surface energy balance or by the length of the flux-averaging period. In the second part, secondary circulations due to heterogeneities in the surface characteristics (roughness, thermal and moisture properties) are discussed as a possible cause for the observed energy balance non-closure. This hypothesis seems to be supported from the fluxes derived from area-averaging measurement techniques (scintillometers, aircraft).