Space–time rainfall variability in the Paute basin,Ecuadorian Andes

Despite the importance of mountain ranges as water providers, knowledge of their climate variability is still limited, mostly due to a combination of data scarcity and heterogeneous orography. The tropical Andes share many of the main features of mountain ranges in general, and are subject to several climatic influences that have an effect on rainfall variability. Although studies have addressed the large-scale variation, the basin scale has received little attention. Thus, the purpose of this study was to obtain a better understanding of rainfall variability in the tropical Andes at the basin scal, utilizing the Paute River basin of southern Ecuador as a case study. Analysis of 23 rainfall stations revealed a high spatial variability in terms of: (i) large variations of mean annual precipitation in the range 660–3400 mm; (ii) the presence of a non-monotonic relation between annual precipitation and elevation; and (iii) the existence of four, sometimes contrasting, rainfall regimes. Data from seven stations for the period 1964–1998 was used to study seasonality and trends in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation. Seasonality is less pronounced at higher elevations, confirming that in the páramo region, the main water source for Andean basins, rainfall is well distributed year round. Additionally, during the period of record, no station has experienced extreme concentrations of annual rainfall during the wet season, which supports the concept of mountains as reliable water providers. Although no regional or basin-wide trends are found for annual precipitation, positive (negative) trends during the wet (dry) season found at four stations raises the likelihood of both water shortages and the risk of precipitation-triggered disasters. The study demonstrates how variable the precipitation patterns of the Andean mountain range are, and illustrates the need for improved monitoring. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the usefulness of remote sensing input data for spatially distributed hydrological modelling: case of the Tarim River basin in China

The ecological situation of the Tarim River basin in China seriously declined since the early 1950s, mainly due to a strong increase in water abstraction for irrigation purposes. To restore the ecological system and support sustainable development of the Tarim River basin region in China, more hydrological studies are demanded to properly understand the processes of the watershed and efficiently manage the water resources. Such studies are, however, complicated due to the limited data availability, especially in the mountainous headwater regions of the Tarim River basin. This study investigated the usefulness of remote sensing (RS) data to overcome that lack of data in the spatially distributed hydrological modelling of the basin. Complementary to the conventional station‐based (SB) data, the RS products that are directly used in this study include precipitation, evapotranspiration and leaf area index. They are derived from raw image data of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The MODIS land surface temperature was used to calculate the atmospheric temperature lapse rate to describe the temperature dependency on topographical variations. Moreover, MODIS‐based snow cover images were used to obtain model initial conditions and as validation reference for the snow model component. Comparison of model results based on RS input versus conventional SB input exhibited similar results in terms of high and low river runoff extremes, cumulative runoff volumes in both runoff and snow melting seasons and spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. During summer time, when the snow cover shrinks in the permanent glacier region, it was found that the model resolution influences the model results dramatically, hence, showing the importance of detailed (RS based) spatially distributed input data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change or nuclear power—No thanks! A quantitative study of public perceptions and risk framing in Britain

The UK is witnessing a new line in political debate around new nuclear energy generation as one potential feature of future energy policy, specifically for contributing to climate change mitigation alongside energy security. Little is known about how ordinary citizens might be responding to this reframing. This paper reports the results from a major British survey (n=1491) undertaken in the autumn of 2005. The consistent message is that while higher proportions of the British public are prepared to accept nuclear power if they believe it contributes to climate change mitigation, this is a highly conditional view, with very few actively preferring this over renewable sources given the choice. People see both climate change and nuclear power as problematic in terms of risks and express only a ‘reluctant acceptance’ of nuclear power as a ‘solution’ to climate change. The combined data from this survey can also be interpreted as an indication of the complexity surrounding beliefs about energy futures and the difficulty of undertaking simplistic risk–risk tradeoffs within any single framing of the issues; such as nuclear energy versus climate change. The results also indicate that it would be unwise, in the UK as elsewhere, to simplistically assume that there exists any single or stable public ‘opinion’ on such complex matters. We conclude with a discussion of the role and implications of the survey evidence for the policy process.     

Paleoproterozoic gabbronoritic and granitic magmatism in the northern margin of the North China craton: Evidence of crust–mantle interaction

Paleoproterozoic Xuwujia gabbronorites in the northern margin of the North China craton occur as dykes, sills and small plutons intruded into khondalite (aluminous paragneisses, sedimentary protoliths deposited at ca. 2.0–1.95 Ga), and as numerous entrained bodies and fragments of variable scales in the Liangcheng granitoids (ca. 1.93–1.89 Ga). These gabbronoritic dykes are present at all locations where ca. 1.93–1.92 Ga ultra-high-temperature metamorphism is recorded in the khondalite. A gabbronorite sample from the Hongmiaozi dyke gives zircon ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb mean ages of 1954 ± 6 Ma (core domains) and 1925 ± 8 Ma (rim domains). These ages, as well as previously reported ages, constrain the age of mafic magmatism to be at ca. 1.96–1.92 Ga (∼1.93 Ga). One sample from the Xigou gabbro intruded by the Liangcheng granitoids gives a zircon ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb mean age of 1857 ± 4 Ma, which is interpreted as the age of a metamorphic overprint. The Xuwujia gabbronorites comprise mainly gabbronorite compositions, as well as some norite, olivine gabbronorite, monzonorite, quartz gabbronorite, and quartz monzonorite. Chemically, they are tholeiitic and can be divided into two groups: a high-Mg group (6.2–22.9 wt.% MgO) and a relatively low-Mg group (2.2–5.7 wt.% MgO). The high-Mg group shows negative Eu-anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.53–0.72), slight light rare earth element enrichment (La/Yb_N = 0.56–1.53), and small negative anomalies in high field-strength elements. The ?Nd (t = 1.93 Ga) values vary from +0.3 to +2.4. The low-Mg group shows varied Eu-anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.48–1.05), and is enriched in light rare earth elements (La/Yb_N = 1.51–11.98). The majority shows negative anomalies in high field-strength elements (e.g., Th, Nb, Zr, and Ti). Initial ?Nd (at 1.93 Ga) values for low-Mg gabbronorites vary from −5.0 to 0. The Xuwujia gabbronorites possibly experienced assimilation of crust, and fractional crystallization of initially olivine and hypersthene (the high-Mg group), and then olivine, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase (the low-Mg group). The slightly younger Liangcheng granitoids consist of garnet-bearing granite, granodiorite and quartz-rich granitic compositions. They are intermediate to felsic calc-alkaline rocks, thought to be derived from surrounding metasedimentary crust. Xigou gabbro could represent early cumulates. The granitoids have relatively high-Mg numbers (up to 54), and show some chemical affinities with the gabbronorites, which could have resulted from incorporation of gabbronoritic melts. The occurrence and chemical variations of the Xuwujia gabbronorites and Liangcheng granitoids can be interpreted to have resulted from crust–mantle interaction, with mingling and partial mixing of mantle (gabbronoritic) and crustal (granitic) melts. The Xuwujia gabbronorites originated from a mantle region with high potential temperatures (∼1550 °C), possibly associated with a plume or more likely a ridge-subduction-related mantle upwelling event. They could have had extremely high primary intrusion temperatures (up to 1400 °C). Emplacement of these magmas was likely responsible for the extensive crustal anatexis (Liangcheng granitoids) and the local ultra-high-temperature metamorphism. These sequences may have followed ca. 1.95 Ga continent–continent (arc?) juxtaposition and were themselves followed by significant regional uplift and exhumation in the northern margin of the North China craton.     

Clay smear processes in mechanically layered sequences — Results of water-saturated model experiments with free top surface

The aim of this study is to improve our knowledge of the processes that lead to clay smear during faulting of a layered sand-clay sequence in an analogue sandbox model. We carefully characterized mechanical properties of the materials used by a series of geotechnical tests. Displacement field was quantified using PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry). The model is water-saturated to allow the deformation of wet clay and sand in one experiment comprising a sand package with a horizontal layer of clay above a predefined rigid basement fault. The thickness and rigidity of the clay layer are the parameters varied in this study. The model shows a range of structures that are related to competence contrast between sand and different clay types. Results show ductile shearing of soft clay with a transition to brittle fracturing of stiff clay accompanied by the formation of rotating clay blocks in the fault zone. Localized deformation is observed through time showing (i) the propagation of one active fault migrating laterally through the sediment package, and (ii) the formation of a stable prism between two or more active faults that gets progressively smaller with minor rotation of the hanging wall fault. Continuous clay smear is observed resulting from the lateral injection of clay as well as from a reworked mixture of sand and clay.     

A need for incentivizing field hydrology,especially in an era of open data: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

The sharing of data and collection of new data are both essential, but they are not inherently complementary. When data are openly available, researchers may be motivated to use those data rather than collect more because field work has costs and risks. The competitive advantage to those who do not put resources towards fieldwork may discourage field hydrology. Allocating efforts towards generating field data, which benefits hydrological sciences, is not necessarily best for individual hydrologists, especially in an era of open data. The objective of this work is to open a conversation on whether individuals’ best interests may contrast with the community’s desire for new observations. If the community wants new field observations, there is a need to consider the shifting balance of incentives and disincentives for pursuing field studies in hydrology.     

Investigation of flow-rainfall co-variation for catchments selected based on the two main sources of River Nile

The co-variation of rainfall and flow was assessed in four selected catchments of the River Nile which has two main sources including the White Nile (in the Equatorial region) and the Blue Nile (from the Ethiopian highlands). The selected catchments included Kyoga and Kagera (from the Equatorial region), as well as Blue Nile and Atbara (in Sudan and Ethiopia). In each catchment, the flow-rainfall co-variation was investigated at both seasonal and annual time scales. To explain aggregated variation at larger temporal scale while investigating the possible change in catchment behavior, which may interfere with the flow-rainfall relationship, rainfall-runoff modeling was done at daily time scale using data (falling within the period 1949–2003) from Kagera and Blue Nile i.e. the major catchment of each region where the River Nile emanates. Correlation analysis was conducted to assess how well the variation of flow and that of catchment-wide rainfall resonate. The co-occurrence of the changes in observed and simulated overland flow was examined using the quantile perturbation method (QPM). Trends in the model residuals were detected using the Mann–Kendal (MK) and cumulative rank difference (CRD) tests. The null hypothesis H ₀ (no correlation between rainfall and flow) was rejected at the significance level α of 5% for all the selected catchments. The temporal changes in terms of the QPM anomalies for both the observed and simulated flow were in a close agreement. The evidence to reject the H ₀ (no trend in the model residuals) was generally statistically insufficient at α = 5% for all the models and selected catchments considering both the MK and CRD tests. These results indicate that change in catchment behavior due to anthropogenic influence in the Nile basin over the selected time period was minimal. Thus, the overall rainfall-runoff generation processes of the catchments did not change in a significant way over the selected data period. The temporal flow variation could be attributed mainly to the rainfall variation.     

On the correlation between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration climate change signals for hydrological impact analyses

State-of-the-art hydrological climate impact assessment involves ensemble approaches to address uncertainties. For precipitation, a wide range of climate model runs is available. However, for particular meteorological variables used for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (ET_o), availability of climate model runs is limited. It is preferred that climate model runs are considered coupled when calculating changes in precipitation and ET_o amounts, in order to preserve the internal physical consistency. This results in constraints on the maximum ensemble size. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between climate change signals of precipitation and ET_o. It is found that, for two medium-sized catchments in Belgium, uncoupling climate model runs used for calculation of change signals of precipitation and ET_o amounts does not result in a significant bias for changes in extreme flow. With these results, future impact studies can be conducted with larger ensemble sizes, resulting in a more complete uncertainty estimation.     

Numerical Homogenization of Two-Phase Flow in Porous Media

Homogenization has proved its effectiveness as a method of upscaling for linear problems, as they occur in single-phase porous media flow for arbitrary heterogeneous rocks. Here we extend the classical homogenization approach to nonlinear problems by considering incompressible, immiscible two-phase porous media flow. The extensions have been based on the principle of preservation of form, stating that the mathematical form of the fine-scale equations should be preserved as much as possible on the coarse scale. This principle leads to the required extensions, while making the physics underlying homogenization transparent. The method is process-independent in a way that coarse-scale results obtained for a particular reservoir can be used in any simulation, irrespective of the scenario that is simulated. Homogenization is based on steady-state flow equations with periodic boundary conditions for the capillary pressure. The resulting equations are solved numerically by two complementary finite element methods. This makes it possible to assess a posteriori error bounds.     

Distribution of calcareous dinoflagellates from the Maastrichtian to early Miocene of DSDP Site 357 (Rio Grande Rise, western South Atlantic Ocean)

 The evolution of calcareous dinoflagellate communities has been investigated for the latest Cretaceous to earliest Neogene interval of the mid-latitude South Atlantic. In doing so, the response of calcareous dinoflagellates to Cenozoic climatic change has been addressed for the first time. Trends in species composition and distribution patterns of wall types indicate significant changes which correlate with major palaeoenvironmental modifications. A first major shift concerning the relative abundance of species and wall types occurred across the Cretaceous–Tertiary boundary. The associations remained stable during the entire Paleocene and Eocene. Only in the late Eocene did a dramatic decrease in temperature cause a slight diversification. A second major shift in the abundance patterns occurred across the Eocene–Oligocene boundary. The early Miocene warming is possibly reflected in the distinct increase in relative abundance of one species. The assemblages of calcareous dinoflagellates evidently react to major climatic changes during the Cenozoic. These poorly investigated organisms may thus provide an important contribution to the understanding of earth's palaeoclimatic evolution. Received: 9 November 1998 / Accepted: 4 April 1999