Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific using teleconnection patterns

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model for the seasonal prediction of the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) in the western North Pacific using the three teleconnection patterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian High Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the North Pacific Oscillation in the North Pacific, and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) near the Australia during the boreal spring (April–May). This statistical model is verified through the two analyses: (a) statistical method of cross validation and (b) differences between the high TCGF years and low TCGF years that is hindcasted by the statistical model. The high TCGF years are characterized by the following anomalous features: Three anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in the East Asian continent, pressure pattern like “north-high and south-low” in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (negative AAO phase) near the Australia were strengthened during the period from boreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened by anomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. In consequence, this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP but strengthened convection in the SWP.     

Seasonal Prediction Experiments of the Summer Droughts and Floods during the Early 1990′s in East Asia with Numerical Models

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Impact of ocean–wave coupling on typhoon-induced waves and surge levels around the Korean Peninsula: a case study of Typhoon Bolaven

Typhoon-induced waves and surges are important when predicting potential hazards near coastal regions. In this paper, we applied a coupled modeling system for ocean–wave interaction to examine prediction capabilities for typhoon-induced waves and surges around the Korean Peninsula. To identify how ocean–wave coupling impacts wave and surge simulations during typhoon conditions, a set of comparative experiments was performed during Typhoon Bolaven (2012): (1) a fully coupled ocean–wave model, (2) a one-way coupled ocean–wave model without surface current feedback and ocean-to-wave water levels, and (3) a stand-alone ocean model without considering wave-based sea surface roughness (SSR). When coupled with the ocean model, the surface current reduced significantly the wave height on the right-hand side of the advancing typhoon track and improved prediction accuracy along the southern coast of Korea. Compared with the observed surge levels, the simulated surge height yielded improved results for peak height magnitude and timing compared with the uncoupled model. For wave-to-surge feedback, we found that wave-induced SSR plays an important role by modulating wind stress in the surface layer. The modulated wind stress directly affected the surge height, which improved surge peak prediction during the typhoon.     

Analyzing sea level rise and tide characteristics change driven by coastal construction at Mokpo Coastal Zone in Korea

This study investigates a construction-induced sea level rise and tide characteristics change, using a regression analysis to separate the local construction effect such as sea-dike/seawalls and global warming from total sea level change. The study also makes it clear why and how the extreme high water level has risen just after constructions at Mokpo harbor in Korea. As a result of the regression analysis, it is found that the high water level rise for the period of 1960–2006 is ～60 cm, which is summation of four components: ～23 cm for Youngsan River sea-dike (1981), ～15 cm for Youngam seawall (1991), ～8 cm for Geumho seawall (1994), and ～14 cm for gradual rise (due mainly to global warming). Then, a numerical simulation at Mokpo coastal zone is performed to identify each component, and the results support the premise that the tidal amplification caused by constructions is due mainly to the extinguishment of the tidal choking effect at outer Mokpogu. The tidal flat effect makes the amplification greater at spring tide or extraordinary high tide, which would result in the increase of inundation risk at the Mokpo coastal zone. Frequency distribution of observed high water level data shows increasing trend for both maximum value of astronomical tide component (simulated high water level) and meteorological tide component (surge height) after the coastal constructions. A frequency analysis presents that the high water level for 50 year return period, which is often used for design in practice, is 474 cm before the construction, and while that is 553 cm after the construction. Furthermore, design height might steadily be elevated considering future global sea level rise.     

Assessment of change in design flood frequency under climate change using a multivariate downscaling model and a precipitation-runoff model

Precipitation and runoff are key elements in the hydrologic cycle because of their important roles in water supply, flood prevention, river restoration, and ecosystem management. Global climate change, widely accepted to be happening, is anticipated to have enormous consequences on future hydrologic patterns. Studies on the potential changes in global, regional, and local hydrologic patterns under global climate change scenarios have been an intense area of research in recent years. The present study contributes to this research topic through evaluation of design flood under climate change. The study utilizes a weather state-based, stochastic multivariate model as a conditional probability model for simulating the precipitation field. An important premise of this study is that large-scale climatic patterns serve as a major driver of persistent year-to-year changes in precipitation probabilities. Since uncertainty estimation in the study of climate change is needed to examine the reliability of the outcomes, this study also applies a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme to the widely used SAC-SMA (Sacramento soil moisture accounting) precipitation-runoff model. A case study is also performed with the Soyang Dam watershed in South Korea as the study basin. Finally, a comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is made.     

Monitoring of organic contaminants in sediments from the Korean coast: Spatial distribution and temporal trends (2001-2007)

Spatial and temporal trends of organic contaminants in sediments along the Korean coast were estimated through a nationwide environmental monitoring program from 2001 to 2007. The concentrations of organic contaminants in sediments along the Korean coast were relatively low or moderate compared with foreign studies. The mean detection frequencies of organic contaminants during the seven years were highest for PAHs and PCDD/Fs, followed by PCBs, DDTs, TBT and HCHs in decreasing order. Based on published sediment quality guidelines, the ecological risks of persistent organic pollutants in sediments along the Korean coast were low, despite exceedances of the ERL at 2-6 sites for DDTs, and the TEL at 9-18 sites for PCDD/Fs. Nonparametric tests to assess temporal trends revealed significant decreasing trends for PCBs and PCDD/Fs at four and three sites, respectively (p < 0.05). These results reflect the effects of regulations on the use of those contaminants.     

Five new species of lichomolgid copepods associated with ascidians from Korea,with proposal of two new genera (Crustacea,Copepoda, Lichomolgidae)

Five new species of the family Lichomolgidae associated with solitary ascidians are described from the east coast of Korea. Two new genera are proposed: Protomolgus n. gen. to incorpotate Protomolgus duplex n. sp. and P. singularis n. sp., and Dontimolgus n. gen. to incorporate Dontimolgus brevicaudatus n. sp. Protomolgus n. gen. characteristically has a four-segmented female maxilliped and a bipartite mandible. Dontimolgus n. gen. possesses a large, tooth-like process on the first maxillary segment and three spines on the third exopodal segment of leg 3. Other two new species described are Lichomolgus infirmus n. sp. and L. pectinatus n. sp.     

Dependence of Geomagnetic Storms on Their Associated Halo CME Parameters

We compare the geoeffective parameters of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We consider 50 front-side full-halo CMEs (FFH CMEs), which are from the list of Michalek, Gopalswamy, and Yashiro (Solar Phys. 246, 399, 2007), whose asymmetric-cone model parameters and earthward-direction parameter were available. For each CME we use its projected velocity [V _p], radial velocity [V _r], angle between cone axis and sky plane [γ] from the cone model, earthward-direction parameter [D], source longitude [L], and magnetic-field orientation [M] of its CME source region. We make a simple linear-regression analysis to find out the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index. The main results are as follows: i) The combined parameters [(V _r D)^1/2 and V _r γ] have higher correlation coefficients [cc] with the Dst index than the other parameters [V _p and V _r]: cc=0.76 for (V _r D)^1/2, cc=0.70 for V _r γ, cc=0.55 for V _r, and cc=0.17 for V _p. ii) Correlation coefficients between V _r γ and Dst index depend on L and M; cc=0.59 for 21 eastern events [E], cc=0.80 for 29 western events [W], cc=0.49 for 17 northward magnetic-field events [N], and cc=0.69 for 33 southward magnetic-field events [S]. iii) Super geomagnetic storms (Dst≤?200 nT) only appear in the western and southward magnetic-field events. The mean absolute Dst values of geomagnetic storms (Dst≤?50 nT) increase with an order of E+N, E+S, W+N, and W+S events; the mean absolute Dst value (169 nT) of W+S events is significantly larger than that (75 nT) of E+N events. Our results demonstrate that not only do the cone-model parameters together with the earthward-direction parameter improve the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index, but also the longitude and the magnetic-field orientation of a FFH CME source region play a significant role in predicting geomagnetic storms.     

A Study of Optimal Rock-Cutting Conditions for Hard Rock TBM Using the Discrete Element Method

The efficiency of TBM performance affected by the specific s/p (s: spacing and p: penetration) ratio of the disc cutter is a research issue in demand. This article presents a multi-indentation simulation using discrete element method (DEM) analysis to study the optimal rock-cutting phenomena in terms of the interaction of the s/p ratio with intact rock properties. The multi-indentation simulation attempts to represent a linear cutting machine (LCM) test, which is a full-scale test for evaluating the optimal rock-cutting condition and measuring required reaction forces based on the intact rock condition in general practice. A governing equation relating mechanical rock properties with geometric characteristics for the optimal rock-cutting condition is derived by the numerical simulation, and its performance is evaluated with the result of the laboratory LCM tests. The results of simulations and real LCM tests show that the effective rock-cutting condition corresponding to the minimum specific energy can be estimated by an optimized s/p ratio, which, in turn, is linearly proportional to the square of the material brittleness, B ², and cutter tip width, t (i.e., s/p?=?cB ² t, where c is coefficient). The limitation of the numerical simulation associated with the sample preparation is also discussed.     

An Overview of Existing Algorithms for Resolving the 180° Ambiguity in Vector Magnetic Fields: Quantitative Tests with Synthetic Data

We report here on the present state-of-the-art in algorithms used for resolving the 180° ambiguity in solar vector magnetic field measurements. With present observations and techniques, some assumption must be made about the solar magnetic field in order to resolve this ambiguity. Our focus is the application of numerous existing algorithms to test data for which the correct answer is known. In this context, we compare the algorithms quantitatively and seek to understand where each succeeds, where it fails, and why. We have considered five basic approaches: comparing the observed field to a reference field or direction, minimizing the vertical gradient of the magnetic pressure, minimizing the vertical current density, minimizing some approximation to the total current density, and minimizing some approximation to the field's divergence. Of the automated methods requiring no human intervention, those which minimize the square of the vertical current density in conjunction with an approximation for the vanishing divergence of the magnetic field show the most promise.