Assessment of design rainfall uncertainty for hydrologic engineering applications in Hong Kong

Hydrologic engineering designs and analyses often require the specification of design storm which involves rainfall amount, duration and hyetograph. In practice, the determination of design rainfall in hydrologic engineering applications involves the frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls of different durations and the establishment of rainfall hyetograph for the design event under consideration. Sampling errors exist in the estimation of rainfall depth (or intensity) quantiles from frequency analysis, which will be transmitted in the process of determining the design rainfall hyetograph. This paper presents a practical methodological framework based on the bootstrap resampling scheme to assess the uncertainty features associated with the magnitude of estimated rainfall depth/intensity quantiles and the corresponding design hyetographs. The procedure is implemented to quantify uncertainty of design rainfall hyetograph following the Stormwater Drainage Manual of Hong Kong involving the use of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) model. Of particular interesting is that the bootstrap resampling scheme implemented herein is modified to handle unequal record period of annual maximum rainfall data series of different durations and to account for their intrinsic correlations. According to the adopted rainfall IDF model, the design rainfall hyetograph is a function of the IDF model coefficients. Due to the correlation among rainfall quantiles of different durations, the IDF coefficients are found to be strongly related in a nonlinear fashion which should not be ignored in the establishment of the design hyetographs.     

Effect of varying normal stress on stability and dynamic motion of a spring-slider system with rate- and state-dependent friction

Incorporating rate and state friction laws, stability of linearly stable (i.e., with stiffness greater than the critical value) spring-slider systems subjected to triggering perturbations was analyzed under variable normal stress condition, and comparison was made between our results and that of fixed normal stress cases revealed in previous studies. For systems associated with the slip law, the critical magnitude of rate steps for triggering unstable slips are found to have a similar pattern to the fixed normal stress case, and the critical velocity steps scale with a/(b - a) when k = k_cr for both cases. The rate-step boundaries for the variable normal stress cases are revealed to be lower than the fixed normal stress case by 7 %–16 % for a relatively large α = 0.56 with (b - a)/a ranging from 0.25 to 1, indicating easier triggering under the variable normal stress condition with rate steps. The difference between fixed and variable normal stress cases decreases when the α value is smaller. In the same slip-law-type systems, critical displacements to trigger instability are revealed to be little affected by the variable normal stress condition. When k ≥ k_cr(V_*), a spring-slider system with the slowness law is much more stable than with the slip law, suggesting that the slowness law fits experimental data better when a single state variable is adopted. In stick-slip motions, the variable normal stress case has larger stress drops than the constant normal stress case. The variable normal stress has little effect on the range of slip velocity in systems associated with the slowness law, whereas systems associated with the slip law have a slowest slip velocity immensely smaller than the fixed normal stress case, by ~10 orders of magnitude.     

Crack Coalescence in Molded Gypsum and Carrara Marble: Part 2—Microscopic Observations and Interpretation

Experimental uniaxial compression loading tests were conducted on molded gypsum and Carrara marble prismatic specimens to study the cracking and coalescence processes between pre-existing artificial flaws. The study showed that material had an influence on the cracking and coalescence processes (see the companion paper in this issue). As reported in the companion paper, one of the pronounced features as observed in the high-speed video recordings was the development of macroscopic white patches prior to the development of observable cracks in marble, but not in gypsum. This paper (part 2) deals with the microscopic aspects of the study. Specifically, the scanning electron microscope (SEM) and the environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) imaging techniques were used to study the microscopic development of white patches and their evolution into macroscopic tensile cracks and shear cracks in marble, and the microscopic initiation of hair-line tensile cracks and their evolution into macroscopic tensile cracks in gypsum. The microscopic imaging study in marble showed that the white patches were associated with extensive microcracking zones (process zones), while the extent of process zone development in gypsum was limited. The comparison of the macroscopic and microscopic results indicates that the different extent of microcracking zone development, related to the material textural properties, is a key factor leading to different macroscopic cracking behavior in gypsum and marble.

Numerical investigation of rainfall-induced fines migration and its influences on slope stability

Rainfall-infiltration-induced fines migration within soil slopes may alter the local porosity and hydraulic properties of soils, and is known to be a possible cause of the failure of slopes. To investigate the intrinsic mechanisms, a mathematical formulation capable of capturing the main features of the coupled unsaturated seepage and fines migration process has been presented. Within the formulation, an unsaturated erodible soil is treated as a three-phase multi-species porous medium based on mixture theory; mass conservation equations with mass exchange terms together with the rate equations controlling fines erosion and deposition processes are formulated as the governing equations and are solved by the FEM method. The influences of both the fines detachment and deposition on the stability of slopes under rainfall infiltration have been investigated numerically. The results show that depending on whether the fines move out or get captured at pore constrictions, both desired and undesired consequences may arise out of the fines migration phenomenon. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to those slopes susceptible to internal erosion whose safety analysis cannot be predicted by traditional methods.     

太平洋西北地区面临大地震风险

欢迎来到俄勒冈州波特兰市——我的家乡——参加美国地震学会年会!这里有蓝天（当然是不下雨的时候）,有威拉米特河（Willamette）和哥伦比亚河（Columbia）,有众多的溪流湖泊、壮丽的火山峰（晴天时朝北方和东方看）,有绿树、绿树、     

Economic reforms and the New Master Plan of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: Implementation issues and policy recommendations

The economic reforms or `doi moi' introduced in 1986 have transformed Vietnam's planned economy to a more market-oriented one. Rise in international capital, market liberalisation and greater population mobility have contributed towards a greater concentration of squatters in the city centre, and extended metropolitan development in the fringes of Ho Chi Minh City. Rapid urbanisation and, to a lesser extent, industrialisation have converted large tracts of farmlands to urban use, and greater rural exodus. Such dramatic changes have drawn the city government's attention to face the new challenges. As a very important political and economic centre in the south, Ho Chi Minh City has prepared for itself a new Master Plan, approved in 1997, to provide a legitimate and institutional framework to guide its future spatial development. This paper introduces the background and explains the rationale behind the drafting of the Master Plan, and highlights the constraints that are expected in implementing it. The administrative framework in planning is also examined in terms of its advantages and disadvantages in a planning system with four levels: national, provincial, district and local. Land availability in the city centre, source of funding and technical expertise are all parts and parcels of the challenges in the process of modernising HCMC to accommodate the need of its residents and rapid global change. Ho Chi Minh City's strong relationships with its hinterlands have equally required the planners to look at the planning field using the whole national and regional scenarios. Policy recommendations aimed at improving the implementation capability are finally presented. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the hydrographic distribution in the source region of the Delaware coastal current

The buoyant discharge from Delaware Bay forms two separate branches of residual outflow near the bay mouth, one along each shore. Upon exiting the bay, the branch along the Delaware shore turns right to form the southward flowing Delaware coastal current along the inner continental shelf off the Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia coasts. CTD and thermosalinograph, data collected at the mouth of Delaware Bay over two semidiurnal tidal cycles are used to examine the hydrographic distribution at the source region of the Delaware coastal current. In this region the buoyant source water of the coastal current, is largely detached from the shoreline and confined to the top 15 m of the water column over much of the tidal cycles. The core of the coastal current's source water, as defined by the point of salinity minimum, is located over the deep channel well offshore of the Delaware coast. The separation between this buoyant water and the more saline waters right along the Delaware coast and that in the central part of the bay mouth are marked by regions of high horizontal salinity gradients. The horizontal salinity gradients around the inshore and offshore boundaries of the source water of the coastal current are intensified during the flood tide, and clearly defined fronts (with a change of 3‰ over a distance of 150 m) are present at the offshore boundary near the end of the flood tide. The structure of the mean flow and the distribution of the brackish coastal current on the inner continental shelf contribute to the persistence of stratification in the source region off the Delaware shore throughout the ebb and flood tides. In contrast, the ebb-induced stratification in the region off the New Jersey shore is quickly destroyed with the onset of the flood current.     

象山港潮波响应和变形研究 Ⅲ.潮滩位置和平流效应对M4分潮的作用

通过半封闭矩形理想海湾的潮波运动数值模拟,分析了潮滩及平流效应对M₄分潮的生成和增长的影响.结果说明潮滩的作用不但依赖本身的规模和湾内潮波非线性的强弱,而且与潮滩在湾内所处位置关系很大.在存在M₄分潮共振的海湾中,平流效应可以抑制共振对M₄分潮的放大作用.     

垦丁国家公园内南仁湖的地球化学

南仁湖区位于台湾省屏东县满州乡境内,是一个封闭且独立的盆地,土壤属于洪积层发良之红壤,是经过强烈淋洗后的风化产物。成分以粘土矿物为主,低价元素皆在风化过程中大量流失,呈强酸性反应(pH值为3.65—5.30)。淋洗出的土壤渗滤水pH值介於5.O左右,碱度几乎全在0.020 m mol(+)/L以下,没有提供大量碱度到湖水中,和一般沉积岩区土壤渗滤水不同。湖水中的叶绿素a含量大多数在10μg/L之上,属于富营养化的水域;碱度大部分在O.20 m mol(+)/L以下,属为对酸敏感到极敏感湖之列;磷含量已多在20μg/L以上,在分类上亦属于富营养阶段;氮和磷的比值相当低,因此氮成为水中浮游生物的主要生长限制元素;其他主要离子的来源受控于当地环境和雨水及海水飞沫的影响。为了解影响湖水化学组成的主要因素,作者收集南仁湖区的雨水、土壤渗滤水和湖水,以求了解其各别的离子含量及变化;同时还测量湖水流出量,并收集相关气象资料,企图计算出各种离子在集水区中的收支情况。经过实验及计算,估计雨水在1989年输入大约167×10~3mol(+)的离子,占年度总输入量的6％左右,其余则来自陆地;大约577×10~3mol(+)的主要离子从出水口流出南仁湖,约占总输入量的19％,其余的离子累积于湖盆中。显见陆源水的化学物质含量是影响南仁湖水质及化学组成的主要因素。水中有机质以33.7—52.9mg/cm~2·a的速率累积于南仁湖沉积物中,沉积物的总累积速率为581—911mg/cm~2·a。     

Pollutant Plume Dispersion in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Idealized Urban Roughness

The Gaussian model of plume dispersion is commonly used for pollutant concentration estimates. However, its major parameters, dispersion coefficients, barely account for terrain configuration and surface roughness. Large-scale roughness elements (e.g. buildings in urban areas) can substantially modify the ground features together with the pollutant transport in the atmospheric boundary layer over urban roughness (also known as the urban boundary layer, UBL). This study is thus conceived to investigate how urban roughness affects the flow structure and vertical dispersion coefficient in the UBL. Large-eddy simulation (LES) is carried out to examine the plume dispersion from a ground-level pollutant (area) source over idealized street canyons for cross flows in neutral stratification. A range of building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratios, covering the regimes of skimming flow, wake interference, and isolated roughness, is employed to control the surface roughness. Apart from the widely used aerodynamic resistance or roughness function, the friction factor is another suitable parameter that measures the drag imposed by urban roughness quantitatively. Previous results from laboratory experiments and mathematical modelling also support the aforementioned approach for both two- and three-dimensional roughness elements. Comparing the UBL plume behaviour, the LES results show that the pollutant dispersion strongly depends on the friction factor. Empirical studies reveal that the vertical dispersion coefficient increases with increasing friction factor in the skimming flow regime (lower resistance) but is more uniform in the regimes of wake interference and isolated roughness (higher resistance). Hence, it is proposed that the friction factor and flow regimes could be adopted concurrently for pollutant concentration estimate in the UBL over urban street canyons of different roughness.