Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms

This article identifies and analyzes several points of similarity in the structure and context of forecasting in the social and natural sciences. These include: the limits of identities or universal laws as a basis for forecasts; the corresponding need for simplifying parametric representations of one or more of the variables that enter into identities; various sources of uncertainty about parameterizations; intrinsic limitations on predictability or forecasting accuracy in large-scale systems; the need for sensitivity analyses of model responses to changes in exogenous variables and/or parametric structures; problems of model linkage; and the social (organizational and political) context of forecasts. Suggestions for future lines of inquiry are made in each case. Several of these are such that they can benefit from a sharing of experience and expertise across disciplinary lines.The research reported herein was supported in part by the IC² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, and in part by National Science Foundation Grant Number SES-8411702. However, the opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring organizations. We appreciate the advice and comments of Jesse H. Ausubel, Robert S. Chen, Judith Jacobsen, and Richard C. Rockwell on earlier versions of this paper.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Meeresoptische Messungen während schwerer Stürme auf der Forschungsplattform “Nordsee” vom 14. November bis zum 8. Dezember 1980

Ocean Dynamics - Meeresoptische Messungen auf der Forschungsplattform “Nordsee” haben gezeigt, daß dort während schwerer Stürme, hauptsächlich durch den Einfluß...     

Transmission electron microscopic study of antiphase domains in CaAl2Ge2O8-Feldspar

Transmission electron microscopic study of synthetic CaAl₂Ge₂O₈-feldspar revealed two types of antiphase domains: type “b”-antiphase domains with the displacement vector 1/2 [110] and type “c”-antiphase domains with the displacement vector 1/2 [111]. The “b”-domains were on the order of 0.1 μm in size, while the “c”-domains displayed wall to wall distances mostly between 0.1 and 1 μm. The formation of the two types of antiphase domains is due to reductions in translational symmetry associated with the phase transitions \(C\bar 1 \to I\bar 1 \to P\bar 1\) . The antiphase domain textures of CaAl₂Ge₂O₈-feldspar are very similar to the textures found in natural and synthetic anorthite, CaAl₂Si₂O₈.     

Correlation of the Quaternary terrace sequence in the Lower Rhine valley and northern Alpine foothills of central Europe

Thirteen glacial terraces are known from the western part of the northern Alpine foothills between the Lech and Iller Rivers. In the Lower Rhine region of West Germany, a similar number of terraces are capped by interglacial floodloams and soils. Whereas the environment during individual interglaciations did not differ substantially, the glaciations were progressively more severe. The Main Terrace system of the Rhine may be an exception. The duration of the Quaternary, starting at the base of Praetiglian, is estimated at approximately 2 million yr by paleomagnetic dating. The major cold-warm climatic cycles of the earliest Pleistocene lasted approximately 100,000 yr, the same as those of the Brunhes Chron. The intervening Main Terrace system has not yet been climatically subdivided. Correlation with the Netherlands is possible because of an abundance of paleobotanic and paleomagnetic evidence. In the Alpine foothills, stratigraphically useful indicators of warm climates are missing, but analogies in terrace development permit comparison with the Lower Rhine and Danube. The terrace sequence in the Alpine foothills is incomplete, as are those along most of the other rivers in Europe. Some of the older terraces may have been eroded.     

Orientation of the stress field from breakouts in a crystalline well in a seismic active area

The orientation of the regional stress field in the Swabian Jura was determined from borehole breakouts caused by stress accumulation at the borehole wall. The analysis is based on caliper data recorded in the Urach 3 geothermal well within an intervall of about 1450 m. The azimuths of the breakouts are consistent with depth and indicate a stress direction which is in good agreement with the interpretation of fault plane solutions of nearby earthquakes.