Random encounters in probabilistic time geography

Probabilistic time geography considers the encounter of moving agents to be random; therefore, a quantitative time geography analysis must consider the actual encounter probability. The existing algorithm of encounter probability is oriented over a discrete space and is sensitive to the unit definition of a virtual grid; thus, it is not suitable for continuous space. For this reason, a new method is presented in this paper for the encounter of two moving agents in continuous space. When the encounters are less than a specified distance threshold apart, an encounter event occurs based on the probability of the product, which is calculated by their respective probability density functions over their respective potential location areas. This probability provides a quantitative basis for predicting the likelihood of two agents meeting, as well as the location of this meeting point. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is verified by an experiment, which uses tracking data to calculate the encounter probabilities of three zebras and analyse the distribution characteristics of these probabilities over time and space.     

Relation of streams, lakes, and wetlands to groundwater flow systems

 Surface-water bodies are integral parts of groundwater flow systems. Groundwater interacts with surface water in nearly all landscapes, ranging from small streams, lakes, and wetlands in headwater areas to major river valleys and seacoasts. Although it generally is assumed that topographically high areas are groundwater recharge areas and topographically low areas are groundwater discharge areas, this is true primarily for regional flow systems. The superposition of local flow systems associated with surface-water bodies on this regional framework results in complex interactions between groundwater and surface water in all landscapes, regardless of regional topographic position. Hydrologic processes associated with the surface-water bodies themselves, such as seasonally high surface-water levels and evaporation and transpiration of groundwater from around the perimeter of surface-water bodies, are a major cause of the complex and seasonally dynamic groundwater flow fields associated with surface water. These processes have been documented at research sites in glacial, dune, coastal, mantled karst, and riverine terrains. Received, April 1998 · Revised, July 1998, August 1998 · Accepted, September 1998     

Decadal evolution of tidal flats and channels in the Outer Weser estuary,Germany

This study focuses on the medium scale morphodynamics of the tidal flat and channel system Fedderwarder Priel, located in the Outer Weser estuary (Wadden Sea, Germany). Tidal channels and adjacent flats are highly dynamic systems whose morphologic evolution are driven by tidal, wind, and wave forcings. These coastal environments are an important ecosystem and react to changes in hydrodynamic conditions in various spatial and temporal scales. Based on annual medium-resolution digital elevation models from 1998 to 2016, we describe changes in the surface area over depth with hypsometries and use vertical dynamic trends in order to analyze and visualize the morphologic evolution of the Fedderwarder Priel and adjacent tidal channels. It is shown that several intertidal flats rise in the order of 1.3 to 5.6 cm/year. The findings indicate that the Outer Weser estuary was not in an equilibrium state for the investigated period, and tidal flats accreted with a rate exceeding mean sea level rise.     

Frictional Properties and Microstructure of Calcite-Rich Fault Gouges Sheared at Sub-Seismic Sliding Velocities

We report an experimental and microstructural study of the frictional properties of simulated fault gouges prepared from natural limestone (96 % CaCO₃) and pure calcite. Our experiments consisted of direct shear tests performed, under dry and wet conditions, at an effective normal stress of 50 MPa, at 18–150 °C and sliding velocities of 0.1–10 μm/s. Wet experiments used a pore water pressure of 10 MPa. Wet gouges typically showed a lower steady-state frictional strength (μ = 0.6) than dry gouges (μ = 0.7–0.8), particularly in the case of the pure calcite samples. All runs showed a transition from stable velocity strengthening to (potentially) unstable velocity weakening slip above 80–100 °C. All recovered samples showed patchy, mirror-like surfaces marking boundary shear planes. Optical study of sections cut normal to the shear plane and parallel to the shear direction showed both boundary and inclined shear bands, characterized by extreme grain comminution and a crystallographic preferred orientation. Cross-sections of boundary shears, cut normal to the shear direction using focused ion beam—SEM, from pure calcite gouges sheared at 18 and 150 °C, revealed dense arrays of rounded, ~0.3 μm-sized particles in the shear band core. Transmission electron microscopy showed that these particles consist of 5–20 nm sized calcite nanocrystals. All samples showed evidence for cataclasis and crystal plasticity. Comparing our results with previous models for gouge friction, we suggest that frictional behaviour was controlled by competition between crystal plastic and granular flow processes active in the shear bands, with water facilitating pressure solution, subcritical cracking and intergranular lubrication. Our data have important implications for the depth of the seismogenic zone in tectonically active limestone terrains. Contrary to recent claims, our data also demonstrate that nanocrystalline mirror-like slip surfaces in calcite(-rich) faults are not necessarily indicative of seismic slip rates.     

Effect of selection and sequencing of representative wave conditions on process-based predictions of equilibrium embayed beach morphology

In order to decrease the simulation time of morphodynamic models, often-complex wave climates are reduced to a few representative wave conditions (RWC). When applied to embayed beaches, a test of whether a reduced wave climate is representative or not is to see whether it can recreate the observed equilibrium (long-term averaged) bathymetry of the bay. In this study, the wave climate experienced at Milagro Beach, Tarragona, Spain was discretized into ‘average’ and ‘extreme’ RWCs. Process-based morphodynamic simulations were sequenced and merged based on ‘persistent’ and ‘transient’ forcing conditions, the results of which were used to estimate the equilibrium bathymetry of the bay. Results show that the effect of extreme wave events appeared to have less influence on the equilibrium of the bay compared to average conditions of longer overall duration. Additionally, the persistent seasonal variation of the wave climate produces pronounced beach rotation and tends to accumulate sediment at the extremities of the beach, rather than in the central sections. It is, therefore, important to account for directional variability and persistence in the selection and sequencing of representative wave conditions as is it essential for accurately balancing the effects beach rotation events.     

Directed movements in probabilistic time geography

This article studies probabilistic time geography for space–time prisms, that is, for situations where observers know the location of an agent at one time and then again at another time. In the intervening period, the agent would have moved freely, according to its time budget. The article demonstrates that the probability of finding the agent somewhere in the space–time prism is not equally distributed, so any attempt of a quantitative time geographic analysis must consider the actual probability distribution. This article develops, implements, and demonstrates this distribution. A preceding article introduced probabilistic time geography for space–time cones. With cones and prisms, the elementary space–time volumes of time geography are provided.     

Influence of compound bedforms on hydraulic roughness in a tidal environment

The effect exerted by the seabed morphology on the flow is commonly expressed by the hydraulic roughness, a fundamental parameter in the understanding and simulation of hydro- and sediment dynamics in coastal areas. This study quantifies the hydraulic roughness of large compound bedforms throughout a tidal cycle and investigates its relationship to averaged bedform dimensions. Consecutive measurements with an acoustic Doppler current profiler and a multibeam echosounder were carried out in the Jade tidal channel (North Sea, Germany) along large compound bedforms comprising ebb-oriented primary bedforms with superimposed smaller secondary bedforms. Spatially averaged velocity profiles produced log-linear relationships which were used to calculate roughness lengths. During the flood phase, the velocity profiles were best described by a single log-linear fit related to the roughness created by the secondary bedforms. During the ebb phase, the velocity profiles were segmented, showing the existence of at least two boundary layers: a lower one scaling with the superimposed secondary bedforms and an upper one scaling with the ebb-oriented primary bedforms. The drag induced by the primary bedform during the ebb phase is suggested to be related to flow expansion, separation, and recirculation on the downstream side of the bedform. Three existing formulas were tested to predict roughness lengths from the local bedform dimensions. All three predicted the right order of magnitude for the average roughness length but failed to predict its variation over the tidal cycle.     

Seismic hazard maps for the U.K.

Past studies of seismic hazard in the U.K. that have used modern probabilistic methods of hazard assessment have been site-specific studies, mostly in connection with nuclear installations. There has been a need for general-purpose maps of seismic hazard to show relative variation of exposure within the U.K. and to give some guidance on absolute values. Such maps have now been produced, incorporating, for the first time, the wealth of new information on historical earthquakes in Britain that has been gathered over the last 15 years. The hazard calculations were undertaken using a new computer code based on the USGS program SEISRISK III, but incorporating a logic tree approach to model variation in the input parameters (e.g. focal depth) or uncertainty in the formulation of the model (e.g. attenuation parameters). An innovative approach was taken to the formulation of seismic source zones, in which two overlapping models were employed. The first of these uses relatively broad source zones based loosely on an interpretation of seismicity and tectonics, while the second uses numerous small zones that reflect the locations of past significant earthquakes. This double approach (using the logic tree methodology) has the merit of both considering the general trend of earthquake activity as well as focusing in on known danger spots. The results show that the areas of highest hazard are western Scotland, north-western England and Wales, where the intensity with 90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years is 6 EMS.