When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Concentrations,physico-chemical states and mean residence times of 210Pb and 210Po in marine and estuarine waters

The concentrations and physico-chemical states of ²¹⁰Pb have been measured in Bikini Atoll and Washington State coastal waters, and ²¹⁰Po in Washington coastal waters. Lead-210 concentrations of 113–133 dpm · m^?3 were found in surface water collections near Bikini Atoll and 29–153 dpm · m^?3 in Bikini Lagoon. The concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb in near Bikini and in Washington State waters increased with depth in the upper 150m at a rate of 0.35–0.45dpm·m^?3 · m^?1. In the North Equatorial Current waters near Bikini Atoll ²¹⁰Pb was found associated predominantly with the soluble (colloidal) fraction, but in Washington coastal waters ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po were found associated with the paniculate (> 0.3 μm) fraction. The mean residence times of ²¹⁰Pb, calculated from the atmospheric input to marine waters from precipitation and the concentrations measured in surface water, were consistent with the physico-chemical states of ²¹⁰Pb found in samples collected in deep ocean and coastal waters. Approximate values of the mean residence times were calculated, for the upper 50 m, to be as follows: 58 days in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, 128 days at the 5-mile (8 km) station off Cape Flattery (Washington), 163 days at the 12-mile (19 km) station off Cape Flattery, and 2.6 yr near Bikini Atoll. It appears that ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po can be used to trace particle removal rates in the upper layers of marine waters.     

The impact of doubled CO2 on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies

The Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) stationary eddy response of a general circulation model (GCM) to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ is simulated with a linear steady state model as a response to anomalies in diabatic heating (latent, sensible and radiative), mountain and transient eddy effects. For this analysis the doubled CO₂ experiment performed by Wilson and Mitchell (1987) is used. The linear simulations of the control and perturbation climate capture most of the important features of the GCMs stationary eddies. The simulation of the anomalous stationary eddy pattern in the Northern Hemisphere captures only some of the important features of the GCMs anomalies. The climate anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere are poorly simulated. In the Northern Hemisphere the climate anomalies are dominated by the effect of transient eddies and mountains. In low latitudes also the contribution of latent heating is important. The contributions of sensible and radiative heating are small.     

Updates to the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Meteoroid Stream Model simulates particle ejection and subsequent evolution from comets in order to provide meteor shower forecasts to spacecraft operators for hazard mitigation and planning purposes. The model, previously detailed in Moser and Cooke (Earth Moon Planets 95, 141 (2004)), has recently been updated; the changes include the implementation of the RADAU integrator, an improved planetary treatment, and the inclusion of general relativistic effects in the force function. The results of these updates are investigated with respect to various meteoroid streams and the outcome presented.     

ISA-Hypoplasticity accounting for cyclic mobility effects for liquefaction analysis

Acta Geotechnica - The hypoplastic model for sands proposed by Wolffersdorff (Mech Cohes Frict Mater 1: 251–271, 1996) combined with the intergranular strain anisotropy by Fuentes and...     

Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.     

Particle fluxes in San Pedro Basin, California: A four-year record of sedimentation and physical forcing

Moored sediment traps were deployed from January 2004 through December 2007 at depths of 550 and 800 m in San Pedro Basin (SPB), CA (33°33.0′N, 118°26.5′W). Additionally, floating sediment traps were deployed at 100 and 200 m for periods of 12-24 h during spring 2005, fall 2007, and spring 2008. Average annual fluxes of mass, particulate organic carbon (POC), ??¹³C_org, particulate organic nitrogen (PON), ??¹⁵N-PON, biogenic silica (bSiO₂), calcium carbonate (CaCO₃), and detrital material (non-biogenic) were coupled with climate records and used to examine sedimentation patterns, vertical flux variability, and organic matter sources to this coastal region. Annual average flux values were determined by binning data by month and averaging the monthly averages. The average annual fluxes to 550 m were 516±42 mg/m² d for mass (sdom of the monthly averages, n=117), 3.18±0.26 mmol C/m² d for POC (n=111), 0.70±0.05 mmol/m² d for CaCO₃ (n=110), 1.31±0.21 mmol/m² d for bSiO₂ (n=115), and 0.35±0.03 mmol/m² d for PON (n=111). Fluxes to 800 and to 550 m were similar, within 10%. Annual average values of ??¹³C_org at 550 m were −21.8±0.2‰ (n=108), and ??¹⁵N averages were 8.9±0.2‰ (n=95). The timing of both high and low flux particle collection was synchronous between the two traps. Given the frequency of trap cup rotation (4-11 days), this argues for particle settling rates ≥83 m/d for both high and low flux periods. The moored traps were deployed over one of the wettest (2004-2005, 74.6 cm rainfall) and driest (2006-2007, 6.6 cm) rain years on record. There was poor correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient, 95% confidence interval) of detrital mass flux with: C_org/N ratio (r=0.10, p=0.16); ??¹⁵N (r=−0.19, p=0.02); and rainfall (r=0.5, p=0.43), suggesting that runoff does not immediately cause increases in particle fluxes 15 km offshore. ??¹³C_org values suggest that most POC falling to the basin floor is marine derived. Coherence between satellite-derived chlorophyll a records from the trap location (±9 km² resolution) and SST data indicates that productivity and export occurs within a few days of upwelling and both of these parameters are reasonable predictors of POC export, with a time lag of a few days to 2 weeks (with no time lag—SeaWiFS chlorophyll a and POC flux, r=0.25, p=0.0014; chlorophyll a and bSiO₂ flux, r=0.28, p=0.0002).     

Heave compensation and formation strength evaluation from downhole acceleration measurements while coring

In order to evaluate the efficiency of heave compensation in the Ocean Drilling Program, we developed a device measuring the acceleration of the core barrels. First results show that heave compensation limits bit motion to 10% of the surface heave. We also use the acceleration data to characterize the formation. On rotary corers, acceleration amplitudes decrease with increasing hardness of the formation. Comparison with geophysical logs shows that this relationship can resolve cm-scale features. On piston corers, the maximum acceleration is characteristic of the sediment shear strength. Easy and fast to deploy, this tool allows to characterize formations before any sample analysis.     

Mussels document loss of bioavailable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and the return to baseline conditions for oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were measured in mussels (Mytilus trossulus) collected between 1990 and 2002 from 11 sites on the shores of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, that were heavily oiled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS). This study, utilizing the methods of the NOAA Status and Trends Mussel Watch Program, found that concentrations of PAH released from spill remnants have decreased dramatically with time and by 2002 were at or near the range of total PAH (TPAH) of 3-355 ng/g dry weight obtained for mussels from unoiled reference sites in PWS. Time-series TPAH data indicate a mean TPAH half-life in mussel tissues of 2.4 years with a range from 1.4 to 5.3, yielding an annual mean loss of bioaccumulated TPAH of 25%. The petroleum-derived TPAH fraction in mussel tissues has decreased with time, reflecting the decreasing release of EVOS residues in shoreline sediments. These results show that PAH from EVOS residues that remain buried in shoreline sediments after the early 1990s are in a form and at locations that have a low accessibility to mussels living in the intertidal zone.     

Resource decline and adaptation through time: Fishers in San Miguel Bay, Philippines, 1980–1993

This article examines social conditions in a bay experiencing population growth, gear conflict, overfishing, and general resource decline. Sample surveys of fishing households carried out in 1980 and 1993 in nine villages of San Miguel Bay reveal patterns of continuity and change. The key continuity is sustained overall population growth in fishing villages. Among the key forms of change are those which demonstrate a degree of adaptation to resource decline: decreased participation in fishing; greater reliance of fishing households on nonfishing income; increased dependence on remittances of nonhousehold children; increased participation of women in nonhousehold labor; and dramatic growth in the number of fishing organizations involved in resource management. The findings suggest that resource management policies should be patterned after spontaneous adaptations to resource decline.