Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

Seasonal distribution of sulfur fractions in Louisiana salt marsh soils

The profile distributions of specific sulfur forms were examined at a site in a Louisiana salt marsh over a 1-yr period. Soil samples were fractionated into acid-volatile sulfides, HCl-soluble sulfur, elemental sulfur, pyrite sulfur, ester-sulfate sulfur, carbon-bonded sulfur, and total sulfur. Inorganic sulfur constituted 16% to 36% of total sulfur, with pyrite sulfur representing <2%. Pyrite sulfur content in marsh soil was relatively high in winter. Pyrite sulfur and elemental sulfur together accounted for 4% to 24% of the inorganic sulfur fraction. Between 74% and 95% of inorganic sulfur was present as the HCl-soluble sulfur form. A significant negative correlation between acid-volatile sulfides and elemental sulfur observed in summer suggested the transformation of fulfides to elemental sulfur. Organic sulfur, in the forms of ester-sulfate sulfur and carbon-bonded sulfur, predominated in all sampling periods, comprising 64% to 84% of total sulfur. The conversion of ester-sulfate sulfur into carbon-bonded sulfur was more likely to occur in winter than in other seasons. Carbon-bonded sulfur accounted for 53% to 89% of the organic sulfur. Organic sulfur was the major contributor to the variation of total sulfur in all seasons studied. Total sulfur concentration showed a statistically significant increase with depth.     

Scientific challenges and instrumentation for the International Meridian Circle Program

Earth's ecosystems and human activities are threatened by a broad spectrum of hazards of major importance for the safety of ground infrastructures,space systems...     

Precessional forcing of tropical vegetation carbon storage

Since the Mid Pleistocene Revolution, which occurred about one million years ago, global temperatures have fluctuated with a quasi‐periodicity of ca. 100 ka. The pattern of past change in the extent of woodlands, and therefore by inference vegetation carbon storage, has been demonstrated to have a strong positive link with this global temperature change at high and mid latitudes. However, understanding of climate systems and ecosystem function indicates that the pattern of woodland change at low latitudes may follow a fundamentally different pattern. We present output from the intermediate complexity model GENIE‐1, comprising a single transient simulation over the last 800 ka and a 174‐member ensemble of 130 ka transient simulations over the last glacial cycle. These simulations suggest that while vegetation carbon storage in mid–high northern latitudes robustly follows the characteristic ca. 100 ka cycle, this signal is not a robust feature of tropical vegetation, which is subject to stronger direct forcing by the precessional (21 ka) orbital cycle (albeit with a highly uncertain response). We conclude that the correlation of palaeoenvironmental records from low latitudes with global temperature change must be done with caution. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterization of dissolved organic matter across the Subtropical Convergence off the South Island,New Zealand

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) was investigated along a gradient across the Subtropical Convergence (STC) off the South Island, New Zealand. Ultrahigh resolution electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS), excitation emission matrix fluorescence (EEM) spectroscopy, and molecular lignin analysis techniques were used to study this DOM. The analysis revealed a group of compounds found only in the coastal DOM samples, which were also characterized by an elevated terrestrial DOM fluorescence pattern and elevated lignin content if compared to the offshore samples. This group exhibited a high degree of carbon unsaturation, as evident from high double bond equivalence minus oxygen values (DBE-O > 9) and maximum fluorescence intensity. Sulfur-containing molecular formulae for summer DOM samples were much more abundant across the entire transect of the STC compared to winter and exhibited distinctly different hydrogen:carbon and oxygen:carbon elemental ratios, suggesting a possible correlation between biological activity and sulfur compounds. The molecular formulae common to all STC samples were compared with those calculated for DOM extracted from freshwater collected from a stream discharging into Doubtful Sound (West Coast, New Zealand). ESI-FT-ICR-MS measurements undertaken in negative electrospray ionization (ESI?) mode indicated that 30% of the molecular formulae were present in both types of DOM, while in positive ESI mode (ESI+) over 90% of the formulae were present in all samples. Hence, a significant portion of the molecular formulae assigned to the solid-phase extractable DOM pool (SPE-DOM) appear to be identical in oceanic and freshwater samples.     

Using a Thermal Proxy to Examine Sediment–Water Exchange in Mid-Continental Shelf Sandy Sediments

Fluid exchange across the sediment–water interface in a sandy open continental shelf setting was studied using heat as a tracer. Summertime tidal oscillation of cross-shelf thermal fronts on the South Atlantic Bight provided a sufficient signal at the sediment–water interface to trace the advective and conductive transport of heat into and out of the seabed, indicating rapid flushing of ocean water through the upper 10–40 cm of the sandy seafloor. A newly developed transport model was applied to the in situ temperature data set to estimate the extent to which heat was transported by advection rather than conduction. Heat transported by shallow 3-D porewater flow processes was accounted for in the model by using a dispersion term, the depth and intensity of which reflected the depth and intensity of shallow flushing. Similar to the results of past studies in shallower and more energetic nearshore settings, transport of heat was greater when higher near-bed velocities and shear stresses occurred over a rippled bed. However, boundary layer processes by themselves were insufficient to promote non-conductive heat transport. Advective heat transport only occurred when both larger boundary layer stresses and thermal instabilities within the porespace were present. The latter process is dependent on shelf-scale heating and cooling of bottom water associated with upwelling events that are not coupled to local-scale boundary layer processes.