Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。     

Study on seismic numerical model on the Chinese mainland and its vicinity

IntroductionSeismicprocessisextremelycomplicatedjustashasbeenprovedbytheeallhquakepredictionpractice.Thecomplexityofseismicprocessmainlydisplaystheinhomogeneityofseismicspace-timedistribution.Therearealotoffactorscausingthecomplexity,includingthemediumofseismicsource,themechanicalprocessofseismicsource,mutualeffectofgroupseismicactivity,andsoon.Studyontheseismicactivitylawstillremainsinalowlevel,especiallyintheaspectofseismicoccurrenceprocess.Manyscholarstrytostudytheseismicactivebehavioringr…     

Introduction of structural aseismic research in China in recent four years

Introduction Greeting the coming of the 21st century, Professor HU Yu-xian and other Chinese scholars briefed the trend of earthquake engineering in China and aboard (HU, 1999; HU, ZHOU, 1999). The experiences and lessons learning from the destructive earthquakes in China and abroad in re-cent years, the damage action of the large velocity impulse in ground motion in near field in seis-mic design, numerous earthquake examples show that there are many weaknesses in aspects of earthquake p…     

大姚地热动态特征分析

通过大姚高精度水温观测井水地质、井孔条件的分析，震例观测资料、实验观测数据的处理，以及井水水质分析结果，表明大姚水温周期性变化的突出位置是井深75m左右，根本原因是该地层石膏脉稳定释热，含水层热水与井内冷水混合过程中，在通道内形成钙盐类沉淀物（如CaSO4CaCO3），堵塞对流通道，含水层内外压差突破被阻塞通道，热水反复侵入井内，便形成水温周期性变化。地震的孕育、发生和调整过程，由于应力场作用，产生附加地热场，水温基值发生变化，周期畸变或消失，这种附加地热动态是可以恢复的。所以认为大姚地热动态是井区特殊地层地热信息的反映。     

Three-dimensional thermal structure of the Chinese continental crust and upper mantle

We invert S-wave velocities for the 3D upper-mantle temperatures, in which the position with a temperature crossing the 1300℃ adiabat is corresponding to the top of the seismic low velocity zone. The temperatures down to the depth of 80 km are then calculated by solving steady-state thermal conduction equation with the constraints of the inverted upper-mantle temperatures and the surface temperatures, and then surface heat flows are calculated from the crustal temperatures. The misfit between the calculated and observed surface heat flow is smaller than 20% for most regions. The result shows that, at a depth of 25 km, the crustal temperature of eastern China (500―600℃) is higher than that of western China (<500℃). At a depth of 100 km, temperatures beneath eastern and southeastern China are higher than the adiabatic temperature of 1300℃, while that beneath west China is lower. The Tarim craton and the Sichuan basin show generally low temperature. At a depth of 150 km, temperatures beneath south China, eastern Yangtze craton, North China craton and around the Qiangtang terrane are higher than the adiabatic temperature of 1300℃, but is the lowest beneath the Sichuan basin and the regions near the Indian-Eurasian collision zone. At a depth of 200 km, very low temperature occurs beneath the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the south to the Tarim craton.     

河西经济带建设在大西北开发中的地位与作用

本文论述了建设河西经济带对开发大西北，维护社会稳定和国家统一，缩小东西部差异，减轻人口压力及发展边境贸易等方面的重大意义．     

德州气候变化与建筑物防腐

利用德州11县市1951～2005年温度、降水资料,计算气候干燥度,1981～2005年与1951～1980年相比全市干燥度由1.45增大到1.64,已由原来的半湿润气候变化为半干旱气候。各县市降水量呈减少趋势,平均每10年减少19.64mm;气温呈上升趋势,平均每10年升高0.11℃,冬季升高0.30℃,冬季增温显著,北部县市已由原来的冰冻区变化为微冻区,全市均为微冻区。由于气候条件变化,相应场地环境类别与腐蚀介质指标的调整系数标准应作调整改变,场地环境类别由Ⅱ类转变为Ⅰ类,腐蚀介质指标的调整系数均取0.9。     

Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s?

Improving the understanding of cropland change and its driving factors is a current focus for policy decision-makers in China. The datasets of cropland and cropland changes from the 1970s to the 2000s were used to explore whether climate change has produced spatio-temporal changes to cropland in northern China since the 1970s. Two representative indicators of heat and water resources, which are important determinants of crop growth and productivity, were considered to track climate change, including active accumulated temperatures ≥10 °C (AAT10) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our results showed that rapid cropland change has occurred in northern China since the 1970s, and the area of cropland reclamation (10.23 million ha) was much greater than that of abandoned cropland (2.94 million ha). In the 2000s, the area of cropland with AAT10 higher than 3,000 °C·d increased, while the area of cropland with an SPEI greater than 0.25 decreased compared to the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It appears that climate warming has provided thermal conditions that have aided rapid cropland reclamation in northern China since the 1970s, and drier climatic conditions did not become a limiting factor for cropland reclamation, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s. Approximately 70 % of cropland reclamation areas were located in warmer but drier regions from the 1990s to the 2000s, and approximately 40 % of cropland abandonment occurred in warmer and wetter conditions that were suitable for agriculture during the periods from the 1970s to the 1980s and the 1990s to the 2000s. Our results suggest that climate change can be considered a driving factor of cropland change in the past several decades in northern China, in addition to socioeconomic factors.