ON THE VARIETY AND COMPLEXITY OF THE SHORT-TERM AND URGENT PRECURSORS OF THE TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE

The Tangshan earthquake(M=7.8)which occurred on July 28, 1976 is the greatest event among the modern catastrophes in China. It occurred in a region that was the most densely networked with seismic stations, a region that had the longest history in seismological work and had received     

中国地震历史资料的信息开发与利用

本文对全国历史地震资料的有用信息作了进一步的开发和利用，按统一方法处理了大量有感以上地震的文字记载，确字每个独立地震的时间与地点；分区求得地震的有感区长半径与震级的关系式；确定了历史有感地震的最低震级为４；取得了８０００余次有感地震垢基本参数；用等震线测定了巨大地震的参数；将有感强震目录统编成全国与几个大区Ｍ≥４．０地震目录，按《地震学地震预报实用程序系统》（ＥＰＳＥＩＳ）的格式要求建库；同时编制     

关于发展我国地震科技信息工作的思考

地震科技信息的积累和应用是我国地震科学事业发展的基础，我国的地震信息工作在地震预报的探索和研究中以及地震工程应用中，均发挥了重要的作用，为进一步认识地震科技信息的重要性，发展这一事业，本文就地震科学研究与地震科技信息的内在联系，地震科技信息的运行机制及地震科技信息工作的发展提出了一些新的观点。     

Using Traditional Methods and Indigenous Technologies for Coping With Climate Variability

In agrometeorology and management of meteorology related natural resources, many traditional methods and indigenous technologies are still in use or being revived for managing low external inputs sustainable agriculture (LEISA) under conditions of climate variability. This paper starts with the introduction of an “end-to-end” climate information build up and transfer system in agrometeorology, in which the use of such methods and technologies must be seen to operate. It then reviews the options that LEISA farmers have in risk management of agrometeorological and agroclimatological calamities. This is based on the role that the pertinent meteorological/climatological parameters and phenomena play as limiting factors in agricultural production and the expectations on their variability. Subsequently, local case studies are given as examples of preparedness strategies to cope with i). variable water/moisture flows, including mechanical impacts of rain and/or hail, ii). variable temperature and heat flows, including fires, and iii). fitting cropping periods to the varying seasons, everywhere including related phenomena as appropriate. The paper ends with a series of important additional considerations without which the indicated strategies cannot be successful on a larger scale and in the long run.     

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.     

苏北榴辉岩的岩石性质及其金红石的嵌布特征

苏北榴辉岩主要产于由角闪岩相变质的长英质片麻岩，根据其赋存部位划分为3类：Ⅰ类榴辉岩，通常形成独立块体，有时夹薄层片麻岩、片岩，岩石呈块状、条带状、斑杂状、条纹状和片麻状等；Ⅱ类榴辉岩，与超基性岩相伴，矿石主要呈块状和斑杂状；Ⅲ类榴辉岩，与大理岩整合接触，岩石呈块状、片麻状。3类榴辉岩在变晶矿物组合中具有一定的差异。面积测量法统计结果表明：Ⅰ类榴辉岩的晶间金红石占12．49%，间粒金红石占85．69％，包体金红石占1．81％；Ⅱ类榴辉岩的晶间金红石占36．40％，间粒金红石占44．17%，包体金红石占19．43％．Ⅲ类榴辉岩的晶间余红石占27．49％．间粒会红石占53．43%，包体金红石占19．09％。     

江西安远路迳金伯利质煌斑岩筒研究——一种新型的幔源碱性超基性岩

路迳岩筒属火山通道相,由金伯利质煌斑岩、角砾岩、角砾凝灰岩组成,富含幔源橄榄岩包体、普通辉石巨晶和岩球。造岩矿物是橄榄石、斜方辉石、单斜辉石、角闪石和金云母,深源特征指示矿物有镁铝榴石、铬透辉石、铬尖晶石和镁钛铁矿。岩石化学组成超低SiO2,低MgO,高Al2O3,富碱,富挥发组分。轻稀土元素富集,相容元素贫化,不相容元素明显富集。岩浆起源深度约85km。其中：岩体产状,富含包体、巨晶和岩球,岩石结构和构造,矿物组成,岩石化学组成超低SiO2、富碱、富挥发组分等特征与金伯利岩相似;但岩石化学组成高Al2O3,低MgO,K2O低于Na2O,REE和LREE/HREE偏低,部分微量元素的亏损或富集,金云母成分富TiO2,富TFeO,贫MgO,镁铝榴石、铬透辉石、铬尖晶石和镁钛铁矿的Cr2O3含量偏低,岩浆起源深度较浅,均与金伯利岩有重大差异,而更接近煌斑岩类。研究认为,是幔源岩浆岩的一种新类型,岩石名称界定为金伯利质煌斑岩。     

水平荷载作用下单桩非线性m法试验研究

通过对大量模型试验结果的分析，提出了简便合理的水平荷载作用下单桩的计算方法。该方法将常用m法中单一m值与位移建立指数关系，并由bm有k两参数来描述。将这一关系引和常用单桩m法计算中，则计算结果可考虑单桩非线性响应影响。     

南京地区中暑天气条件指数研究预报

本文采用南京地区1988－1997年每年夏季逐日各项气象要素及全市各医院同期重症中暑人数进行统计筛选出热夏年：1988年、1994年、1995年，对这三年中暑期重症中暑病例资料与气象资料进行相关统计分析，找出相关性较好的气象因子，经过方程化筛选，得出气温、湿度、气压、对中暑影响较大。三日滑动平均值为主要预报因子。设计中暑指数数学模式。根据中暑病病理、程度将中暑天气条件分三个等级，给出三个不同的中暑天气条件指数临界值，经过1998年、1999年试报验证，准确率较高，社会效益较好。该指数预测模式基本可行。     

远场和超远场前兆的模拟实验研究

在岩石试件、传压块体（包括岩石和钢块）和压机架上布设应变观测点，观测研究它们在岩石试样破裂孕育过程中的变化特征。结果发现，岩样临破坏前除岩样上各个测点都出现异常变化外，同时较远处的测力元件、传压块体和压机架上的应变也出现了突变或扰动前兆异常。岩石试样外部测点的应变特征变化在极临近主破裂时才有反映。而岩样上的测点除极临近主破裂时有突变和扰动外在离主破裂较早时已有反映。岩石试样外的测点距岩样约25－90cm，约为破裂尺度的3－10（多）倍。这表明在孕震区以外很远的地方都可能出现前兆异常。并初步探讨了形成远场前兆的原因。