全新世高温期我国湖泊沉积和自然环境的基本特征

在全新世高温期,我国东部地区湖泊沉积广泛发育,西部地区湖泊扩张和高湖面记录普遍。证实该时期我国大多数地区水热条件与现今相比有不同程度的提高和改善。预测未来,因大气中CO_2倍增时重现全新世高温期的自然环境,总体上讲它有利于我国工农业生产条件的改善和环境质量的提高,但东部平原的洪涝灾害将加剧。     

太湖和大浦河口风成流、风涌水的数值模拟及其单站验证

介绍了太湖风成流和风涌水的数值摸拟工作。使用两种不同水平分辨率的数值模式,利用中日合作研究组在大浦河口实测的水位、湖流和风的资料对模拟结果进行了验证。结果指出,模式对风涌水及流向有较好的预报能力,流速的预报尚待进一步改进。     

使用AR模型对新疆6级以上地震活动的周期分析

探讨了时间序列分析方法在地震活动性研究中使用的可行性。应用1882年以来新疆及邻近区域内6级以上的强震资料,使用AR模型,分析了本地区强震活动的规律及特征。其结果可用于新疆未来强震活动的趋势分析及预测。     

菏泽5.9级地震前后水准测量与承压水变化关系的研究

利用深层承压水头观测结果,对东明——菏泽长水准测线8——9号测段的高差变化进行了回归计算和相关分析。认为菏泽市城区9号测点下沉的主要原因是受深层承压水头变化的影响。排除地下水影响因素后证实,1983年11月7日菏泽5.9级地震前后仅3mm左右的升降变化,表明9号测点对这次中强地震仅能反映微弱的形变信息量。     

THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN EFFICACY OF GEOELECTRICAL RESISTIVITY METHOD IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND SITE CONDITION

INTRODUCTION In the past two decades, field observation, laboratory experiments, and the theoretical studies in the study on earthquake prediction have been carried out in several countries, by using ρ_s method, and valuable results have been achieved. The first geoelectrical resistivity (ρ_s) observatory for earthquake forecasting established at     

The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module. The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 1–8, 1992.     

琼州7.5级地震区深部电性异常及地震活动性研究

通过对1605年琼州7.5级大地震震中区及邻近地区大地电磁探测,发现震中区地壳深部存在一低阻体.该低阻体自约13 km以下一直延伸到上地幔,推测其为正在上升的地幔柱,并由此认为地幔柱的存在及其热物质的上涌,使上部地壳产生断裂和粘滑活动,是产生琼州7.5级大地震的重要原因. 这次大地震后断裂活动表现为以蠕滑为主.推测未来再发生同等强度大地震的危险性将大大降低.      

格尔木井水温异常特征及其与地震关系分析

简要介绍了格尔木井水温动态观测的环境与条件,在研究正常动态特征和影响因素的基础上,对水温异常的映震关系进行了分析,并成功地进行了一次短临地震趋势预测。探讨了水温异常的形成原因。     

Analysis on the decadal scale variation of the dust storm in North China

Dust storm is a disastrous weather that can cause serious environmental consequences and hazards. It causes excessive soil mass and nutrient loss in source areas, and air pollution in deposition area, which result in bad influence on agriculture, industry, traffic, and peoples’ daily life[1-4]. Dust storm can also affect the thermal balance of planetary radiation and then lead to meso- to macroscale climatic modification[5-7]. North- west China and North China are two high-frequency centers …     

Knowledge Representation Methods in Expert System for Earthquake Prediction ESEP 3.0

INTRODUCTIONKnowledgerepresentationandknowledgeacquisitionarekeyissuesinbuildinganexpertsystem .Theyarecloselyrelatedtothedomainproblem solvinglevelandcompetenceoftheexpertsystem .Intheknowledgeacquisitionprocess,thedomainexpertwillfirstofferandorganizepr…