Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

Variations of daytime and nighttime electron temperature and heat flux in the upper ionosphere,topside ionosphere and lower plasmasphere for low and high solar activity

A database of the electron temperature (T_e) comprising of most of the available LEO satellite measurements is used for studying the solar activity variations of T_e. The T_e data are grouped for two levels of solar activity (low LSA and high HSA), five altitude ranges between 350 and 2000 km, and day and night. By fitting a theoretical expression to the T_e values we obtain variation of T_e along magnetic field lines and heat flux for LSA and HSA. We have found that T_e increases with increase in solar activity at low and mid-latitudes during nighttime at all altitudes studied. During daytime the T_e response to solar activity depends on latitude, altitude, and season. This analysis shows existence of anti-correlation between T_e and solar activity at mid-latitudes below 700 km during the equinox and winter day hours. Heat fluxes show small latitudinal dependence for daytime but substantial for nighttime.     

Hypocenter location of mixed events in real-time processing systems

Automatic pickings in earthquake real-time monitoring systems often contain noise bursts and/or phases of different event(s) occurring almost simultaneously. Typically, a locator uses these picks as P and S waves arrival times coming from a single event and, therefore, should be complemented by a distinctive phase association logic. The method we propose manages to automatically associate data related to different events and eliminates the influence of spoiled data from single events. The method is based on “network beamforming”, a robust and stable algorithm, which utilizes a hypocenter grid search for the stack maximum of a set of complex exponents applied to the P phase readings. The algorithm separates the residual outliers and then uses them for location. If successful, a hypocenter is established for the interfering event. The solutions obtained are overall robust and independent from the estimate of origin times. The preliminary epicenter for the grid search is provided by the intersection of perpendicular bisectors in the modified “arrival order algorithm” or by the modified “T^now” algorithm, which uses non-arrival information. We applied this method to automatic first arrival phase readings of 915 events registered by the Hi-net Japan seismic network and our results are statistically promising. Here, we present two interesting and complicated examples.     

Inversion of normal moveout for monoclinic media1

Multiple vertical fracture sets, possibly combined with horizontal fine layering, produce an equivalent medium of monoclinic symmetry with a horizontal symmetry plane. Although monoclinic models may be rather common for fractured formations, they have hardly been used in seismic methods of fracture detection due to the large number of independent elements in the stiffness tensor. Here, we show that multicomponent wide-azimuth reflection data (combined with known vertical velocity or reflector depth) or multi-azimuth walkaway VSP surveys provide enough information to invert for all but one anisotropic parameters of monoclinic media. In order to facilitate the inversion procedure, we introduce a Thomsen-style parametrization for monoclinic media that includes the vertical velocities of the P-wave and one of the split S-waves and a set of dimensionless anisotropic coefficients. Our notation, defined for the coordinate frame associated with the polarization directions of the vertically propagating shear waves, captures the combinations of the stiffnesses responsible for the normal-moveout (NMO) ellipses of all three pure modes. The first group of the anisotropic parameters contains seven coefficients (ε^(1,2), δ^(1,2,3) and γ^(1,2)) analogous to those defined by Tsvankin for the higher-symmetry orthorhombic model. The parameters ε^(1,2), δ^(1,2) and γ^(1,2) are primarily responsible for the pure-mode NMO velocities along the coordinate axes x₁ and x₂ (i.e. in the shear-wave polarization directions). The remaining coefficient δ⁽³⁾ is not constrained by conventional-spread reflection traveltimes in a horizontal monoclinic layer. The second parameter group consists of the newly introduced coefficients ζ^(1,2,3) which control the rotation of the P-, S₁- and S₂-wave NMO ellipses with respect to the horizontal coordinate axes. Misalignment of the P-wave NMO ellipse and shear-wave polarization directions was recently observed on field data by Pérez et al. Our parameter-estimation algorithm, based on NMO equations valid for any strength of the anisotropy, is designed to obtain anisotropic parameters of monoclinic media by inverting the vertical velocities and NMO ellipses of the P-, S₁- and S₂-waves. A Dix-type representation of the NMO velocity of mode-converted waves makes it possible to replace the pure shear modes in reflection surveys with the PS₁- and PS₂-waves. Numerical tests show that our method yields stable estimates of all relevant parameters for both a single layer and a horizontally stratified monoclinic medium.     

Flow-plant interactions at a leaf scale: effects of leaf shape, serration, roughness and flexural rigidity

The effects of leaf shape, serration, roughness and flexural rigidity on drag force imposed by flowing water and its time variability were experimentally studied in an open-channel flume at seven leaf Reynolds numbers ranging from 5 to 35 × 10³. The study involved artificial leaves of the same surface area but with three shapes (‘elliptic’, ‘rectangular’ and ‘pinnate’), three flexural rigidities, smooth-edge and sawtooth-like serration, and three combinations of surface roughness (two-side rough, one-side rough/one-side smooth, and two-side smooth). Shape was the most important factor determining flow-leaf interactions, with flexural rigidity, serration and surface roughness affecting the magnitude but not the direction of the effect on drag control. The smooth-edge elliptic leaf had a better hydrodynamic shape as it experienced less drag force, with the rectangular leaf showing slightly less efficiency. The pinnate leaf experienced higher drag force than the other leaves due to its complex geometry. It is likely that flow separation from 12 leaflets of the pinnate leaf prevented leaf reconfiguration such as leaflets folding and/or streamlining. Flexural rigidity strongly influenced the leaf reconfiguration and augmented the serration effect since very rigid leaves showed a strong effect of serration. Furthermore, serration changed the turbulence pattern around the leaves by increasing the turbulence intensity. Surface roughness was observed to enhance the drag force acting on the leaf at high Reynolds numbers. The results also suggest that there are two distinctly different flow-leaf interaction regimes: (I) regime of passive interaction at low turbulence levels when the drag statistics are completely controlled by the turbulence statistics, and (II) regime of active interaction at high turbulence levels when the effect of leaf properties on the drag statistics becomes comparable to the turbulence contribution.     

High-resolution spectroscopy of Venus: Detection of OCS, upper limit to H2S, and latitudinal variations of CO and HF in the upper cloud layer

Venus was observed at 2.4 and 3.7 μm with a resolving power of 4×¹⁰⁴ using the long-slit high-resolution spectrograph CSHELL at NASA IRTF. The observations were made along a chord that covered a latitude range of ± 60° at a local time near 8:00. The continuous reflectivity and limb brightening at 2.4 μm are fitted by the clouds with a single scattering albedo 1−a=0.01 and a pure absorbing layer with τ=0.09 above the clouds. The value of 1−a agrees with the refractive index of H₂SO₄ (85%) and the particle radius of 1 μm. The absorbing layer is similar to that observed by the UV spectrometer at the Pioneer Venus orbiter. However, its nature is puzzling. CO₂ was measured using its R32 and R34 lines. The retrieved product of the CO₂ abundance and airmass is constant at 1.9 km-atm along the instrument slit in the latitude range of ± 60°. The CO mixing ratio (measured using the P21 line) is rather constant at 70 ppm, and its variations of ∼10% may be caused by atmospheric dynamics. The observed value is higher than the 50 ppm retrieved previously from a spectrum of the full disk, possibly, because of some downward extension of the mesospheric morningside bulge of CO. The observations of the HF R3 line reveal a constant HF mixing ratio of 3.5±0.5 ppb within ± 60° of latitude, which is within the scatter in the previous measurements of HF. OCS has been detected for the first time at the cloud tops by summing 17 lines of the P-branch. The previous detections of OCS refer to the lower atmosphere at 30-35 km. The retrieved OCS mixing ratio varies with a scale height of 1 to 3 km. The mean OCS mixing ratio is ∼2 ppb at 70 km and ∼14 ppb at 64 km. Vertical motions in the atmosphere may change the OCS abundance. The detected OCS should significantly affect Venus' photochemistry. A sensitive search for H₂S using its line at 2688.93 cm⁻¹ results in a 3 sigma upper limit of 23 ppb, which is more restrictive than the previous limit of 100 ppb.     

Constraints on decaying dark matter from XMM–Newton observations of M31

We derive constraints on the parameters of the radiatively decaying dark matter (DM) particle, using the XMM–Newton EPIC spectra of the Andromeda galaxy (M31). Using the observations of the outer (5–13 arcmin) parts of M31, we improve the existing constraints. For the case of sterile neutrino DM, combining our constraints with the latest computation of abundances of sterile neutrinos in the Dodelson–Widrow (DW) scenario, we obtain the lower mass limit   m _s < 4 keV  , which is stronger than the previous one   m _s < 6 keV  , obtained recently by Asaka, Laine & Shaposhnikov. Comparing this limit with the most recent results on Lyman α forest analysis of Viel et al.  ( m _s > 5.6 keV  ), we argue that the scenario in which all the DM is produced via the DW mechanism is ruled out. We discuss, however, other production mechanisms and note that the sterile neutrino remains a viable candidate for DM, either warm or cold.     

Shelf-basin exchange in the Laptev Sea in the warming climate: a model study

GCM-based forecast simulations predict continuously increasing seasonality of the sea ice cover and an almost ice-free, summer-time, Arctic Ocean within several decades from the present. In this study we use a primitive equation ocean model: NEMO, coupled with the sea ice model LIM2, to test the hypothesis that under such an increased range in seasonal ice cover the intensity of shelf-basin water exchange will significantly increase. We use the simulated results for the Laptev Sea from a global model run 1958–2007 and compare results for two years with anomalously high and low summer sea ice extents: 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. The shelf–basin fluxes of volume, heat and salt during specific seasons are evaluated and attributed to plausible driving processes, with particular attention to dense water cascading. Analyses of the model temperature distribution at the depth of the intermediate maximum, associated with Atlantic Water, have shown a marked increase of the amount of the local origin cold water in late winter 2007 in the region, where dense water typically appears as a result of its formation on the shelf and subsequent downslope leakage. Calculation of the shelf-basin exchange during March-May in both years confirmed a substantial increase (a factor of two) of fluxes in “ice-free” 2007 compared to the “icy” 1987. According to several past model studies, dense water production on Arctic shelves in winter driven by ice freezing and brine rejection is not likely to cease in a warmer climate, but rather to increase. There is also observational evidence that cascading in the seasonally ice covered seas (e.g. the Barents Sea) is much more efficient than it is in the permanently ice covered Arctic Ocean, which supports these model results.     

Fault Wear by Damage Evolution During Steady-State Slip

Slip along faults generates wear products such as gouge layers and cataclasite zones that range in thickness from sub-millimeter to tens of meters. The properties of these zones apparently control fault strength and slip stability. Here we present a new model of wear in a three-body configuration that utilizes the damage rheology approach and considers the process as a microfracturing or damage front propagating from the gouge zone into the solid rock. The derivations for steady-state conditions lead to a scaling relation for the damage front velocity considered as the wear-rate. The model predicts that the wear-rate is a function of the shear-stress and may vanish when the shear-stress drops below the microfracturing strength of the fault host rock. The simulated results successfully fit the measured friction and wear during shear experiments along faults made of carbonate and tonalite. The model is also valid for relatively large confining pressures, small damage-induced change of the bulk modulus and significant degradation of the shear modulus, which are assumed for seismogenic zones of earthquake faults. The presented formulation indicates that wear dynamics in brittle materials in general and in natural faults in particular can be understood by the concept of a “propagating damage front” and the evolution of a third-body layer.