The 1974 eruption of mount etna

The 1974 Etna eruption that occurred on the lower, west part of the volcano is rather exceptional as it appeared independent of the central main vent activity. The products of this eruption also differ from those commonly emitted throughout historic times. They are almost aphyric and display an unusual order of crystallization, clinopyroxene being a near liquidus phase instead of plagioclase that is typical in all other recent lavas. The chemical composition is also slightly more basic than that of pyroclastics contemporaneously erupted by the summit Central Crater. These volcanological and petrological features are symptomatic of a separation at depth of the 1974 magma from the central conduit. The eruption itself, however, appears to have been governed by the general structural environment of the volcano. From this stand-point, there is evident interdependence between the various paroxysms of the past five years and it is suggested that the volcanic activity itself has direct relations with the regional tectonics. A model of the superficial structure of Mount Etna is given that best accounts for the observations.     

Multi-scale slope instabilities along the Nile deep-sea fan,Egyptian margin: A general overview

The Nile deep-sea fan (NDSF), turbiditic system reaching a size of about 90,000 km², has been investigated since 1998 by several geophysical methods (multibeam bathymetry, backscatter imagery, seismic data, 3–5 kHz echo-sounding). The analysis of this important data set evidenced that the NDSF is the locus of numerous multi-scale slope instabilities. Three main types of instabilities have been defined, mainly on the basis of their size or origin. (1) First type of instabilities related to the generalized gravity spreading of the Plio-Quaternary deep-sea fan on Messinian salt layers. This global spreading is accommodated by numerous localized slides. (2) Second type of instabilities correspond to giant mass movements probably triggered either by earthquakes, fluids, or climate and eustatic oscillations. Finally, (3) third type of instabilities correspond either to localized levee liquefactions or to thin-skinned slides on the steep slopes of the Eratosthenes seamount. The deposits generated by these slope movements greatly participate in the building of the NDSF. The characterization of these different instabilities, in a petroleum province as the NDSF, has important implications in terms of risk assessments when considering drilling operations.     

Influence of a hedge surrounding bottomland on seasonal soil‐water movement

The influence of a hedge surrounding bottomland on soil‐water movement along the hillslope was studied on a plot scale for 28 months. The study was based on the comparison of two transects, one with a hedge, the other without, using mainly a dense grid of tensiometers. The influence of the bottomland hedge was located in the area where tree roots were developed, several metres upslope from the hedge, and could be observed both in the saturated and non‐saturated zone, from May to December. The hedge induced a high rate of soil drying, because of the high evaporative capacity of the trees. We evaluated that water uptake by the hedge during the growing season was at least 100 mm higher than without a hedge. This increased drying rate led to a delayed rewetting of the soils upslope from the hedge in autumn, of about 1 month compared with the situation without a hedge. Several consequences of this delayed rewetting are expected: a delay in the return of subsurface transfer from the hillslope to the riparian zone, a buffering effect of hedges on floods, already observed at the catchment scale, and an increased residence time of pollutants. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Summer interactions between weather regimes and surface ocean in the North-Atlantic region

This study aims at understanding the summer ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Atlantic European region on intraseasonal timescales. The CNRMOM1d ocean model is forced with ERA40 (ECMWF Re-Analysis) surface fluxes with a 1-h frequency in solar heat flux (6 h for the other forcing fields) over the 1959–2001 period. The model has 124 vertical levels with a vertical resolution of 1 m near the surface and 500 m at the bottom. This ocean forced experiment is used to assess the impact of the North Atlantic weather regimes on the surface ocean. Composites of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with each weather regime are computed and the mechanisms explaining these anomalies are investigated. Then, the SST anomalies related to each weather regime in the ocean-forced experiment are prescribed to the ARPEGE Atmosphere General Circulation Model. We show that the interaction with the surface ocean induces a positive feedback on the persistence of the Blocking regime, a negative feedback on the persistence of the NAO-regime and favours the transition from the Atlantic Ridge regime to the NAO-regime and from the Atlantic Low regime toward the Blocking regime.     

A political-cultural map of Europe. Family structures and the origins of differences between national political cultures in the European Union

Differences between the national political cultures of the European states are puzzling. They are too often taken for granted or treated as an elusive explanation for residual differences that can not be accounted for in comparative politics. Here they are put at the core of a comparative analysis. This article explores the origins of differences between national political cultures. It deals with national political cultures from the perspective of Cultural Theory or grid-group analysis. A national political culture is conceived as a ‘conversation’ between subcultures associated to national political institutions and practices (and not as an aggregated pattern of individual orientations toward political objects). National political cultures can be characterised on the basis of ideal typical patterns of relations between the basic cultures or rationalities distinguished by Cultural Theory. After an assessment of the differences between the national political cultures of the Member States of the European Union, the paper considers traditional family structures as possible sources of differentiation, elaborating upon the work of the French political historian Emmanuel Todd who has documented the correspondence between the geography of traditional family structures and the geography of ideologies in Europe. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests for transient heads in heterogeneous aquifers

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests have been proposed as an efficient method to investigate preferential flowpaths in heterogeneous aquifers, which is a major task in the characterization of fractured aquifers. Cross-borehole flowmeter tests are based on the idea that changing the pumping conditions in a given aquifer will modify the hydraulic head distribution in large-scale flowpaths, producing measurable changes in the vertical flow profiles in observation boreholes. However, inversion of flow measurements to derive flowpath geometry and connectivity and to characterize their hydraulic properties is still a subject of research. In this study, we propose a framework for cross-borehole flowmeter test interpretation that is based on a two-scale conceptual model: discrete fractures at the borehole scale and zones of interconnected fractures at the aquifer scale. We propose that the two problems may be solved independently. The first inverse problem consists of estimating the hydraulic head variations that drive the transient borehole flow observed in the cross-borehole flowmeter experiments. The second inverse problem is related to estimating the geometry and hydraulic properties of large-scale flowpaths in the region between pumping and observation wells that are compatible with the head variations deduced from the first problem. To solve the borehole-scale problem, we treat the transient flow data as a series of quasi-steady flow conditions and solve for the hydraulic head changes in individual fractures required to produce these data. The consistency of the method is verified using field experiments performed in a fractured-rock aquifer.     

Microtextural investigation (SEM and TEM study) of phyllosilicates in a major thrust fault zone (Monte Perdido, southern Pyrenees): impact on fault reactivation

Thrusting fault zone in foreland basins are characterized by highly foliated zones generally enriched in phyllosilicates which can play a major role on the mechanical behaviour of the fault. In this context, investigations of synkinematic clay minerals permit to determine the origin of the fluid from which they precipitated as well as the mechanisms of deformation. Our study is focused on clay mineral assemblages (illite and chlorite) in a major thrust fault located in the Monte Perdido massif (southern Pyrenees), a shallow thrust that affects upper cretaceous-paleocene platform carbonates and lower Eocene marls and turbidites. It implied 3?km of displacement of the Monte Perdido thrust unit with respect to the underlying Gavarnie unit. In this area the cleavage development by pressure-solution is linked to the Monte Perdido and Gavarnie thrust activity. The core zone of the fault, about 6?m thick, consists of an interval of intensely deformed clay-bearing rocks bounded by major shear surfaces. The deformed sediment is markedly darker than the protolith. Calcite-quartz shear veins along the shear planes are abundant. Detailed SEM and TEM observations of highly deformed fault zone samples indicate that clay mineral enrichment in the core zone of the fault is not only related to passive increase by pressure-solution mechanism but that dissolution?Crecrystallization of phyllosilicates occurs during deformation. A mineral segregation is observed in the highly deformed zone. Newly formed 2M ₁ muscovite is present along the cleavage whereas IIb chlorite crystals fill S_V2 shear veins suggesting syntectonic growth of phyllosilicates in the presence of fluids in low-grade metamorphic conditions. These mineralogical reactions act as weakening processes and would favour Monte Perdido fault creeping.     

Disaster risk reduction on non-sovereign islands: La Réunion and Mayotte,France

The Islands of Réunion and Mayotte are French territories in the Indian Ocean and are prone to numerous and recurrent hazards as well as to increasing vulnerabilities. This paper examines disaster risk reduction on non-sovereign islands through the case studies of Réunion and Mayotte. The approach used is embedded in standard geographical approaches to risk analysis, focusing on place-based vulnerability, in order to understand disaster risk and disaster risk reduction on both islands. In addition to establishing baseline information and visiting both islands for further data, 21 semi-structured individual interviews were completed to understand the people’s perceptions of the hazards and of their vulnerabilities. Disaster risk reduction strategies, and attitudes from governing bodies implementing the strategies, tend to assume similar vulnerability contexts as mainland France, despite obvious differences on the islands. Many policies are implemented in a top–down manner by those from mainland France who have little interest in, and who do not fully take into consideration, local realities. This paper contributes new case studies to the literature, especially in comparing two non-Anglophone non-sovereign islands, and reinforces recommendations factoring in local contexts when addressing ‘vulnerability of a place’ to disasters.     

Simultaneous solution for water,heat and salt balances in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon (Mar Menor,Spain)

A modelling approach is proposed to evaluate the environmental dynamics of coastal lagoons. The water, heat and salt balances are addressed simultaneously, providing a better estimation of evaporation and water exchanges. Compared to traditional approaches, the model presented accounts for the effects of water salinity, heat storage and net energy advected in the water body. The model was applied daily to the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain) from 2003 through 2006. Water exchanges with the Mediterranean Sea were estimated based on the monthly trend of the lagoon salinity and were correlated with monthly averages of wind speed. The mean daily water exchange with the sea was 1.77 hm³ d⁻¹. This exchange accounted for only 1% of the heat losses in the lagoon heat balance, and it is the most important flow in the water balance. The mean annual evaporation flux amounted to 101.3 W m⁻² (3.55 mm d⁻¹), while the sensible heat flux amounted to 19.7 W m⁻², leading to an annual Bowen ratio on the order of 0.19. To validate the model, daily water temperatures were predicted based on the daily heat balance of the water body and were compared with remote sensing data from water surface standard products.