On a class of non-stationary, compactly supported spatial covariance functions

Globally supported covariance functions are generally associated with dense covariance matrices, meaning severe numerical problems in solution feasibility. These problems can be alleviated by considering methods yielding sparse covariance matrices. Indeed, having many zero entries in the covariance matrix can both greatly reduce computer storage requirements and the number of floating point operations needed in computation. Compactly supported covariance functions considerably reduce the computational burden of kriging, and allow the use of computationally efficient sparse matrix techniques, thus becoming a core aspect in spatial prediction when dealing with massive data sets. However, most of the work done in the context of compactly supported covariance functions has been carried out in the stationary context. This assumption is not generally met in practical and real problems, and there has been a growing recognition of the need for non-stationary spatial covariance functions in a variety of disciplines. In this paper we present a new class of non-stationary, compactly supported spatial covariance functions, which adapts a class of convolution-based flexible models to non-stationary situations. Some particular examples, computational issues, and connections with existing models are considered.     

Diatom assemblage changes in lacustrine sediments from Isla de los Estados, southernmost South America, in response to shifts in the southwesterly wind belt during the last deglaciation

Isla de los Estados (54° 45′S, 63° 10′–64° 46′W) lies east of the main island of Tierra del Fuego and is the southeastern-most point in Argentina. Because of its geographic position near the latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies and the strong influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the area is suitable for paleoecological and paleoclimate research. The island is not far north of the Subantarctic Front, which limits the northern boundary of the ACC. Paleoenvironmental study in this geographic location can shed light on past changes in atmospheric and marine circulation patterns. Diatom analysis of the lower part of a sediment sequence from Laguna Cascada (54° 45′ 51.3′′S, 64° 20′ 20.07′′W) enabled inference of changing lake conditions between 16 and 11.1 cal ka BP. Between 16 and 14.4 cal ka BP fragilarioid diatom species, often a pioneer group, dominated the record. Their presence shows seasonally open-water conditions from the onset of sedimentation. In zone II (14.4–12.8 cal ka BP), the dominance of planktonic/tychoplanktonic Aulacoseira spp. might represent longer ice-free periods and windier conditions, which would have kept this heavy species suspended in the water column. This period corresponds to the Antarctic Cold Reversal, when the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies were possibly centered on the latitudes of Tierra del Fuego, resulting in windy and wet conditions. Zone III (12.8–11.1 cal ka BP) is dominated by benthic diatom taxa that are mainly associated with peat and wetland vegetation. This suggests that climate conditions had become milder and less windy, favoring aquatic productivity and terrestrial vegetation development. This change in environmental conditions may have been a consequence of the southward movement of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies at the start of the Antarctic Holocene thermal optimum.     

Wind influence on surface current variability in the Ibiza Channel from HF Radar

Surface current variability is investigated using 2.5 years of continuous velocity measurements from an high frequency radar (HFR) located in the Ibiza Channel (Western Mediterranean Sea). The Ibiza Channel is identified as a key geographical feature for the exchange of water masses but still poorly documented. Operational, quality controlled, HFR derived velocities are provided by the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB). They are assessed by performing statistical comparisons with current-meter, ADCP, and surface lagrangian drifters. HFR system does not show significant bias, and its accuracy is in accordance with previous studies performed in other areas. The main surface circulation patterns are deduced from an EOF analysis. The first three modes represent almost 70 % of the total variability. A cross-correlation analysis between zonal and meridional wind components and the temporal amplitudes of the first three modes reveal that the first two modes are mainly driven by local winds, with immediate effects of wind forcing and veering following Ekman effect. The first mode (37 % of total variability) is the response of meridional wind while the second mode (24 % of total variability) is linked primarily with zonal winds. The third and higher order modes are related to mesoscale circulation features. HFR derived surface transport presents a markedly seasonal variability being mostly southwards. Its comparison with Ekman-induced transport shows that wind contribution to the total surface transport is on average around 65 %.     

Geodetic and Structural Research in La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain: 1992–2007 Results

We review the results of the geodetic and structural studies carried out on La Palma Island using geodetic and geophysical data during the period 1992–2007. InSAR and GPS observation techniques were applied to study the existence of deformation on the island and gravity observations were carried out for structural studies. Gravity data were inverted using a nonlinear three-dimensional gravity inversion approach to obtain the geometry of the anomalous bodies constructed in a random growth process with respect to an exponentially stratified background. The main structural feature is a large central body (under the Caldera de Taburiente) with high density, which was interpreted as the Pliocene-age uplifted seamount and a relatively dense intrusive plutonic complex/magma body. The Cumbre Vieja series is characterized by elongated minima distributed according to the rift structure. InSAR results show a clear subsidence located on the Teneguía volcano, where the last eruption took place in 1971. A thermal source is the most probable origin for this deformation. A GPS network composed of 26 stations covering the total island surface was set up. Vertical displacements determined comparing the GPS coordinates obtained in 2007 with coordinates determined in 1994 are consistent with the InSAR results obtained in the southern part of the island. This is not the case for the northern part. From the comparison of 2006 and 2007 coordinates it is clear that more time is needed to obtain significant displacements, but observed trends are also consistent with InSAR results. All the observed significant displacements are in stations located outside of the large high-density central body.     

Growing season expansion and related changes in monthly temperature and growing degree days in the Inter-Montane Desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado

Most climate change studies on high elevation ecosystems identify changes in biota, while several report abiotic factors. However, very few report expansion of the freeze-free period, or discuss monthly changes of temperature and growing degree days (GDD) during the growing season. This study provides initial data on agriculturally-related aspects of climate change during the growing season (M-J-J-A-S) in the inter-montane desert of the San Luis Valley (SLV), Colorado. Temperature data were gathered from 7 climate stations within the SLV. Based on ordinal days, the last vernal freeze is occurring (p?<?0.05) earlier at 3 stations than in prior years, ranging between 5.52 and 11.86?days during 1981–2007. Significantly-later autumnal freezes are occurring at 5 stations by 5.95–18.10?days, while expansion of the freeze-free period was significantly longer at all stations by 7.20–24.21?days. The freeze-free period averaged about 93?days prior to the 1980s, but now averages about 107?days. Increases (p?<?0.05) in daily mean, maximum, minimum temperature occurred at nearly all stations for each month. Increases in GDD₁₀, GDD_4.4 (potato) and GDD_5.5 (alfalfa) also occurred at nearly all stations for all months during 1994–2007. Higher temperatures increase the number of GDD, quickening crop growth and maturity, and potentially reducing yield and quality unless varieties are adapted to changes and water is available for the season extension and increased evapotranspiration.