Analysis of extreme temperatures for four sites across Peninsular Spain

Statistical analyses regarding climate studies have often used the average temperature as one of the main variables. However, the tails of the respective distributions are also crucial and have become increasingly considered in recent years. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its fourth assessment report (IPCC 2007) states, ??the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth??s climate changes??. In this paper, the focus is on the statistical behaviour of extreme (maximum and minimum) values of temperature, both in winter and summer. Under the framework of the Extreme Value Theory, the methodology of block maxima is employed. The generalised extreme value distribution, allowing for a linear trend in the location parameter, is fitted to data in order to capture the time tendency in the non-stationary processes. We are able to approximate expected values with a determined probability and to identify time trends of such events. Particularly, an increasing time trend in maximum and minimum temperature is generally detected which could be of great concern to public and private sectors.     

Surface Synoptic Circulation and Daily Precipitation in Catalonia

Summary Catalonian daily precipitation patterns were obtained by means of S-mode Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to subsets built up according to synoptic surface airflow. Daily data from November to April 1990–1994 from 45 raingauge sites in Catalonia without missing data were used. Eight circulation classes for days in this period were considered. A Precipitation Activity Index (PAI) was calculated for each station and class, leading to the determination of the highest activity regions for each subset. In addition, we determined which circulation type produced most precipitation at each station of the network. Separate PCAs were performed for each of the eight classes considered and the first four Varimax rotated solutions were interpreted for each circulation type. The physical meaning of the rest of the factors were omitted as they were associated with local behaviour. Finally, some concluding remarks on the cyclogenic properties of the Western Mediterranean Basin and the diversity of the extracted patterns are presented and supported by the authors experience in forecasting in Catalonia. Received February, 11, 1997 Revised May 23, 1997     

Subduction metamorphism of serpentinite‐hosted carbonates beyond antigorite‐serpentinite dehydration (Nevado‐Filábride Complex,Spain)

At sub‐arc depths, the release of carbon from subducting slab lithologies is mostly controlled by fluid released by devolatilization reactions such as dehydration of antigorite (Atg‐) serpentinite to prograde peridotite. Here we investigate carbonate–silicate rocks hosted in Atg‐serpentinite and prograde chlorite (Chl‐) harzburgite in the Milagrosa and Almirez ultramafic massifs of the palaeo‐subducted Nevado‐Filábride Complex (NFC, Betic Cordillera, S. Spain). These massifs provide a unique opportunity to study the stability of carbonate during subduction metamorphism at P–T conditions before and after the dehydration of Atg‐serpentinite in a warm subduction setting. In the Milagrosa massif, carbonate–silicate rocks occur as lenses of Ti‐clinohumite–diopside–calcite marbles, diopside–dolomite marbles and antigorite–diopside–dolomite rocks hosted in clinopyroxene‐bearing Atg‐serpentinite. In Almirez, carbonate–silicate rocks are hosted in Chl‐harzburgite and show a high‐grade assemblage composed of olivine, Ti‐clinohumite, diopside, chlorite, dolomite, calcite, Cr‐bearing magnetite, pentlandite and rare aragonite inclusions. These NFC carbonate–silicate rocks have variable CaO and CO₂ contents at nearly constant Mg/Si ratio and high Ni and Cr contents, indicating that their protoliths were variable mixtures of serpentine and Ca‐carbonate (i.e., ophicarbonates). Thermodynamic modelling shows that the carbonate–silicate rocks attained peak metamorphic conditions similar to those of their host serpentinite (Milagrosa massif; 550–600°C and 1.0–1.4 GPa) and Chl‐harzburgite (Almirez massif; 1.7–1.9 GPa and 680°C). Microstructures, mineral chemistry and phase relations indicate that the hybrid carbonate–silicate bulk rock compositions formed before prograde metamorphism, likely during seawater hydrothermal alteration, and subsequently underwent subduction metamorphism. In the CaO–MgO–SiO₂ ternary, these processes resulted in a compositional variability of NFC serpentinite‐hosted carbonate–silicate rocks along the serpentine‐calcite mixing trend, similar to that observed in serpentinite‐hosted carbonate‐rocks in other palaeo‐subducted metamorphic terranes. Thermodynamic modelling using classical models of binary H₂O–CO₂ fluids shows that the compositional variability along this binary determines the temperature of the main devolatilization reactions, the fluid composition and the mineral assemblages of reaction products during prograde subduction metamorphism. Thermodynamic modelling considering electrolytic fluids reveals that H₂O and molecular CO₂ are the main fluid species and charged carbon‐bearing species occur only in minor amounts in equilibrium with carbonate–silicate rocks in warm subduction settings. Consequently, accounting for electrolytic fluids at these conditions slightly increases the solubility of carbon in the fluids compared with predictions by classical binary H₂O–CO₂ fluids, but does not affect the topology of phase relations in serpentinite‐hosted carbonate‐rocks. Phase relations, mineral composition and assemblages of Milagrosa and Almirez (meta)‐serpentinite‐hosted carbonate–silicate rocks are consistent with local equilibrium between an infiltrating fluid and the bulk rock composition and indicate a limited role of infiltration‐driven decarbonation. Our study shows natural evidence for the preservation of carbonates in serpentinite‐hosted carbonate–silicate rocks beyond the Atg‐serpentinite breakdown at sub‐arc depths, demonstrating that carbon can be recycled into the deep mantle.     

Dynamical capture and physical decay of short-period comets

The brightness evolution of short-period comets is discussed in connection with their physical lifetimes. It is shown that changes in the fraction of the free-subliming area of the nuclear surface may be more important than mass decrease in determining brightness variations. The decrease in the activity of short-period comets caused by the buildup of a dust mantle may be interrupted—and partially reversed—by dust blowoffs that leave exposed areas of fresh ices. Short-period comets may thus be subject to random brightness fluctuations that make quite uncertain any derivation of their physical lifetime based on comparisons of their absolute brightness at different apparitions. As an alternate procedure, the numerical integration of the whole sample of short-period comet orbits carried out by A. Carusi, L.Kresák, E. Perozzi and G. B. Valsecchi (1984, Long-Term Evolution of Short-Period Comets. Istituto Astrofisica Spaziale Internal Report 12, Rome) is used to draw conclusions about the transfer rate of their perihelia from Jupiter's region to the region of the terrestrial planets (heliocentric distances<1.5 AU). It is found that about one short-period comet per century reaches the region of the terrestrial planets. From this result and under the assumption of a steady-state comet population, an average lifetime of the order of 6 × 10³ years (～10³ revolutions) is derived for a typical kilometer-sized short-period comet of perihelion distance q ～ 1 AU. Such a rather long comet lifetime, as compared to some previous derivations, is consistent with the survival of some periodic comets on small-q orbits of long dynamical time scales.     

Variation of the geomagnetic field in Costa Rica during the total solar eclipse of July 11, 1991

Ground measurements of the geomagnetic field, during the total solar eclipse of July 11, 1991, were carried out at three sites in Costa Rica located within the eclipse's path of totality. Near totality, there was a significant change in the total intensity,F. Its normal decrease in the afternoon hours was interrupted during a period of about 45 min, in whichF varied very little. This was due mainly to a small variation in horizontal intensity,H, during such a period. The departure ofF from normal lasted about 100 min; its maximum departure was near 10 nT and occurred about 38 min after totality, The declination,D, also experienced a small change (about 2.3 min) during the total period of the eclipse. The vertical intensity,Z, and the inclination,I, did not show significant changes.     

Statistical Study and Prediction of Variability of Erythemal Ultraviolet Irradiance Solar Values in Valencia,Spain

The goal of this study was to statistically analyse the variability of global irradiance and ultraviolet erythemal (UVER) irradiance and their interrelationships with global and UVER irradiance, global clearness indices and ozone. A prediction of short-term UVER solar irradiance values was also obtained. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were included in the data set, as well as a time series of ultraviolet irradiance variability (UIV). The study period was from 2005 to 2014 and approximately 250,000 readings were taken at 5-min intervals. The effect of the clearness indices on global irradiance variability (GIV) and UIV was also recorded and bi-dimensional distributions were used to gather information on the two measured variables. With regard to daily GIV and UIV, it is also shown that for global clearness index (k_t) values lower than 0.6 both global and UVER irradiance had greater variability and that UIV on cloud-free days (k_t higher than 0.65) exceeds GIV. To study the dependence between UIV and GIV the χ² statistical method was used. It can be concluded that there is a 95% probability of a clear dependency between the variabilities. A connection between high k_t (corresponding to cloudless days) and low variabilities was found in the analysis of bi-dimensional distributions. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were also analyzed and it was possible to calculate the probable future values of UVER irradiance by extrapolating the values of the adjustment curve obtained from the Gumbel distribution.     

Application of the European water framework directive in a Western Mediterranean basin (Málaga,Spain)

The water framework directive (WFD) is applied within the Guadalhorce river basin, a Western Mediterranean basin in the Málaga province (South Spain). Criteria defining different surface and groundwater bodies are described. The basic hydrographic network is constituted of low-mountain and low-altitude Mediterranean mineralized rivers. Heavily modified surface water bodies correspond (1) to areas where dams regulate the main watercourses, (2) to areas downstream of reservoirs, where river flow is reduced, and (3) to the coastal sector of the river where artificial channelling has caused morphological variations. Groundwater bodies are related to carbonate and porous aquifers and, locally, to aquifers influenced by dissolution of evaporites. The main impacts to water bodies are irrigated lands and livestock farming. There are also point sources of pollution, such as wastewater, landfills, golf courses, industrial zones, quarries and petrol stations. In addition, groundwater is frequently pumped for human supply and irrigation. Qualitative status of groundwater bodies was done by chemical analysis of samples from a monitoring network and the quantitative status by examining variations in piezometric levels. Both revealed the existence of water bodies at risk of not meeting the environmental objectives of the WFD. The main indicators of pollution are nitrates related to agricultural activities, and total organic carbon (TOC), PO₄³⁻ and NH₄⁺ in relation to wastewater.     

A new method for three-carrier GNSS ambiguity resolution

A new method for resolving the carrier-phase integer ambiguity in Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is presented: the MOdified Cholesky factorization for Ambiguity (MOCA) resolution. The characteristics and features of this method are described and results obtained using a software simulator and an emulator are presented to validate its efficiency. The results are then compared to those obtained using another existing method and good performance of the MOCA method in new GNSS systems is shown. Furthermore, the proposed method yields accurate results even when short time spans are used or when there are poor estimations of measurement error, making it immune to non-ideal conditions and ultimately a practical solution for real applications.     

The Asturian Basin within the North Iberian margin (Bay of Biscay): seismic characterisation of its geometry and its Mesozoic and Cenozoic cover

The distribution and structure of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic cover within the central part of the North Iberian Margin (Bay of Biscay) is analysed based on a dense set of 2D seismic reflection lines and logs. The integration of well data allows the recognition of seven seismostratigraphic units and the construction of a surface that illustrates the 3D morphology of this area at the time of the Jurassic rifting. The study zone comprises what is known as Le Danois Bank, a basement high, and the Asturian Basin, one of the sedimentary basins originated during the Iberian rifting at the end of the Paleozoic. Its development continued with the oceanisation of the Bay of Biscay as a failed arm of the Atlantic rift; later, during the Cenozoic, a drastic change in tectonic regime induced the partial closure of Biscay and building up the Cantabrian?Pyrenean chain along the northern border of Iberia. This compressional period left its imprint in the Asturian Basin sediments in the form of a mild inversion and general uplift. The geometry of the basin bottom appears as an asymmetric bowl thinning out towards the edges, with a main E‐W depocenter, separated by E‐W striking faults from a secondary one. Those bounding faults show twisted trends in the north, interpreted as a consequence of the compressional period, when a transfer zone in a N‐S direction formed between the two E‐W striking deformation fronts in Biscay. This study shows that the transfer zone extends further to the west, reaching the longitude of Le Danois Bank. The maximum thickness of the filling within the Asturian Basin is estimated in more than 10 km, deeper than assessed in previous studies. The recognition of frequent halokynetic structures at this longitude is another observation worth to remark. Based on this study, it is suggested that the basin formed on top of a distal basement block of stretched crust limiting with the hyperextended rifted domain of Biscay. This location largely conditioned its deformation during the late compression.     

MODELING SEDIMENT PROCESSES ON SMALL WATERSHEDS:A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Ⅰ. BROAD SHALLOW FLOW PROCESSE

A conceptual modeling framework for developing process-based mathematical models of sediment generation, transport, and deposition on broad shallow flow areas is presented. The governing equations relevant to process-based modeling of broad shallow flow sediment processes on small watersheds are presented and the effects of space and time averaging on the predictive equations are described. Starting from the most general one-dimensional, unsteady model of sediment processes, simpler model structures are obtained and the successive simplifications made on the governing equations in order to obtain simpler and less detailed formulations are described. Specific model formulations are given for illustrative purposes and applications of these models to erosion and sediment yield prediction from broad shallow flow areas are shown using sediment data from rainfall simulator plots. In spite of some progress made in the development of process-based erosion and sediment yield models from broad shallow flow areas, further developmental modeling efforts must be based on a clear separation between hydrologic and hydraulic processes, and the soil properties which are significant for each.