Multi-Physics ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone movement over Bay of Bengal

Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track prediction has been assessed. Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with 30-km resolution was used to make 5-day simulation of the movement of Orissa super cyclone (1999), one of the most intense tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. Altogether 36 ensemble members with all possible combinations of three cumulus convection, two planetary boundary layer and six cloud microphysics parameterization schemes were produced. A comparison of individual members indicated that Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection scheme, Mellor–Yamada–Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme and Purdue Lin cloud microphysics scheme showed better performance. The best possible ensemble formulation is identified based on SPREAD and root mean square error (RMSE). While the individual members had track errors ranging from 96–240 km at 24 h to 50–803 km at 120 h, most of the ensemble predictions show significant betterment with mean errors less than 130 km up to 120 h. The convection ensembles had large spread of the cluster, and boundary layer ensembles had significant error disparity, indicating their important roles in the movement of tropical cyclones. Six-member ensemble predictions with cloud microphysics schemes of LIN, WSM5, and WSM6 produce the best predictions with least of RMSE, and large SPREAD indicates the need for inclusion of all possible hydrometeors in the simulation and that six-member ensemble is sufficient to produce the best ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone tracks over Bay of Bengal.     

Implications of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction.     

Redistribution of riverine and rainfall freshwater by the Bay of Bengal circulation

Ocean Dynamics - We use satellite-derived currents and a Lagrangian approach to investigate the redistribution of the precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) and river freshwater inputs into Bay of...     

‘Thermohaline front’ off the east coast of India and its generating mechanism

Physical oceanography measurements reveal a strong salinity (0.18 psu km⁻¹) and temperature (0.07 °C km⁻¹) front off the east coast of India in December 1997. T–S diagrams suggest lateral mixing between the fresh water at the coast and the ambient warmer, saltier water. This front seems to be the result of southward advection of fresh and cool water, formed in the northern Bay of Bengal during the monsoon, by the East Indian Coastal Current, as suggested by the large-scale salinity structure in the SODA re-analysis and the anti-cyclonic gyre in the northwestern Bay of Bengal during winter. The data further reveals an offshore front in January, which appears to be the result of a meso-scale re-circulation around an eddy, bringing cold and freshwater from the northern Bay of Bengal further away from the shore. Our cruise data hence illustrates that very strong salinity fronts can appear in the Bay of Bengal after the monsoon, as a result of intense coastal circulation and stirring by eddies.

     

Role of Nitrogen Oxides,Black Carbon,and Meteorological Parameters on the Variation of Surface Ozone Levels at a Tropical Urban Site – Hyderabad,India

In this study, temporal variations of surface ozone (O₃) were investigated at tropical urban site of Hyderabad during the year 2009. O₃, oxides of nitrogen (NO_x = NO + NO₂), black carbon (BC), and meteorological parameters were continuously monitored at the established air monitoring station. Results revealed the production of surface O₃ from NO₂ through photochemical oxidation. Averaged datasets illustrated the variations in ground‐level concentrations of these air pollutants along different time scales. Maximum mean concentrations of O₃ (56.75 ppbv) and NO_x (8.9 ppbv) were observed in summer. Diurnal‐seasonal changes in surface O₃ and NO_x concentrations were explicated with complex atmospheric chemistry, boundary layer dynamics, and local meteorology. In addition, nocturnal chemistry of NO_x played a decisive role in the formation of O₃ during day time. Mean BC mass concentration in winter (10.92 µg m^?3) was high during morning hours. Heterogeneous chemistry of BC on O₃ destruction and NO_x formation was elucidated. Apart from these local observations, long‐range transport of trace gases and BC aerosols were evidenced from air mass back trajectories. Further, statistical modeling was performed to predict O₃ using multi‐linear regression method, which resulted in 91% of the overall variance.     

Significance of nearshore wave parameters in identifying vulnerable zones during storm and normal conditions along Visakhapatnam coast,India

The nearshore parameters, viz., wave runup, wave setup, and wave energy have been estimated during storm and normal conditions of SW monsoon (June–September) and NE monsoon (November–February) by empirical parameterization along Visakhapatnam coast. These results were compared with the field observations during three storms of SW monsoon season in the year 2007. The higher nearshore wave energies were observed at R.K. Beach, Jodugullapalem beach, and Sagarnagar beach during both the seasons. During storm events, the higher wave energies associated with higher wave runups cause severe erosion along the wave convergence zones. The storm wave runups (SWRUs) were higher at R.K. Beach, Palm beach, Jodugullapalem beach, and Sagarnagar Beach. The yearly low wave energy was observed at Lawson’s Bay with lowest wave runup, considered as safest zone. R.K. Beach, Palm beach, and Jodugullapalem beach are identified as vulnerable zones of wave attack. It is noteworthy that in addition to wave energies, wave runups and wave setups also play a vital role in endangering the coast.     

Geoenvironmental effects of groundwater regime in Andhra Pradesh, India

 The Indian subcontinent has the largest semi-arid tropical (SAT) area among developing nations. The State of Andhra Pradesh falls under the SAT region in India and is mostly covered by compact and hard rocks, characterized by seasonal rainfall of a highly fluctuating nature, in both space and time. As a consequence of the green revolution and an increase in industrial activity, there has been an increase in the utilization of groundwater resources during the last two decades in Andhra Pradesh. The development has also caused a number of problems, such as water table decline, decrease in well yields and seawater intrusion. Although major irrigation projects have contributed to improved agricultural production, the associated problems of waterlogging, salinization and loss of valuable bioresources have led to the gradual degradation of the land, affecting agricultural productivity. Surface water and groundwater have also been polluted in several parts of the State because of untreated discharge of effluents from the industries into nearby streams or open lands. A brief account of the overall scenario of the hydrogeological framework and geo-environmental effects on the groundwater regime in Andhra Pradesh is presented. Possible management practices and conservation methods are suggested. Received: 9 August 1999 · Accepted: 10 July 2000     

Surfaces of zero-velocity in the gravitational field of a pair of interacting galaxies,II

Zero-velocity curves perpendicular to the orbital plane are computed for a close pair of interacting galaxies having density distribution that of a polytrope of indexn=4. An analytical formulation for computing the zero-velocity surfaces is suggested.     

Stability of breakwater defenced by a seaward submerged reef

The stability of a uniformly sloped conventional rubble mound breakwater defenced by a seaward submerged reef is investigated using physical model studies. Regular waves of wide ranging heights and periods are used. Tests are carried out for different spacings between two rubble mound structures (X/d=2.5–13.33) and for different relative heights (h/d=0.625–0.833) and relative widths (B/d=0.25–1.33) of the reef. It is observed that a reef of width (B/d) of 0.6–0.75 constructed at a seaward distance (X/d) of 6.25–8.33 breaks all the incoming waves and dissipates energy and protects the breakwater optimally.