Impacts of changing climate on the hydrology and hydropower production of the Tagus River basin

The Tagus River basin is an ultimately important water source for hydropower production, urban and agricultural water supply in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over‐regulation of the river and construction of new dams, as well as large inter‐basin and intra‐basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate in the catchment, have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further.In this study, we address the effects of projected climate change on the water resources availability in the Tagus River basin and influence of potential changes on hydropower generation of the three important reservoirs in the basin. The catchment‐scale, process‐based eco‐hydrological model soil and water integrated model was set up, calibrated and validated for the entire Tagus River basin, taking into account 15 large reservoirs in the catchment. The future climate projections were selected from those generated within the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. They include five bias‐corrected climatic datasets for the region, obtained from global circulation model runs under two emissions scenario – moderate and extreme ones – and covered the whole century. The results show a strong agreement among model runs in projecting substantial decrease of discharge of the Tagus River discharge and, consequently, a strong decrease in hydropower production under both future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Levels and spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediments from Lenga Estuary, central Chile

The Lenga Estuary is a small brackish wetland located southwest of San Vicente Bay, Region VIII, Chile. Surface sediment from nine sites in the estuary were analysed for PAHs and compared to Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQG). Sediment samples were freeze dried and soxhlet extracted for 16 h using DCM. Identification and quantification was carried out by HPLC. Organic carbon was also determined. Results showed total PAH concentrations ranged from 290 to 6118 (2025 ± 1975) ng g⁻¹ d.w. (2025 ± 1975). Results for organic carbon percentages ranged from 1% to 7%. Statistical analysis showed a significant positive correlation (Pearson test) between organic carbon percentage PAHs. Comparison of contaminant levels and international Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQG) (ERL and ER) suggested that sediment of the Lenga estuary did not show any ecotoxicologial risk for benthic organisms where high levels of PAHs were detected. Monitoring of this and other contaminants is recommended in Chile.     

Applying an Automatic Image-Processing Method to Synoptic Observations

We used an automatic image-processing method to detect solar-activity features observed in white light at the Kislovodsk Solar Station. This technique was applied to automatically or semi-automatically detect sunspots and active regions. The results of this automated recognition were verified with statistical data available from other observatories and revealed a high detection accuracy. We also provide parameters of sunspot areas, of the umbra, and of faculae as observed in Solar Cycle 23 as well as the magnetic flux of these active elements, calculated at the Kislovodsk Solar Station, together with white-light images and magnetograms from the Michaelson Doppler Imager onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO/MDI). The ratio of umbral and total sunspot areas during Solar Cycle 23 is ≈?0.19. The area of sunspots of the leading polarity was approximately 2.5 times the area of sunspots of the trailing polarity.     

Confidence Limits of Evolutionary Synthesis Models

The probabilistic nature of the IMF in stellar systems implies that clusters of the same mass and age do not present the same unique values of their observed parameters. Instead they follow a distribution. We address the study of such distributions in terms of their confidence limits that can be obtained by evolutionary synthesis models. These confidence limits can be understood as the inherent uncertainties of synthesis models. We will compare such confidence limits arising from the discreteness of the number of stars obtained with Monte Carlo simulations with the dispersion resulting from an analytical formalism. We give some examples of the effects on the kinetic energy, V–K, EW(Hβ) and multiwavelength continuum. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Tectonic features of the Lipari–Vulcano complex (Aeolian archipelago,Italy) from 10 years (1996–2006) of GPS data

The tectonic deformation of the Lipari–Vulcano complex, one of the most important active volcanic areas of the Mediterranean region, is studied here through the analysis of 10 years (1996–2006) of GPS data from both three permanent and 13 non‐permanent stations. This area can be considered crucial for the understanding of the interaction between the Eurasian and African plates in the Mediterranean area, and, in general, this work emphasizes a methodological approach, already applied in other areas worldwide ( J. Geophys. Res., 1996, 101 , 27 957 ; J. Geodyn., 1999, 27 , 213 ) where geodetic data and strain parameters maps of critical areas can help to improve our understanding of their geodynamical aspects. In this framework, this study is aimed at providing a kinematic deformation model on the basis of the dense geodetically estimated velocities of the Lipari–Vulcano complex. In particular, the observed deformation pattern can be described by a combination of (1) the main N–S regional compression and (2) a NNE–SSW compression with a small right‐lateral strike slip component acting along a tectonic structure trending N°40W between the two islands. This pattern was inspected through a simplified synthetic model.     

Polynomial chaos expansion for global sensitivity analysis applied to a model of radionuclide migration in a randomly heterogeneous aquifer

We perform global sensitivity analysis (GSA) through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of radionuclide concentration at a given control location in a heterogeneous aquifer, following a release from a near surface repository of radioactive waste. The aquifer hydraulic conductivity is modeled as a stationary stochastic process in space. We examine the uncertainty in the first two (ensemble) moments of the peak concentration, as a consequence of incomplete knowledge of (a) the parameters characterizing the variogram of hydraulic conductivity, (b) the partition coefficient associated with the migrating radionuclide, and (c) dispersivity parameters at the scale of interest. These quantities are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a numerical Monte Carlo framework. This entails solving groundwater flow and transport processes within an ensemble of hydraulic conductivity realizations generated upon sampling the space of the considered random variables. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures to provide an estimate of the role of uncertain parameters on the (ensemble) target moments. Calculation of the indices is performed by employing PCE as a surrogate model of the migration process to reduce the computational burden. We show that the proposed methodology (a) allows identifying the influence of uncertain parameters on key statistical moments of the peak concentration (b) enables extending the number of Monte Carlo iterations to attain convergence of the (ensemble) target moments, and (c) leads to considerable saving of computational time while keeping acceptable accuracy.