Drivers of interannual and intra‐annual variability of dissolved organic carbon concentration in the River Thames between 1884 and 2013

The world's longest record of river water quality (River Thames—130 years) provides a unique opportunity to understand fluvial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations dynamics. Understanding riverine DOC variability through long‐term studies is crucial to capture patterns and drivers influencing sources of DOC at scales relevant for decision making. The Thames basin (United Kingdom) has undergone massive land‐use change, as well as increased urbanisation and population during the period considered. We aimed to investigate the drivers of intra‐annual to interannual DOC variability, assess the variability due to natural and anthropogenic factors, and understand the causes for the increased DOC variability over the period. Two approaches were used to achieve these aims. The first method was singular spectrum analysis, which was used to reconstruct the major oscillatory modes of DOC, hydroclimatic variables, and atmospheric circulation patterns and to visualise the interaction between these variables. The second approach used was generalised additive modelling, which was used to investigate other non‐natural drivers of DOC variability. Our study shows that DOC variability increased by 80% over the data period, with the greatest increase occurring from the beginning of World War II onwards. The primary driver of the increase in DOC variability was the increase in the average value of fluvial DOC over the period of record, which was itself linked to the increase in basin population and diffuse DOC sources to the river due to land‐use and land‐management changes. Seasonal DOC variability was linked to streamflow and temperature. Our study allows to identify drivers of fluvial intra‐annual and interannual DOC variability and therefore empowers actions to reduce high DOC concentrations.     

Drowning history of a Miocene carbonate platform (Zhujiang Formation, South China Sea)

The identification and interpretation of drowning events in the geologic record can aid significantly to the reconstruction of the depositional, tectonic and eustatic history of a study area and often improve reservoir and seal prediction in carbonate rocks. The differentiation between drowned platforms showing a record of continuous deepening and those with a record of exposure followed by rapid deepening remains, however, problematic. The Zhujiang carbonate platform (Liuhua 11-1 field, South China Sea) study shown here provides an example of an integrated approach combining high-resolution geochemistry, microfacies analyses and foraminiferal biostratigraphy in order to improve the reconstruction of environmental conditions prior, during and after platform demise and drowning. The Zhujiang carbonate platform displays the following vertical succession of four facies types i) skeletal grain facies with a miogypsinid/lepidocyclinid-dominated fauna deposited in a moderately deep (< 50 m), oligotrophic back-reef setting; ii) in situ corals in patch-reef facies in an oligotrophic lagoon (< 10 m); iii) rhodoid facies with in situ red algal crusts, dominated by Heterostegina sp. and spiroclypeids, possibly capped by a subaerial exposure surface. Well-rounded rhodoids representing a mesotrophic lagoon dominate the upper portions of the rhodoid facies; iv) pelagic marine shales of the Hanjiang Formation burying the carbonate platform after drowning. This facies succession, in combination with geochemical evidence suggests a deepening-upward trend. This trend might have been interrupted by transient subaerial exposure but no evidence for meteoric diagenesis was found at the drowning unconformity topping the carbonate platform. Instead, microfacies analyses suggest that platform demise may be related to progressive changes in environmental conditions, including increasing nutrient-levels and/or decreasing temperature up-core towards the drowning unconformity. These findings are of significance for those concerned with Miocene carbonate factories and, more specifically, the demise of carbonate platforms in general.     

Projection of low flow conditions in Germany under climate change by combining three RCMs and a regional hydrological model

The present study is aimed to: (a) project future low flow conditions in the five largest river basins in Germany, and (b) to account for the projections uncertainties. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was driven by different regional climate models (REMO, CCLM, and Wettreg) to simulate daily river discharges in each study basin. The 50-year low flow was estimated for the period 1961 to 2000, and its return period was assessed for two scenario periods, 2021–2060 and 2061–2100, using the generalized extreme value distribution. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern, and parts of central Germany after 2061, as suggested by more than or equal to 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until late autumn at the end of this century. The return period of 50-year deficit volume shows a similar temporal and spatial pattern of change as for the low flow, indicating slightly less severe conditions with lower confidence. When compared with flood projections for the same area using the same models, the severer low flows projected in this study appear more pronounced, consistent, and have lower uncertainty.     

Analysis of current trends in climate parameters,river discharge and glaciers in the Aksu River basin (Central Asia)

Abstract

Climate variability and change play a crucial role in the vulnerable system of the Aksu River basin located in Kyrgyzstan and northwest China, providing precious water resources for the intense oasis agriculture of the Xinjiang Province (China). Ubiquitous warming and increase in precipitation (in the lower part of the basin) have been detected. Glaciers in the region are retreating. Seasonal trends in river discharge show an increase. A clear link could be demonstrated between daily temperature and lagged river discharge at two headwater stations in summer. However, the correlation breaks over short periods in the end of summer or beginning of autumn at the Xiehela station, when the high (over 95th percentile) flow peaks caused by the glacier lake outburst floods of the Merzbacher Lake occur. This feature is a challenge for the climate impact assessment in the region, as these regular outbursts have to be represented in the projections for the future as well.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Biogeochemical effects of disturbance in shallow water sediment by macroalgae harvesting boats

In the shallow water of Orbetello lagoon, macroalgae harvesting boats produce sediment disturbance. To evaluate the effect of this, during 2001-2002, a trial study was carried out in the lagoon in order to: verify seasonal and diurnal trends in nutrients and estimate the quantity of resuspended organic sediment. An unbalanced and balanced ANOVA (one and two way) analysis was applied. The disturbance did not produce strong and lasting eutrophication effects. In the seasonal survey, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) showed significant decreases in disturbed areas at the end of the trial, while the control area showed a constant, significant increase. Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and phosphorus (DOP) significantly increased everywhere. In disturbed areas, sediment redox (Eh((NHE))) increased and porosity values decreased, contrary to the control area. Total organic carbon (TOC) remained unchanged in disturbed areas, but increased in the control area, where the C:P ration increased. The fall-out of sedimentary material resuspended by boat action for as far as 50 m from the boat route, was 189 g(dw)m(-2) made up mainly of organic matter. This disturbance could be the cause of change in vegetation in the lagoon.     

Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&amp;D

Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be cost reductions resulting from R&D and report median cost reductions around 20 % for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the improvements associated to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. We conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.     

Beyond REDD+ readiness: land-use governance to reduce deforestation in Peru

Peru contains the fourth largest area of tropical forest in the world, yet faces a worsening net deforestation rate. In 2008, to address this threat, the national government announced its ambition to reduce deforestation to zero by 2021. Via literature review and key informant interviews, this study assess two years of REDD+ readiness preparations according to six readiness functions. A mixed pattern of outcomes emerge. Although significant advances were made by various local-level initiatives, national-level efforts continue to struggle. Three crucial challenges persist: (1) greater involvement and coordination of ministries and government agencies associated with REDD+ planning, (2) better understanding of deforestation agents and drivers, and (3) integration of REDD+ policies into national and regional plans, which includes clarification of safeguard procedures and design of incentive mechanisms. Integrated land use planning is presented as a platform to foster dialogue that helps to reconcile divergent stakeholder perspectives, coordinate changes to land use, and resolve overlapping land rights.

Policy relevance

This article presents the outcomes of a multi-dimensional assessment of the REDD+ readiness process in Peru. The six key functions in the analytical framework provide the opportunity to evaluate the process in an integrated and systematic manner and highlights the persistence of complex, transversal governance challenges across diverse economic sectors and government agencies. Research findings also reveal a need for policy change and continued investment to ensure success of the national process in Peru. Strong leadership is needed to generate consensus in cross-sectoral negotiations and to establish coordinated land governance and monitoring mechanisms.