Global sensitivity analysis through polynomial chaos expansion of a basin-scale geochemical compaction model

We present a model-driven uncertainty quantification methodology based on sparse grid sampling techniques in the context of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (GPCE) approximation of a basin-scale geochemical evolution scenario. The approach is illustrated through a one-dimensional example involving the process of quartz cementation in sandstones and the resulting effects on the dynamics of the vertical distribution of porosity, pressure, and temperature. The proposed theoretical framework and computational tools allow performing an efficient and accurate global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the system states (i.e., porosity, temperature, pressure, and fluxes) in the presence of uncertain key mechanical and geochemical model parameters as well as boundary conditions. GSA is grounded on the use of the variance-based Sobol indices. These allow discriminating the relative weights of uncertain quantities on the global model variance and can be computed through the GPCE of the model response. Evaluation of the GPCE of the model response is performed through the implementation of a sparse grid approximation technique in the space of the selected uncertain quantities. GPCE is then be employed as a surrogate model of the system states to quantify uncertainty propagation through the model in terms of the probability distribution (and its statistical moments) of target system states.     

Feeding of Aurelia sp. (Scyphozoa) and links to the microbial food web

The impact of the scyphomedusa Aurelia sp. on planktonic assemblages was experimentally studied in enclosures incubated in situ in the sea lake of Mljet Island (Big Lake, Southern Adriatic), where jellyfish are present throughout the year. In situ feeding experiments using plankton at natural densities indicated a reduction in abundance for small calanoid and cyclopoid copepods, copepodites, nauplii and ciliates in the presence of Aurelia sp. In addition to direct predatory pressure, Aurelia sp. exerted an indirect cascading effect on autotrophic and heterotrophic microbial plankton. Phytoplankton biomass increases of up to 0.5 μg C·l^?1·h^?1 were mainly related to 19′‐hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin‐ and 19′‐butanoyloxyfucoxanthin‐containing phytoplankton. Bacterial production was about twice as high in the presence of Aurelia sp. and biomass was also consistently higher. It appears that the top‐down effect of predation along with material release by Aurelia sp. results in increases in microbial biomass and production.     

Yield and catch changes in a Mediterranean small tuna trap: a warming change effect?

Since the 17th century, the Tonnarella of Camogli, a small tuna trap, has been used to catch pelagic fish along the western coast of the Portofino Promontory (Ligurian Sea, Northwestern Mediterranean). The availability of long‐term datasets on fish yields (1950–1974 and 1996–2011), with information related to the seawater temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has allowed us to study the qualitative and quantitative changes in fish yields in the last decade and the possible relationships with the seasonal anomalies of temperature that have occurred in the Ligurian Sea. In 1950–1974, yields remained relatively constant over time (average of 35.6 ± 8.7 t·year^?1). From 1996 through 2011, yields were high (42.9 ± 15.9 t·year^?1) but inconsistent with strong annual variability in catches. The primary catches are Seriola dumerili, Auxis rochei, Trachurus spp. and Sarda sarda. Changes in species composition have occurred as well: S. dumerili, Sardinella sp. and Belone belone have appeared recently. Moreover, a significant decrease in the boreal scombroid (Scomber scombrus) and an increase of warm‐temperate carangids and other typically Southern Mediterranean species such as Coryphaena hippurus and Sphyraena viridensis, appear to be linked to the warming of the surface water layer, particularly evident in the Ligurian Sea, for the last 10 years. The analysis of this kind of trend may be a powerful tool for assessing structural changes of the pelagic fish community in the Ligurian Sea (Northwestern Mediterranean).     

Estimation of net ecosystem metabolism of seagrass meadows in the coastal waters of the East Sea and Black Sea using the noninvasive eddy covariance technique

We measured the community-scale metabolism of seagrass meadows in Bulgaria (Byala [BY]) and Korea (Hoopo Bay [HP]) to understand their ecosystem function in coastal waters. A noninvasive in situ eddy covariance technique was applied to estimate net O₂ flux in the seagrass meadows. From the high-quality and high-resolution time series O₂ data acquired over > 24 h, the O₂ flux driven by turbulence was extracted at 15-min intervals. The spectrum analysis of vertical flow velocity and O₂ concentration clearly showed well-developed turbulence characteristics in the inertial subrange region. The hourly averaged net O₂ fluxes per day ranged from -474 to 326 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1 (-19 ± 41 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1) at BY and from -74 to 482 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1 (31 ± 17 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1) at HP. The net O₂ production rapidly responded to photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and showed a good relationship between production and irradiance (P-I curve). The hysteresis pattern of P-I relationships during daytime also suggested increasing heterotrophic respiration in the afternoon. With the flow velocity between 3.30 and 6.70 cm s^-1, the community metabolism during daytime and nighttime was significantly increased by 20 times and 5 times, respectively. The local hydrodynamic characteristics may be vital to determining the efficiency of community photosynthesis. The net ecosystem metabolism at BY was estimated to be -17 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1, which was assessed as heterotrophy. However, that at HP was 36 mmol O₂ m^-2 d^-1, which suggested an autotrophic state.     

Topological changes of the photospheric magnetic field inside active regions: A prelude to flares?

The detection of magnetic field variations as a signature of flaring activity is one of the main goals in solar physics. Past efforts gave apparently no unambiguous observations of systematic changes. In the present study, we discuss recent results from observations that scaling laws of turbulent current helicity inside a given flaring active region change in response to large flares in that active region. Such changes can be related to the evolution of current structures by a simple geometrical argument, which has been tested using high Reynolds number direct numerical simulations of the MHD equations. Interpretation of the observed data within this picture indicates that the change in scaling behavior of the current helicity seems to be associated with a topological reorganization of the footpoint of the magnetic field loops, namely with the dissipation of small scales structures in turbulent media.     

Age and palynological characteristic of the Dongning Formation (Eastern Heilongjiang,China)

The taxonomic composition of the palynological assemblage of the Dongning Formation is supplemented. The palynological assemblage corresponds to those from the Lipovtsy Formation (Aptian) in the Razdolnaya Basin of Primorye (Russia) and the Muling Formation (Aptian) in the Jixi Basin of eastern Heilongjiang (China). It is found that the age of the Dongning Formation is Aptian. The palynological assemblage is characterized by dominance of spores of Gleicheniaceae; they are accompanied by spores of Cyatheaceae. The most important feature of the palynological assemblage of the Dongning Formation is the presence of angiosperm pollen (Tricolpites sp., T. micromunus, T. vulgaris, Retitricolpites georgiensis, R. vulgaris, Clavatipollenites hughesii, Quercites sparsus, Fraxiniopollenites variabilis).     

Drivers of interannual and intra‐annual variability of dissolved organic carbon concentration in the River Thames between 1884 and 2013

The world's longest record of river water quality (River Thames—130 years) provides a unique opportunity to understand fluvial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations dynamics. Understanding riverine DOC variability through long‐term studies is crucial to capture patterns and drivers influencing sources of DOC at scales relevant for decision making. The Thames basin (United Kingdom) has undergone massive land‐use change, as well as increased urbanisation and population during the period considered. We aimed to investigate the drivers of intra‐annual to interannual DOC variability, assess the variability due to natural and anthropogenic factors, and understand the causes for the increased DOC variability over the period. Two approaches were used to achieve these aims. The first method was singular spectrum analysis, which was used to reconstruct the major oscillatory modes of DOC, hydroclimatic variables, and atmospheric circulation patterns and to visualise the interaction between these variables. The second approach used was generalised additive modelling, which was used to investigate other non‐natural drivers of DOC variability. Our study shows that DOC variability increased by 80% over the data period, with the greatest increase occurring from the beginning of World War II onwards. The primary driver of the increase in DOC variability was the increase in the average value of fluvial DOC over the period of record, which was itself linked to the increase in basin population and diffuse DOC sources to the river due to land‐use and land‐management changes. Seasonal DOC variability was linked to streamflow and temperature. Our study allows to identify drivers of fluvial intra‐annual and interannual DOC variability and therefore empowers actions to reduce high DOC concentrations.     

Beyond REDD+ readiness: land-use governance to reduce deforestation in Peru

Peru contains the fourth largest area of tropical forest in the world, yet faces a worsening net deforestation rate. In 2008, to address this threat, the national government announced its ambition to reduce deforestation to zero by 2021. Via literature review and key informant interviews, this study assess two years of REDD+ readiness preparations according to six readiness functions. A mixed pattern of outcomes emerge. Although significant advances were made by various local-level initiatives, national-level efforts continue to struggle. Three crucial challenges persist: (1) greater involvement and coordination of ministries and government agencies associated with REDD+ planning, (2) better understanding of deforestation agents and drivers, and (3) integration of REDD+ policies into national and regional plans, which includes clarification of safeguard procedures and design of incentive mechanisms. Integrated land use planning is presented as a platform to foster dialogue that helps to reconcile divergent stakeholder perspectives, coordinate changes to land use, and resolve overlapping land rights.

Policy relevance

This article presents the outcomes of a multi-dimensional assessment of the REDD+ readiness process in Peru. The six key functions in the analytical framework provide the opportunity to evaluate the process in an integrated and systematic manner and highlights the persistence of complex, transversal governance challenges across diverse economic sectors and government agencies. Research findings also reveal a need for policy change and continued investment to ensure success of the national process in Peru. Strong leadership is needed to generate consensus in cross-sectoral negotiations and to establish coordinated land governance and monitoring mechanisms.     

Comparison of wind and wave measurements and models in the Western Mediterranean Sea

We have hindcast the wind and wave conditions in the Mediterranean Sea for two one month periods. Four different meteorological models and three different wave models have been used. The results have been compared with satellite and buoy wind and wave observations.Several conclusions concerning both the instruments and the models have been derived. The quality of both wind and wave results has been assessed. Close to the coasts high resolution, nested wave models are required for sufficient reliability.A wave threshold analysis suggests a sufficient reliability only off the coast, with a substantial decrease for low wave heights.