Validating the KAGIS black‐box GIS‐based model in a Mediterranean karst aquifer: Case of study of Mela aquifer (SE Spain)

Karst Aquifer GIS‐based model (KAGIS model) is developed and applied to Mela aquifer, a small karst aquifer located in a Mediterranean region (SE Spain). This model considers different variables, such as precipitation, land use, surface slope and lithology, and their geographical heterogeneity to calculate both, the run‐off coefficients and the fraction of precipitation which contributes to fill the soil water reservoir existing above the aquifer. Evapotranspiration uptakes deplete water, exclusively, from this soil water reservoir and aquifer recharge occurs when water in the soil reservoir exceeds the soil field capacity. The proposed model also obtains variations of the effective porosity in a vertical profile, an intrinsic consequence of the karstification processes. A new proposal from the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index, adapted to arid environments, is presented and employed to evaluate the model's ability to predict the water table oscillations. The uncertainty in the model parameters is determined by the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation method. Afterwards, when KAGIS is calibrated, wavelet analysis is applied to the resulting data in order to evaluate the variability in the aquifer behaviour. Wavelet analysis reveals that the rapid hydrogeological response, typical of a wide variety of karst systems, is the prevailing feature of Mela aquifer. This study proves that KAGIS is a useful tool to quantify recharge and discharge rates of karst aquifers and can be effectively applied to develop a proper management of water resources in Mediterranean areas.     

The climatic impact of supervolcanic ash blankets

Supervolcanoes are large caldera systems that can expel vast quantities of ash, volcanic gases in a single eruption, far larger than any recorded in recent history. These super-eruptions have been suggested as possible catalysts for long-term climate change and may be responsible for bottlenecks in human and animal populations. Here, we consider the previously neglected climatic effects of a continent-sized ash deposit with a high albedo and show that a decadal climate forcing is expected. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) to simulate the effect of an ash blanket from Yellowstone volcano, USA, covering much of North America. Reflectivity measurements of dry volcanic ash show albedo values as high as snow, implying that the effects of an ash blanket would be severe. The modeling results indicate major disturbances to the climate, particularly to oscillatory patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Atmospheric disruptions would continue for decades after the eruption due to extended ash blanket longevity. The climatic response to an ash blanket is not significant enough to instigate a change to stadial periods at present day boundary conditions, though this is one of several impacts associated with a super-eruption which may induce long-term climatic change.     

Study of parallel diffusion of energetic particles in the interplanetary medium using spacecraft data at 1 and 5 AU

Energetic particle (1–100 MeV) pitch angle scattering in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is studied using spacecraft magnetometer data at 1 AU (IMP 7 and HEOS 2) and at 5 AU (Pioneer 10). Particle trajectories are followed by a computer simulation of their movement in a realistic model of the IMF. Determination of the pitch angle diffusion coefficient at 1 AU (D ) leads to a parallel mean free path which is roughly independent of particle energy, 0.03 AU. At the lowest energy our result is at least a factor of 3 larger than the predictions of quasi linear theory. Results at 5 AU lead to a radial mean free path which is between 2 to 6 times smaller than at 1 AU, probably indicating a greater importance for perpendicular diffusion at large heliodistances. In fact a roughly constant radial mean free path ( _r 0.01 AU) is obtained when the contribution of perpendicular diffusion at 5 AU is taken into account (Moussaset al., 1981).     

Ecological response to hurricane events in the Pamlico Sound system, North Carolina, and implications for assessment and management in a regime of increased frequency

Since the mid 1990s, the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions have experienced a dramatic increase in the number of hurricane landfalls. In eastern North Carolina alone, eight hurricances have affected the coast in the past 9 years. These storms have exhibited individualistic hydrologic, nutrient, and sediment loading effects and represent a formidable challenge to nutrient management aimed at reducing eutrophication in the Pamlico Sound and its estuarine tributaries. Different rainfall amounts among hurricanes lead to variable freshwater and nutrient discharge and variable nutrient, organic matter, and sediment enrichment. These enrichments differentially affected physical and chemical properties (salinity, water residence time, transparency, stratification, dissolved oxygen), phytoplankton primary production, and phytoplankton community composition. Contrasting ecological responses were accompanied, by changes in nutrient and oxygen cycling, habitat, and higher trophic levels, including different direct effects on fish populations. Floodwaters from the two largest hurricances, Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999), exerted, multi-month to multi-annual effects on hydrology, nutrient loads, productivity, and biotic composition. Relatively low rainfall coastal hurricanes like Isabel (2003) and Ophelia (2005) caused strong vertical mixing and storm surges, but relatively minor hydrologic and nutrient effects. Both hydrologic loading and wind forcing are important drivers and must be integrated with nutrient loading in assessing short-term and long-term ecological effects of these storms. These climatic forcings cannot be managed but should be considered in the development of water quality management strategies for these and other large estuarine ecosystems faced with increasing frequencies and intensities of hurricane activity.     

Closure of the Panama Seaway during the Pliocene: implications for climate and Northern Hemisphere glaciation

The “Panama Hypothesis” states that the gradual closure of the Panama Seaway, between 13 million years ago (13 Ma) and 2.6 Ma, led to decreased mixing of Atlantic and Pacific water Masses, the formation of North Atlantic Deep water and strengthening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, increased temperatures and evaporation in the North Atlantic, increased precipitation in Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes, culminating in the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) during the Pliocene, 3.2–2.7 Ma. Here we test this hypothesis using a fully coupled, fully dynamic ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) with boundary conditions specific to the Pliocene, and a high resolution dynamic ice sheet model. We carry out two GCM simulations with “closed” and “open” Panama Seaways, and use the simulated climatologies to force the ice sheet model. We find that the models support the “Panama Hypothesis” in as much as the closure of the seaway results in a more intense Atlantic thermohaline circulation, enhanced precipitation over Greenland and North America, and ultimately larger ice sheets. However, the volume difference between the ice sheets in the “closed” and “open” configurations is small, equivalent to about 5 cm of sea level. We conclude that although the closure of the Panama Seaway may have slightly enhanced or advanced the onset of NHG, it was not a major forcing mechanism. Future work must fully couple the ice sheet model and GCM, and investigate the role of orbital and CO₂ effects in controlling NHG.     

Geological evaluation of climate General Circulation Models and model implications for Mesozoic cloud cover

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are currently used to predict future global change. However, the robustness of GCMs can, and should, be evaluated by their ability to simulate past climate regimes. Their success in ‘retrodiction’ can then be assessed by reference to the testimony of the geological record. Geological evidence provides a database which can be used in the estimation of sea surface temperatures and other proxy data useful in palaeoclimatic studies. These data can then be used to refine the prescribed boundary conditions for running GCMs themselves. Results of modelling experiments confirm a generally warmer Mesozoic earth with arid tropics and convective rainfall higher over the oceans than at present. Circum-polar wetlands are also indicated. Modelled cloudiness is also higher in the Mesozoic, contributing to greenhouse conditions and possibly influencing terrestrial biomes and marine ecosystems.     

Comparison of mid-Pliocene climate predictions produced by the HadAM3 and GCMAM3 General Circulation Models

The mid-Pliocene warm period (ca. 3 to 3.3 million years ago) has become an important interval of time for palaeoclimate modelling exercises, with a large number of studies published during the last decade. However, there has been no attempt to assess the degree of model dependency of the results obtained. Here we present an initial comparison of mid-Pliocene climatologies produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMAM3 and HadAM3). Whilst both models are consistent in the simulation of broad-scale differences in mid-Pliocene surface air temperature and total precipitation rates, significant variation is noted on regional and local scales. There are also significant differences in the model predictions of total cloud cover. A terrestrial data/model comparison, facilitated by the BIOME 4 model and a new data set of Piacenzian Stage land cover [Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Hill, D.J., (2008). A new global biome reconstruction and data model comparison for the Middle Pliocene. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17, 432-447, doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00381.x] and combined with the use of Kappa statistics, indicates that HadAM3-based biome predictions provide a closer fit to proxy data in the mid to high-latitudes. However, GCMAM3-based biomes in the tropics provide the closest fit to proxy data.     

Mesozoic climates: General circulation models and the rock record

General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses. They are objective in character. However, they tend to require powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless, it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.). GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols). They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites. Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection, cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data. The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible changes in future climate.

The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were warm (8 °C or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew 10° of latitude further north and south than at the present time. The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6 °C or more, giving more atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrological cycle. Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character, often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved. The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous, and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes and other climatically sensitive facies for that time.

The message from the geological record is clear. Through the Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states, usually baldly referred to as “greenhouse” and “icehouse”, although these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes. Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent rate of climatic change is exceptional).