Engineering geological data in support of municipal land use planning—a case study in Analandia, southeast Brazil

This paper presents a method for transforming the information of an engineering geological map into useful information for non-specialists involved in land-use planning. The method consists of classifying the engineering geological units in terms of land use capability and identifying the legal and the geologic restrictions that apply in the study area. Both informations are then superimposed over the land use and a conflict areas map is created. The analysis of these data leads to the identification of existing and forthcoming land use conflicts and enables the proposal of planning measures on a regional and local scale. The map for the regional planning was compiled at a 1:50,000 scale and encompasses the whole municipal land area where uses are mainly rural. The map for the local planning was compiled at a 1:10,000 scale and encompasses the urban area. Most of the classification and operations on maps used spatial analyst tools available in the Geographical Information System. The regional studies showed that the greater part of Analandia’s territory presents appropriate land uses. The local-scale studies indicate that the majority of the densely occupied urban areas are in suitable land. Although the situation is in general positive, municipal policies should address the identified and expected land use conflicts, so that it can be further improved.     

High-resolution historical records from Pettaquamscutt River basin sediments: 1. Pb and varve chronologies validate record of Cs released by the Chernobyl accident

Cesium-137 derived from the explosion of the Chernobyl reactor in 1986 was preserved in anoxic sediments from a coastal environment in southern Rhode Island. Although the radioactive plume was detected in surface air samples at several locations in the United States, this is the first known record of a Chernobyl ¹³⁷Cs peak in sediments from North America. The inventory of Chernobyl ¹³⁷Cs that was preserved in the Pettaquamscutt River is small compared to European counterparts and should only be detectable for the next 15-20 yr. However, the presence of two ¹³⁷Cs peaks (1963 and 1987) identifies a well-dated segment of the sediment column that could be exploited in understanding the decomposition and preservation of terrestrial and aquatic organic matter. Different methods for calculating the ²¹⁰Pb chronology were also evaluated in this study and checked against independent varve counting. The end result is a detailed chronology of a site well suited for reconstruction of historical records of environmental change.     

Analysis of physical factors of climate and bioclimate and their effects on almonds production to increase the economy in Hebron area of Palestine

For the 1993–2009 period, we analyzed the relationship between almond yield and three climatic variables (mean annual temperature, soil water reserve, and precipitation), and four bioclimatic variables (annual ombrothermic index, water deficit, simple continentality index, and compensated thermicity index), for one major Hebron crop (soft and hard almonds). Moreover, we obtained data almond production from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, while the climate data from the Palestinian meteorological station during the study period from 1993 to 2009, and analysis is it by using bioclimatic classification of the Earth of Salvador Rivas-Martinez to study the relationship between the almond yield and climate and bioclimate factors (variables). The climatic and bioclimate variables of greatest importance to almond were used to develop regressions analysis relating yield to climatic conditions. Hebron was positively affected by annual ombrothermic index, simple continentality index, precipitation, water soil reserve, and mean annual temperature, but negatively affected by water deficit, with a large proportion of the variance explained by axis F1 (72.48%), F2 (22.38%), and axes F1and F2 (94. 86%). However, in order to produce a high amount of almonds and quality, it can be grown in the regions of the mesomediterranean region, with the value of annual ombrothemic index more than 3, compensated thermicity index between 220/220 to 350/350, simple continentality index between 14 and 20, and in areas where the average annual temperature is between 15 and 20 °C.     

A New Appraisal of Sri Lankan BB Zircon as a Reference Material for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb Geochronology and Lu‐Hf Isotope Tracing

A potential zircon reference material (BB zircon) for laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) U‐Pb geochronology and Hf isotope geochemistry is described. A batch of twenty zircon megacrysts (0.5–1.5 cm³) from Sri Lanka was studied. Within‐grain rare earth element (REE) compositions are largely homogeneous, albeit with some variation seen between fractured and homogeneous domains. Excluding fractured cathodoluminescence bright domains, the variation in U content for all analysed crystals ranged from 227 to 368 μg g^?1 and the average Th/U ratios were between 0.20 and 0.47. The Hf isotope composition (0.56–0.84 g/100 g Hf) is homogeneous within and between the grains – mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf of 0.281674 ± 0.000018 (2s). The calculated alpha dose of 0.59 × 10¹⁸ g^?1 for a number of BB grains falls within the trend of previously studied, untreated zircon samples from Sri Lanka. Aliquots of the same crystal (analysed by ID‐TIMS in four different laboratories) gave consistent U‐Pb ages with excellent measurement reproducibility (0.1–0.4% RSD). Interlaboratory assessment (by LA‐ICP‐MS) from individual crystals returned results that are within uncertainty equivalent to the TIMS ages. Finally, we report on within‐ and between‐grain homogeneity of the oxygen isotope systematic of four BB crystals (13.16‰ VSMOW).     

Slab–mantle flow interaction: influence on subduction dynamics and duration

We investigate the influence of mantle flow relative to the lithosphere on subduction dynamics. We use 2D thermo‐mechanical models assuming incompressible non‐Newtonian fluid rheology. Different mantle flow velocities consistent with absolute plate motion models are tested, as well as both directions of flow, either sustaining or opposing slab dip. The effects of different inflow/outflow velocity profiles, slab strengths and upper–lower mantle viscosity contrasts are also evaluated. Slab dip deviations between models with opposite mantle flow directions range from 37° for relatively strong slabs (η_max = 10²⁵ Pa s) to 50° for weaker slabs (η_max = 10²⁴ Pa s), accounting for a significant amount of natural slab dip variability. For imposed mantle flow supporting the slab, the initial stage of slab steepening is followed by a stage of continuous slab dip decrease. This slab shallowing eventually leads to mantle wedge closure, subduction cessation and slab break‐off, possibly driving subduction flips.     

Hybrid Model for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting: A Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Approach

Air pollution is usually driven by a complex combination of factors in which meteorology, physical obstacles, and interactions between pollutants play significant roles. Considering the characteristics of urban atmospheric pollution and its consequent impacts on human health and quality of life, forecasting models have emerged as an effective tool to identify and forecast air pollution episodes. The overall objective of the present work is to produce forecasts of pollutant concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts. Therefore, a new approach was developed based on a two-step methodology. Firstly, neural network models were used to generate short-term temporal forecasts based on air pollution and meteorology data. The accuracy of those forecasts was then evaluated against an independent set of historical data. Secondly, local conditional distributions of the observed values with respect to the predicted values were used to perform spatial stochastic simulations for the entire geographic area of interest. With this approach the spatio-temporal dispersion of a pollutant can be predicted, while accounting for both the temporal uncertainty in the forecast (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. Based on an analysis of the results, our proposed method offers a highly promising alternative for the characterization of urban air quality.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Household recovery strategies in Longmen Mountain area,Sichuan, China,following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster

After the Wenchuan earthquake, the overall post-reconstruction of the affected area was completed in 2 years with significant achievements in a top-down fashion. However, the secondary large-scale mass movements and floods that followed the earthquake have shattered mountain settlements and resulted in serious loss of life and property over the last ten years. Local people have taken their own initiative for house reconstruction and recovery. Having taken the tremendous government-driven reconstruction into consideration, the current study aims to understand the contribution of bottom-up approach in whole reconstruction process in Jianjiang River, Longmen Mountain Town of Sichuan, China. This study reveals that in the process of individual rebuilding, local households have tried to construct houses by using more contemporary structures and local resources to rebuild smaller buildings. Such reconstruction activities have changed their lifestyle and source of income to cope with future disasters and adapt with the post-disaster recovery process. Rural households shifted their income sources from tourism to labour migration while revitalizing farming for food and additional income. More than half of residents have no worry about the risk of disasters in reconstruction areas. The bottom-up adaptation can be more sustainable in Longmen Mountain area and provide a reference for other rural areas under recovery after disasters.