Yield Forecasting of Spring Maize Using Remote Sensing and Crop Modeling in Faisalabad-Punjab Pakistan

Real time, accurate and reliable estimation of maize yield is valuable to policy makers in decision making. The current study was planned for yield estimation of spring maize using remote sensing and crop modeling. In crop modeling, the CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated with the field experiment data and after calibration and evaluation, this model was used to forecast maize yield. A Field survey of 64 farm was also conducted in Faisalabad to collect data on initial field conditions and crop management data. These data were used to forecast maize yield using crop model at farmers’ field. While in remote sensing, peak season Landsat 8 images were classified for landcover classification using machine learning algorithm. After classification, time series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) of the surveyed 64 farms were calculated. Principle component analysis were run to correlate the indicators with maize yield. The selected LSTs and NDVIs were used to develop yield forecasting equations using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Calibrated and evaluated results of CERES-Maize showed the mean absolute % error (MAPE) of 0.35–6.71% for all recorded variables. In remote sensing all machine learning algorithms showed the accuracy greater the 90%, however support vector machine (SVM-radial basis) showed the higher accuracy of 97%, that was used for classification of maize area. The accuracy of area estimated through SVM-radial basis was 91%, when validated with crop reporting service. Yield forecasting results of crop model were precise with RMSE of 255 kg ha^?1, while remote sensing showed the RMSE of 397 kg ha^?1. Overall strength of relationship between estimated and actual grain yields were good with R² of 0.94 in both techniques. For regional yield forecasting remote sensing could be used due greater advantages of less input dataset and if focus is to assess specific stress, and interaction of plant genetics to soil and environmental conditions than crop model is very useful tool.     

黄豆脲酶诱导碳酸钙沉淀多变量试验研究

植物源脲酶诱导碳酸钙沉淀（enzyme induced carbonate precipitation,简称EICP）可以显著改善砂土的工程力学特性,但在具体操作时,参数取值无对应规范,固化效果有待提升。基于黄豆脲酶,研究了温度、脲酶浓度、尿素浓度、钙浓度、pH值、钙源种类等变量对脲酶活性与碳酸钙沉淀的影响,并进行了沉淀物（碳酸钙晶体）的扫描式电子显微镜（scanning electron microscope,简称SEM）与X射线衍射（X-ray diffraction,简称XRD）测试,在此基础上开展了黄豆脲酶固化砂的无侧限抗压强度与固化效果试验研究。结果表明：脲酶活性随脲酶浓度的增加而线性增长,但存在温度阈值,温度超过阈值后,脲酶将完全失活,且阈值随脲酶浓度的增大而降低;尿素浓度与pH值共同影响脲酶活性,二者存在一个最优组合,当尿素浓度在0.1～1.0 mol/L时最优pH值为7,当尿素浓度在1.0～1.5 mol/L时最优pH值为8。脲酶是沉淀反应的催化剂,脲酶浓度越高,反应越完全,碳酸钙沉淀率越高;尿素与钙溶液则主要通过掺入量影响碳酸钙沉淀量,掺量比例宜为1:1,且二者浓度与pH值可通过影响脲酶活性来影响碳酸钙的沉淀情况;不同钙源对碳酸钙沉淀量的影响幅度不大。不同钙源沉淀碳酸钙晶体的成分与密度基本相同,但晶体结构差异较大,氯化钙沉淀碳酸钙晶体以块状为主,表面分布球状、类球状晶体,胶结面大,可作为EICP技术中较为理想的钙源。基于黄豆脲酶和氯化钙钙源固化砂的无侧限抗压强度约为掺粉煤灰砂样的6倍,通过SEM图像可发现,沉淀碳酸钙晶体包裹并黏结砂粒成为整体,固化效果非常理想。     

Groundwater circulation in the allochthonous limestone units between Lake Girdev and Kazanpınarı Spring, Antalya, southwestern Turkey

 The aim of the study is to investigate the interaction between waters of Lake Girdev and groundwater in the allochthonous limestone units exposed in the area between Lake Girdev and Kazanpınarı Spring, southwestern Turkey. The features analyzed include the flow direction and apparent groundwater velocity, their relationship with Lake Girdev, and the effect of lithological and structural features on the groundwater circulation. The results of a fluorescein tracer test indicate that groundwater flows east-northeast and the apparent flow velocity ranges from 26.2 to 35.6 m h^–1 between the injection site and various observation points. Tritium data suggest that the water of Lake Girdev and groundwater are probably similar in age, and oxygen-18 isotope data indicate that water derived from Lake Girdev is the main source of recharge to the aquifer. The aquifer is fed not only by Lake Girdev but also by rainfall percolating through allochthonous limestones; together, these provide the discharge of springs in Elmalı Polje. The permeability of the allochthonous limestone aquifer has been enhanced as a result of jointing and faulting. Received, June 1997 / Revised, June 1998, March 1999 / Accepted, July 1999     

天山北麓黄土记录的30万年以来古气候演变

对天山北麓黄土分布特点与形成年代的研究,以及以此为载体应用各代用指标的古气候重建已经取得了不少进展。在前人工作的基础上,选取黄土—古土壤序列分明,底部S3古土壤发育的鹿角湾剖面为主要研究对象,结合天山北麓的其他多个典型黄土剖面,运用色度、粒度、常量地球化学元素含量和环境磁学参数等指标,探讨大约30万年以来的古气候演变。鹿角湾黄土实验结果显示,各古气候代用指标随剖面深度变化与黄土—古土壤更替大概一致,剖面上部（L2及其以上）与下部区别明显。粒度分布揭示黄土物源输入主要受控于两股不同风系,随黄土古土壤的更替两者的主次地位发生变化。环境磁学实验结果显示,剖面下部磁性弱,频率磁化率低,但古土壤层稳定单畴含量较高,反映湿润成壤环境下超顺磁亚铁磁性矿物溶解或转化为弱磁性矿物;剖面上部比剖面下部的磁性要强,磁性矿物粒度更粗;S0为磁性成壤增强模式,与其他黄土古土壤层不同。再结合其他典型剖面的记录,可以推断研究区30万年以来有干旱化的趋势,但S2发育阶段总体上可能比S3发育阶段略为湿润,这一阶段之后气候明显变干,S1发育阶段明显比S2与S3发育阶段干旱,干旱化趋势一直保持至全新世开始之前。     

Annual and monthly rainfall data generation schemes

Synthetic annual and monthly rainfall data series are generated by using autoregressive (AR) processes, Thomas-Fiering (TF) model, method of fragments (F) and its modified version (MF), two-tier (TT) model, and a newly developed wavelet (W) approach. It is seen that the W approach is as well in preserving the statistical behavior of the observed data series as the classical annual and monthly hydrological data generation schemes used in this study. The W approach is found even better in replacing some particular characteristics such as the mean of the sequence and correlation between the successive months in the series. It is, therefore, proposed as a new annual and monthly hydrological data generation scheme.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

东秦岭卢氏盆地中始新世沉积-充填过程及其驱动机制

秦岭山间盆地发育的厚层新生代沉积,对于认识秦岭新生代地貌演化及东亚环境变化具有重要意义。但是,对东秦岭地区众多中-新生代山间断陷盆地的沉积-充填过程及其记录的构造、气候信息研究不够。本研究对东秦岭卢氏盆地中始新世河湖相沉积展开沉积学与物源分析,测试了27个层位的碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄。盆地中始新世地层自下而上可划分为张家村组、卢氏组和大峪组。张家村组为冲积扇-河流相沉积,卢氏组为浅湖-半深湖相沉积,大峪组为河流-冲积扇相沉积。张家村组和卢氏组锆石U-Pb年龄均以200~250 Ma（T-J）和400~500 Ma（D-S-O-ϵ）为主要特征峰,700~1000 Ma（Pt₃）为次要峰,部分样品具有1800 Ma（Pt₁）、2500 Ma（Ar₃）的年龄峰值,通过与周边地区地质资料比对,认为张家村组、卢氏组沉积物主要来自于相对远源的北秦岭造山带和南秦岭造山带。大峪组下部锆石U-Pb年龄以1000~1100 Ma（Pt₂）、1800 Ma（Pt₁）和2300 Ma（Pt₁）为特征峰值,物源转变成以近源的北秦岭造山带和华北克拉通南缘两个构造单元为主。近源的物质贡献先升高后降低,可能与河流溯源侵蚀作用有关。大峪组上部地层沉积环境转变为冲积扇,130 Ma（K）的锆石占比加大,可能与东南方栾川地区晚中生代花岗岩的抬升-剥露有关。卢氏盆地中始新世河湖相沉积序列揭示了卢氏古湖从形成到消亡的过程和山-盆地貌侵蚀、搬运和堆积的历史,并记录了秦岭山脉两期区域隆升事件。

     

土石混合体边坡细观特征对滑面形成影响研究

土石混合体作为一种典型的浅表层堆积体,常引发不同规模的滑坡灾害。本文通过对比土石混合体在室内大型直剪和离散元(PFC^2D)数值模拟直剪条件下剪切带厚度随含石量和上覆压力的变化特征,以期进一步揭示影响土石混合体剪切带厚度的主要控制因素。试验结果显示,室内试验中土石混合体的剪切带厚度主要受含石量的影响,其次为上覆压力,受块石尺寸的影响不明显。剪切带厚度随含石量从0增加到50%时表现为增大的趋势,随含石量的继续增大而表现为减小的趋势。但上覆应力小于200 kPa时,剪切带厚度随上覆应力的增大表现为增大的趋势,但上覆应力超过200 kPa时,其值表现为减小的趋势。然而,在数值模拟计算中,考虑块石不可破碎的情况下剪切带裂纹区域的宽度随含石量和上覆压力的增大表现为持续增大的趋势特征。分析认为,土石混合体剪切中大块石之间咬合后的齿轮带动效应是促使剪切带厚度增大的重要原因,而骨架结构含石量以及高垂直应力下块石咬合部位因高度的应力集中,随后导致的咬合棱角破碎,块石变形被限制在一定的区域内,却抑制了剪切带厚度的进一步增大。相反,在块石不可破碎的数值模拟计算中,高含石量试样内块石可持续的咬合滚动,促使周围的块石也发生变形,进而增大了剪切带的厚度。研究结果有利于揭示土石混合体的剪切变形破坏机制。

     

对流移入杭州湾后飑线发展机制分析

利用多源观测资料,对2021年4月30日发生在黄淮地区的一次强对流过程中由不同类型风暴系统造成的极端对流大风进行了探讨。研究表明,此次强对流过程发生在东北冷涡背景下的强风垂直切变和层结不稳定环境中,地面气旋及锋面触发了初始对流,在之后近10 h的传播过程中经历了组织化发展、孤立风暴新生、发展、合并与重组等不同阶段。期间,由两种不同类型风暴产生了特征相异的对流性大风：第一阶段,以江苏淮安站为代表,苏中极端对流性大风（36.2 m/s）是由发展强烈的超级单体风暴引发下击暴流所致。对流风暴低层呈现出明显的钩状回波特征,对应深厚的具有显著气旋性旋转的中气旋,在地面极端大风临近时刻,中气旋存在同时向上和向下拉伸、水平尺度快速收缩过程。贯穿整个风暴的下沉气流位于风暴钩状回波后侧,这支强下沉气流至地面附近迅速向外辐散,伴随风暴内强反射率核快速下降,导致淮安产生时、空尺度小且空间分布显著不连续的极端大风。第二阶段,以江苏南通地区为代表,苏东南地区极端大风的发展过程涉及多尺度天气系统的相互作用。线状对流系统前部存在明显的阵风锋,造成较大范围10级以上的地面大风;南通通州湾极端大风（47.9 m/s）发生在阵风锋后侧,其形成一方面是由于线形对流风暴造成的强冷池与地面冷锋相叠加,形成更强的气压梯度,另一方面与地面中尺度气旋入海过程中的快速发展以及风暴后侧倾斜向前的下沉气流导致的高空风动量下传有关。