Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty

How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our uncertainty is actually prone to increase even though we learn more about the climate system. We term disconcerting learning this somewhat counter-intuitive process in which improved knowledge generates higher uncertainty. After recalling some definitions, this concept is connected with the related concept of negative learning that was introduced earlier by Oppenheimer et al. (Clim Change 89:155–172, 2008). We illustrate disconcerting learning on several real-life examples and characterize mathematically certain general conditions for its occurrence. We show next that these conditions are met in the current state of our knowledge on climate sensitivity, and illustrate this situation based on an energy balance model of climate. We finally discuss the implications of these results on the development of adaptation and mitigation policy.     

Studies on Migratory Movements of the Prawn Penaeus kerathurus (Forskal, 1775) at Amvrakikos Gulf, Western Greece

Abstract. The prawn Penaeus kerathurus completes its life cycle in Amvrakikos Gulf. The reasons for not entering the open sea depend on the status of biotic and abiotic factors of the gulf. The migratory movements of the species in the gulf are described by a simple square model, in each corner of which, the wintering, spawning, nursery, and recruitment area exist. The wintering area is located below the 25m isobath and wintering period lasts from late December to late March. Spermatophores on females are observed throughout the year but the highest percentages between April and August. The spawning season begins late in spring and continues through the summer. The spawning area is located below the 10m isobath, mainly around 25m. The nursery area of Penaeus kerathurus is in shallow waters near river estuaries, and the temporal limits were determined to be between mid-summer and mid-autumn. Finally, the recruitment area is located near the nursery area, with recruitment taking place in autumn, while the major stock renewal is restricted to winter.     

Forced regressive deposits of a deglaciation sequence: Example from the Late Quaternary succession in the Lake Saint‐Jean basin (Québec,Canada)

Differentiating between forced regressive deposits from deglacial periods in high latitude domains and forced regressive deposits from the onset of glacial periods in low latitude domains is fundamental for the accurate interpretation of glacial cycles within the geological record and then for the reconstruction of palaeogeography and palaeo‐climate. A forced regressive deglacial sequence is documented from the Lake Saint‐Jean basin (Québec, Canada). In this area, the Late Pleistocene to Holocene sediments have recorded the Laurentide ice sheet retreat accompanied by the invasion of marine waters (Laflamme Gulf) from ca 12·9 cal kyr bp . Subsequently, fluvio‐deltaic and coastal prograding wedges were deposited; they followed the base‐level fall due to glacio‐isostatic rebound. This succession, representing a transition from glacial to post‐glacial periods within a previously glaciated area, was investigated through recent mapping, preserved landforms, facies analysis, and new optical stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dates. Three basin‐scale geological sections share a common lower part made of isolated ice‐contact fan deposits overlying bedrock. Throughout the entire basin, ice‐contact fans are capped by glacimarine muds. Above, fluvial and coastal prograding systems were deposited and evolved through four steps: (i) deltaic systems progressively increased in width; (ii) coastal influence on sedimentation increased; (iii) hydrographic drainage systems became more organised; and (iv) deltas graded from steep (Gilbert delta) to low‐angle foresets (mouth‐bar delta). Deposited during the base‐level fall from glacio‐isostatic rebound, the complete succession has been designated as a single falling stage system tract referred to as a deglacial falling stage system tract. It is representative of a deglaciation sequence in areas previously covered by ice during glacial periods (i.e. medium to high latitude domains). Diagnostic criteria are provided to identify such a deglacial falling stage system tract in the geological record, which may aid identification of previously unknown glacial cycles.     

MétéEAU Nappes: a real-time water-resource-management tool and its application to a sandy aquifer in a high-demand irrigation context

The MétéEAU Nappes water-resource-management tool is presented. It is usable on the aquifer or part-of-aquifer scale for real-time observation of the state of the groundwater resource, and it is already operating in France. This online decision support tool is also able to predict the state of the resource in the short- and mid-terms. The paper explains the use of the tool in a case study in the Authion Valley, in the north-west of France, chosen for its context of tension surrounding the groundwater resource resulting from high volumes of abstraction for irrigation. The results of the simulation highlight the advantages of MétéEAU Nappes as a tool for prediction and simulation of the state of the groundwater resource. The results also show the advantages of this type of tool for water resource management, such as supplying local actors with reliable and real-time observations of the aquifer and providing forecasts to anticipate possible water shortage.

     

利用MODIS资料遥感香港地区高分辨率气溶胶光学厚度

在美国国家航空和宇航局(NASA)利用中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)遥感大气气溶胶业务算法的基础上, 提出了一个1 km高分辨率气溶胶光学厚度反演方法, 并应用于香港地区的反演. 与地面太阳光度计的长期对比相对偏差大约为20%以内, 显示这一方法在香港地区的试用具有较高的精度.将该产品应用于空气污染个例, 并与香港地区14个站的地面污染物PM10(直径在10 μm以下的气溶胶颗粒物)质量浓度的变化进行了比较, 结果显示气溶胶光学厚度产品可以用来描绘城市尺度的气溶胶污染分布, 提供了更好地研究大气环境污染的新信息.     

Dependence of Mixed Aerosol Light Scattering Extinction on Relative Humidity in Beijing and Hong Kong

The hygroscopic properties of mixed aerosol particles are crucial for the application of remote sensing products of aerosol optical parameters in the study of air quality and climate at multiple scales. In this study, the authors investigated aerosol optical properties as a function of relative humidity (RH) for two representative metropolises: Beijing and Hong Kong. In addition to the RH data, mass concentrations of PM 10 (particulate matter up to 10 μm in diameter) and aerosol scattering extinction coefficient (σ ext ) data were used. The relationship between the mass scattering extinction efficiency (MEE, defined as σ ext /PM 10 ) and RH can be expressed by regression functions as f = 1.52x + 0.29 (r2 = 0.77), f = 1.42x + 1.53 (r2 = 0.58), f = 1.19x + 0.65 (r2 = 0.59), and f = 1.58x + 1.30 (r2 = 0.61) for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively, in Beijing. Here, f represents MEE, x represents 1/(1 RH), and the coefficients of determination are pre- sented in parentheses. Conversely, in Hong Kong, the corresponding functions are f = 1.98x 1.40 (r2 = 0.55), f = 1.32x 0.36 (r2 = 0.26), f = 1.87x 0.65 (r2 = 0.64), and f = 2.39x 1.47 (r2 = 0.72), respectively. The MEE values for Hong Kong at high RHs (RH 70%) are higher than those for Beijing, except in summer; this suggests that aerosols in Hong Kong are more hygroscopic than those in Beijing for the other three seasons, but the aerosol hygroscopicity is similarly high in summer over both cities. This study describes the effects of moisture on aerosol scattering extinction coefficients and provides a potential method of studying atmospheric visibility and groundlevel air quality using some of the optical remote sensing products of satellites.     

Seasonal and interannual evolution of the mixed layer in the Antarctic Zone south of Tasmania

Seasonal and interannual variations of the mixed layer properties in the Antarctic Zone (AZ) south of Tasmania are described using 7 WOCE/SR3 CTD sections and 8 years of summertime SURVOSTRAL XBT and thermosalinograph measurements between Tasmania and Antarctica. The AZ, which extends from the Polar Front (PF) to the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF), is characterized by a 150 m deep layer of cold Winter Water (WW) overlayed in summer by warmer, fresher water mass known as Antarctic Surface Water (AASW). South of Tasmania, two branches of the PF divide the AZ into northern and southern zones with distinct water properties and variability. In the northern AZ (between the northern and southern branches of the PF), the mixed layer depth (MLD) is fairly constant in latitude, being 150 m deep in winter and around 40–60 m in summer. In the southern AZ, the winter MLD decreases from 150 m at the S-PF to 80 m at the SACCF and from 60 to 35 m in summer. Shallower mixed layers in the AZ-S are due to the decrease in the wind speed and stronger upwelling near the Antarctic Divergence. The WW MLD oscillates by ±15 m around its mean value and modest interannual changes are driven by winter wind stress anomalies.The mixed layer is on annual average 1.7 °C warmer, 0.06 fresher and 0.2 kg m⁻³ lighter in the northern AZ than in the southern AZ. The Levitus (1998) climatology is in agreement with the observed mean summer mixed layer temperature and salinity along the SURVOSTRAL line but underestimates the MLD by 10–20 m. The winter MLD in the climatology is also closed to that observed, but is 0.15 saltier than the observations along the AZ-N of the SR3 line. MLD, temperature and density show a strong seasonal cycle through the AZ while the mixed layer salinity is nearly constant throughout the year. During winter, the AZ MLD is associated with a halocline while during summer it coincides with a thermocline.Interannual variability of the AZ summer mixed layer is partly influenced by large scale processes such as the circumpolar wave which produces a warm anomaly during the summer 1996–1997, and partly by local mechanisms such as the retroflection of the S-PF which introduces cold water across the AZ-N.