Assessment of Erythemal UV Level in Nepal Based on Solar UV Estimates from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer

Nepal lies on the southern slope of Himalaya in Asia. In a width ranging between 150 and 250 km, the altitude varies greatly from about 100 m at its southern border to a maximum of 8848 min the northern part. Like the variation in altitude, climatic condition varies quite a lot. Long-term monthly mean erythemal UV daily dose values for Nepal are evaluated using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) estimation from the time of its overpass between 1996 and 2003. The results are presented as summer and winter maps of mean UV levels in each satellite grid. The mean winter erythemal UV daily dose ranges between 2.1 and 3.6 kJ m-2 whereas summer values are found to lie between 4.6 and 9.7 kJ m-2. The altitude variation increases the UV levels by about 0.2 kJ km-1 in winter months, and 0.9 kJ km-1 in summer. A multiyear monthly average erythemal daily dose in most of the areas shows that the summer value is about three times higher than that in winter. Although year-to-year variation is not pronounced in high- and mid-elevation regions, UV levels seemed to decrease from 1997 to 2002 in the southern part of the country in the low elevation region by about 5.35%. Due to the combined effects of the altitude, low ozone concentration in the troposphere, and thin air, surface UV radiation at higher altitudes is found to be higher than in the surrounding regions.     

Understanding river dune splitting through flume experiments and analysis of a dune evolution model

Forecasts of water level during river floods require accurate predictions of the evolution of river dune dimensions, because the hydraulic roughness of the main channel is largely determined by the bed morphology. River dune dimensions are controlled by processes like merging and splitting of dunes. Particularly the process of dune splitting is still poorly understood and – as a result – not yet included in operational dune evolution models. In the current paper, the process of dune splitting is investigated by carrying out laboratory experiments and by means of a sensitivity analysis using a numerical dune evolution model. In the numerical model, we introduced superimposed TRIAS ripples (i.e. triangular asymmetric stoss side‐ripples) on the stoss sides of underlying dunes as soon as these stoss sides exceed a certain critical length. Simulations with the model including dune splitting showed that predictions of equilibrium dune characteristics were significantly improved compared to the model without dune splitting. As dune splitting is implemented in a parameterized way, the computational cost remains low which means that dune evolution can be calculated on the timescale of a flood wave. Subsequently, we used this model to study the mechanism of dune splitting. Literature showed that the initiation of a strong flow separation zone behind a superimposed bedform is one of the main mechanisms behind dune splitting. The flume experiments indicated that besides its height also the lee side slope of the superimposed bedform is an important factor to determine the strength of the flow separation zone and therefore is an important aspect in dune splitting. The sensitivity analysis of the dune evolution model showed that a minimum stoss side length was required to develop a strong flow separation zone. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-level parameter structure identification for two-phase porous-media flow problems using flexible representations

We consider identification of absolute permeability (hydraulic conductivity) based on time series of pressure data in sparsely distributed wells for two-phase porous-media flow. For this problem, it is impossible to recover all details of the parameter function. On the other hand, a coarser, approximate recovery may be sufficient for many applications. We propose a novel solution approach, based on reparametrization, for such approximate identification of the parameter function. We use a nonlinear, composite representation, which is detached from the computational grid, allowing for a flexible representation of the parameter function at many resolution levels. This is utilized in a sequential multi-level estimation of the parameter function, starting at a coarse resolution, which is then gradually refined. The composite representation is designed to allow for smooth as well as sharp transitions between regions of nearly constant parameter value. Moreover, it facilitates the estimation also of the structure and smoothness of the parameter function itself. As a limiting case, the chosen representation is reduced to a zonation with implicit representation of the interior boundaries that is equivalent to a level-set representation. A motivation for the selected representation and the multi-level estimation is presented in terms of an analysis of sensitivity and nonlinearity. Numerical examples demonstrate identification of coarse-scale features of reference permeability distributions with varying degree of smoothness. Comparisons show how the multi-level strategy stabilize the identification and avoid local minima of the objective function compared to a single-level strategy.     

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.     

Reassembling the Paleogene–Eocene North Atlantic igneous province: New paleomagnetic constraints from the Isle of Mull, Scotland

The paleomagnetic data sets from the British Tertiary Igneous Province (BTIP) have recently been criticized as being unreliable and discordant with data from elsewhere in the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) [Riisager et al. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 201 (2002) 261–276; Riisager et al. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 214 (2003) 409–425]. We offer new paleomagnetic data for the extensive lava flow sequence on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, and can confirm the paleomagnetic pole positions emanating from important earlier studies. Our new north paleomagnetic pole position for Eurasia at 59 ± 0.2 Ma has latitude 73.3°N, longitude 166.2°E (dp/dm = 5.2/7.0).A re-evaluation and an inter-comparison of the paleomagnetic database emanating from the NAIP were carried out to test for sub-province consistency. We find a general agreement between the Eurasian part of NAIP (BTIP and Faeroes) and East Greenland data. However a compilation of West Greenland data displays a large and unexplained dispersion. We speculate on if this is related to different sense of block rotation of the Tertiary West Greenland constituents. Combining all data from the NAIP constituents, give a pole position at 75.0°N, 169.9°E (N = 25, K = 84.3, A₉₅ = 3.2) in Eurasian reference frame.     

A level-set corrector to an adaptive multiscale permeability prediction

We consider the inverse problem of permeability estimation for two-phase porous-media flow. The novel approach is based on regularization by zonation, where the geometry and size of the regions are chosen adaptively during the optimization procedure. To achieve this, we have utilized level-set functions to represent the permeability. The available data are sparsely distributed in space; hence, it is reasonable to confine the estimation to coarse-scale structures. The level-set approach is able to alter the boundaries between regions of different permeability without strict restrictions on their shape; however, when the data are sparse, a reasonable initial guess for the permeability is required. For this task, we use adaptive multiscale permeability estimation, which has the potential of identifying main permeability variations. These are described by a piecewise constant function, where the constant values are attained on rectangular zones. In the current work, we develop a level-set corrector strategy, assuming adaptive multiscale permeability estimation as a predictor.     

Bayesian power-law regression with a location parameter,with applications for construction of discharge rating curves

This paper presents a Bayesian approach for fitting the standard power-law rating curve model to a set of stage-discharge measurements. Methods for eliciting both regional and at-site prior information, and issues concerning the determination of prior forms, are discussed. An efficient MCMC algorithm for the specific problem is derived. The appropriateness of the proposed method is demonstrated by applying the model to both simulated and real-life data. However, some problems came to light in the applications, and these are discussed.     

Overview,roles, and performance of the North East Atlantic fisheries commission (NEAFC)

According to the 1995 United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement (UNFSA), straddling fish stocks and highly migratory fish stocks are to be managed by Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs), consisting of coastal states and relevant Distant Water Fishing Nations (DWFNs). In the North East Atlantic there are several straddling stocks, including herring, mackerel, blue whiting, redfish and numerous deep sea stocks that are exploited both within coastal states’ 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zones and on the high seas. Management of such stocks poses special management problems. In this area, the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) represents the relevant RFMO. So far the literature has devoted little attention to RFMOs in general and to NEAFC in particular. The purpose of this report is, first, to provide an overview of the organisation, structure, and objectives of NEAFC and, second, to consider its performance with regard to resource management.     

Integration of the life of field seismic data with the reservoir model at the Valhall Field‡

The frequent time‐lapse observations from the life of field seismic system across the Valhall field provide a wealth of information. The responses from the production and injection wells can be observed through time‐shift and amplitude changes. These observations can be compared to modelled synthetic seismic responses from a reservoir simulation model of the Valhall Field. The observed differences between the observations and the modelling are used to update and improve the history match of the reservoir model. The uncertainty of the resulting model is reduced and a more confident prediction of future reservoir performance is provided. A workflow is presented to convert the reservoir model to a synthetic seismic response and compare the results to the observed time‐lapse responses for any time range and area of interest. Correlation based match quality factors are calculated to quantify the visual differences. This match quality factor allows us to quantitatively compare alternative reservoir models to help identify the parameters that best match the seismic observations. Three different case studies are shown where this workflow has helped to reduce the uncertainty range associated with specific reservoir parameters. By updating various reservoir model parameters we have been able to improve the match to the observations and thereby improve the overall reservoir model predictability. The examples show positive results in a range of different reservoir modelling issues, which indicates the flexibility of this workflow and the ability to have an impact in most reservoir modelling challenges.     

Lithologic control of debris torrent occurrence

A field-based investigation into the frequency and magnitude of debris torrent systems reveals that lithology controls the spatial and temporal occurrence of debris torrents in the Tsitika Watershed, Vancouver Island, British Columbia. We identified 125 debris torrent systems in the watershed; for half these basins we used dendrochronology, historical air photographs, and field surveys to estimate debris torrent frequency and magnitude for a 30 year period. We find that the volcaniclastic half of the watershed contains more than twice as many debris torrent systems, in which debris torrents occur over seven times more frequently, and the deposits have a higher rate of delivery of sediment to the mainstem river than the intrusive half. Lithologic differences in weathering rates, weathering product grain size, and rock texture can explain the observed differences in debris torrent behaviour. Because debris torrents are the main sediment transport path from hilltop to valley bottom in the region, these results confirm an important lithologic control on regional sediment transport. While the exact numbers are uncertain, we estimate that the sediment flux of volcaniclastic debris torrents in the watershed is five times higher than that of the intrusive debris torrents.