Testing and calibrating parametric wave transformation models on natural beaches

To provide coastal engineers and scientists with a detailed inter-comparison of widely used parametric wave transformation models, several models are tested and calibrated with extensive observations from six field experiments on barred and unbarred beaches. Using previously calibrated (“default”) values of a free parameter γ, all models predict the observations reasonably well (median root-mean-square wave height errors are between 10% and 20%) at all field sites. Model errors can be reduced by roughly 50% by tuning γ for each data record. No tuned or default model provides the best predictions for all data records or at all experiments. Tuned γ differ for the different models and experiments, but in all cases γ increases as the hyperbolic tangent of the deep-water wave height, H_o. Data from two experiments are used to estimate empirical, universal curves for γ based on H_o. Using the new parameterization, all models have similar accuracy, and usually show increased skill relative to using default γ.     

Simulated asteroid materials based on carbonaceous chondrite mineralogies

A set of high‐fidelity simulated asteroid materials, or simulants, was developed based on the mineralogy of carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Three varieties of simulant were developed based on CI1 chondrites (typified by Orgueil), CM2 chondrites (typified by Murchison), and CR2/3 chondrites (multiple samples). The simulants were designed to replicate the mineralogy and physical properties of the corresponding meteorites and anticipated asteroid surface materials as closely as is reasonably possible for bulk amounts. The simulants can be made in different physical forms ranging from larger cobbles to fine‐grained regolith. We analyzed simulant prototypes using scanning electron microscopy, X‐ray fluorescence, reflectance spectroscopy at ambient conditions and in vacuum, thermal emission spectroscopy in a simulated asteroid environment chamber, and combined thermogravimetry and evolved gas analysis. Most measured properties compare favorably to the reference meteorites and therefore to predicted volatile‐rich asteroid surface materials, including boulders, cobbles, and fine‐grained soils. However, there were also discrepancies, and mistakes were made in the original mineral formulations that will be updated in the future. The asteroid simulants are available to the community from the nonprofit Exolith Lab at UCF, and the mineral recipes are freely published for other groups to reproduce and modify as they see fit.     

Strengths of meteorites—An overview and analysis of available data

We report all available measurements on strength of meteorites, primarily focusing on compressive and tensile strengths and supplementary data such as Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, elastic sound wave velocities, density, porosity, and sample sizes. These data are solely taken from the original papers to avoid misprints and other issues. The data are provided as originally presented by the authors with the exception of standardization of units to the SI system. A brief overview of methods for each original work is also provided as a guide to “data quality” since individual papers go to varying levels of detail on their experimental setup and procedures. From this data set, we confirm that the compressive strength of ordinary chondrites (varying in the range of 10s to 100s of MPa) is about an order of magnitude larger compared to their tensile strength and the difference increases with iron content. For carbonaceous chondrites, the tensile strength seems to be about an order of magnitude below the tensile strength of ordinary chondrites and at least an order of magnitude below their compressive strength. We also provide a statistical relation between the strength of meteorites and their densities and porosities and discuss the role of strain rate and sample size on the resultant measured strength. Finally, the data do not provide sufficient statistics to support a size scale effect of strength of meteorites.     

The Effect of Bottle Fill Rate and Pour Technique on the Recovery of Volatile Organics

This field study was conducted to examine whether the method or the flow rate (fill rate) used to fill a sample vial affects recovery of volatile organics (VOCs). To our knowledge, there have not been any systematic studies that have examined this issue. For this field study, three fill rates (50 mL/min, 250 mL/min, and ~1 L/min) and three filling methods (top‐pour, side‐pour, and bottom‐fill) were used to fill sample vials. We found that the bottom‐fill method, with the tubing submerged in the sample as it fills, yielded the greatest recovery (i.e., highest concentrations) of VOCs. Little improvement was observed by pouring down the side of a vial vs. simply pouring straight down from the top. We also found that filling the vials at the fastest fill rate (~1 L/min) yielded higher recovery than the slowest fill rate (50 mL/min) using all three filling methods. These results are counter to prevailing guidance and conventional wisdom that slower filling is preferable to faster filling and that pouring down the side of a sample vial is the best practice for VOC sampling. However, because we were unable to randomize the order the samples were collected with respect to fill rate, we recommend a follow‐on study be conducted that will allow us to confirm our findings and better determine which fill rates minimize losses of VOCs     

Observing Convective Aggregation

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network.     

Evaluating post-hurricane impacts in co-management areas: a framework for expert consensus

Natural Hazards - Natural ecosystems are characterized as dynamic systems that evolve through natural patterns of disturbance. Land managers can work within this system of natural disturbance by...     

H/L chondrite LaPaz Icefield 031047 - A feather of Icarus?

Antarctic meteorite LAP 031047 is an ordinary chondrite composed of loosely consolidated chondritic fragments. Its petrography, oxygen isotopic composition and geochemical inventory are ambiguous and indicate an intermediate character between H and L chondrites. Petrographic indicators suggest LAP 031047 suffered a shock metamorphic overprint below ∼10 GPa, which did not destroy its unusually high porosity of ∼27 vol%. Metallographic textures in LAP 031047 indicate heating above ∼700 °C and subsequent cooling, which caused massive transformation of taenite to kamacite. The depletion of thermally labile trace elements, the crystallization of chondritic glass to microcrystalline plagioclase of unusual composition, and the occurrence of coarsely crystallized chondrule fragments is further evidence for post-metamorphic heating to ∼700-750 °C. However, this heating event had a transient character because olivine and low-Ca pyroxene did not equilibrate. Nearly complete degassing up to very high temperatures is indicated by the thorough resetting of LAP 031047’s Ar-Ar reservoir ∼100 ± 55 Ma ago. A noble gas cosmic-ray exposure age indicates it was reduced to a meter-size fragment at <0.5 Ma. In light of the fact that shock heating cannot account for the thermal history of LAP 031047 in its entirety, we test the hypothesis that this meteorite belonged to the near-surface of an Aten or Apollo asteroid that underwent heating during orbital passages close to the Sun.     

Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps

Remotely sensed land cover maps are increasingly used as inputs into environmental simulation models whose outputs inform decisions and policy-making. Risks associated with these decisions are dependent on model output uncertainty, which is in turn affected by the uncertainty of land cover inputs. This article presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty that results from potential mis-classification in remotely sensed land cover maps. In addition to quantifying uncertainty in the classification of individual pixels in the map, we also address the important case where land cover maps have been upscaled to a coarser grid to suit the users’ needs and are reported as proportions of land cover type. The approach is Bayesian and incorporates several layers of modelling but is straightforward to implement. First, we incorporate data in the confusion matrix derived from an independent field survey, and discuss the appropriate way to model such data. Second, we account for spatial correlation in the true land cover map, using the remotely sensed map as a prior. Third, spatial correlation in the mis-classification characteristics is induced by modelling their variance. The result is that we are able to simulate posterior means and variances for individual sites and the entire map using a simple Monte Carlo algorithm. The method is applied to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales, a map used as an input into a current dynamic carbon flux model.     

Density,magnetic susceptibility,and the characterization of ordinary chondrite falls and showers

Abstract— Bulk and grain densities of 132 ordinary chondrites from the Vatican Observatory collection were measured and compared with their magnetic susceptibility (for the most part using previously measured values; ten new susceptibility measures were taken for this study). Grain density and magnetic susceptibility combined provide a reliable method of classifying unweathered ordinary chondrites. Unlike traditional chemical tests, this method is fast, nondestructive, and characterizes the whole rock, making it especially appropriate for surveying large collections. The system is less viable for finds; extensive weathering of metallic iron in an H chondrite can cause it to plot among L chondrites, while heavily weathered L chondrites plot among the LL group. This system has revealed outlier stones that may be misclassified meteorites or mislabeled samples; in every case where the magnetic susceptibility of a meteorite does not fit its putative classification, the grain density is also found to be in disagreement in a manner consistent with either severe weathering or misidentification. An analysis of stones from five showers shows that, excluding outliers, these samples tend to cluster tightly within their appropriate groups in a plot of grain versus magnetic susceptibility.