Assessing the ‘usability’ of climate change research for decision-making: A case study of the Canadian International Polar Year

The creation of ‘usable science’ is widely promoted by many environmental change focused research programs. Few studies however, have examined the relationship between research conducted as part of such programs and the decision-making outcomes that the work is supposed to advance, and is constrained by limited methodological development on how to empirically assess the ‘usability’ of science. Herein, this paper develops a conceptual model and assessment rubric to quantitatively and systematically evaluate the usability of climate change research for informing decision-making. We focus on the process through which data is collected, analyzed and reported and examine the extent to which key principles of usable science are integrated into project design, using grant proposals as our data source. The approach is applied to analyze climate change research conducted as part of the International Polar Year in Canada, with 23 projects identified as having explicit goals to inform decision-making.While the creation of usable science was promoted by funded projects in the International Polar Year, this was not generally reflected in research design: fewer than half determined objectives with input of decision makers, decision context was not widely considered, and knowledge users were not widely reported to be engaged in assessing the quality of data or in resolving conflict in evidence. The importance of science communication was widely emphasized, although only 8/23 projects discussed tailoring specific results for end user needs. Thus while International Polar Year research has made significant advances in understanding the human dimensions of Arctic climate change, key attributes necessary for determining success in linking science to decision-making (pertinence, quality, timeliness) were not captured by many projects. Integrating these attributes into research design from the outset is essential for creating usable science, and needs to be at the forefront of future research programs which aim to advance societal outcomes. The framework for assessing usability here, while developed and tested in an Arctic climate change context, has broader applicability in the general environmental change field.     

New data on the composition and age of basement rocks of the Tagil paleo-island arc system

The Tagil paleo-island arc terrane is composed of Late Ordovician-Devonian intrusive, volcanic, and volcano-sedimentary complexes. The western margin of the terrane is comprised of dunite-clinopyroxenite-gabbro massifs of the Ural platinum-bearing belt, which are fringed by rock strata of widely different metamorphic grades. Work on isotope systematics of olivine gabbros enabled us to infer a Vendian age (550–540 Ma) of homogenization of the Sm-Nd isotopic system of the Kytlym and Knyaspa massifs within the Ural platinum-bearing belt. The Sm-Nd ages for metamorphic rocks of the Belaya Gora complex surrounding the studied massifs also agree with a Vendian age (573–574 Ma). Our results suggest that metamorphites of the Belaya Gora complex (amphibolites, plagiogneisses, two-mica and biotite gneisses, schists containing garnet, cordierite, staurolite, gedrite, and sillimanite) and dunite-clinopyroxenite-gabbro intrusions of the proto-platinum-bearing belt may have been formed in a convergence setting above a mantle plume, most likely in a back-arc (?) extension region. Reactivation of this plume during the late Precambrian resulted in the opening of the Ural paleo-ocean. The Late Ordovician-Early Devonian times were marked by metamorphic reworking and tectonic transport of pre-Paleozoic complexes into an accretionary prism setting of the Tagil paleo-arc that was accompanied by generation of gabbroid and granitoid magmas. Based on the obtained results, the Tagil terrane can be now considered as part of the Paleozoic paleo-island arc system developed on a heterogeneous Proterozoic basement.     

A Lagrangian approach to nonlinear modeling of anti-roll tanks

This paper presents two novel nonlinear models of u-shaped anti-roll tanks for ships, and their linearizations. In addition, a third simplified nonlinear model is presented. The models are derived using Lagrangian mechanics. This formulation not only simplifies the modeling process, but also allows one to obtain models that satisfy energy-related physical properties. The proposed nonlinear models and their linearizations are validated using model-scale experimental data. Unlike other models in the literature, the nonlinear models in this paper are valid for large roll amplitudes. Even at moderate roll angles, the nonlinear models have three orders of magnitude lower mean square error relative to experimental data than the linear models.     

Stony meteorite porosities and densities: A review of the data through 2001

Abstract— In this review, we summarize the data published up to December 2001 on the porosity and density of stony meteorites. These data were taken from 925 samples of 454 different meteorites by a variety of techniques. Most meteorites have densities on the order of 3 to 4 g/cm³, with lower densities only for some volatile‐rich carbonaceous meteorites and higher densities for stony irons. For the vast majority of stones, porosity data alone cannot distinguish between different meteorite compositions. Average porosities for most meteorite classes are around 10%, though individual samples can range as high as 30% porosity. Unbrecciated basaltic achondrites appear to be systematically less porous unless vesicles are present. The measured density of ordinary chondrites is strongly controlled by the amount of terrestrial weathering the sample has undergone with porosities steadily dropping with exposure to the terrestrial environment. A theoretical grain density based on composition can model “pre‐weathered” porosities. The average model porosity for H and LL chondrites is 10%, while L chondrite model porosities average only 6%, a statistically significant difference.     

Prospects for spectroscopic reflected-light planet searches

High-resolution spectroscopic searches for the starlight reflected from close-in extrasolar giant planets have the capability of determining the optical albedo spectra and scattering properties of these objects. When combined with radial velocity measurements they also yield the true mass of the planet. To date, only two such planets have been targeted for reflected-light signals, yielding upper limits on the optical albedos of the planets. Here we examine the prospects for future searches of this kind. We present Monte Carlo estimates of prior probability distributions for the orbital velocity amplitudes and planet/star flux ratios of six bright stars known to harbour giant planets in orbits with periods of less than 5 d. Using these estimates, we assess the viability of these targets for future reflected-light searches using 4- and 8-m class telescopes.     

Impact of erosion and accretion on the distribution of enterococci in beach sands

Bacterial pathogens in coastal sediments may pose a health risk to users of beaches. Although recent work shows that beach sands harbor both indicator bacteria and potential pathogens, it is neither known how deep within beach sands the organisms may persist nor if they may be exposed during natural physical processes. In this study, sand cores of approximately 100 cm depth were collected at three sites across the beach face in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, before, during, and after large waves from an offshore hurricane. The presence of DNA from the fecal indicator bacterium Enterococci was detected in subsamples at different depths within the cores by PCR amplification. Erosion and accretion of beach sand at the three sites were also determined for each sampling day. The results indicate that ocean beach sands with persisting enterococci signals could be exposed and redistributed when wind, waves, and currents cause beach erosion or accretion.     

Analysis of a prehistoric Egyptian iron bead with implications for the use and perception of meteorite iron in ancient Egypt

Tube‐shaped beads excavated from grave pits at the prehistoric Gerzeh cemetery, approximately 3300 BCE, represent the earliest known use of iron in Egypt. Using a combination of scanning electron microscopy and micro X‐ray microcomputer tomography, we show that microstructural and chemical analysis of a Gerzeh iron bead is consistent with a cold‐worked iron meteorite. Thin fragments of parallel bands of taenite within a meteoritic Widmanstätten pattern are present, with structural distortion caused by cold‐working. The metal fragments retain their original chemistry of approximately 30 wt% nickel. The bulk of the bead is highly oxidized, with only approximately 2.4% of the total bead volume remaining as metal. Our results show that the first known example of the use of iron in Egypt was produced from a meteorite, its celestial origin having implications for both the perception of meteorite iron by ancient Egyptians and the development of metallurgical knowledge in the Nile Valley.     

Enhanced Acoustic Backscatter Due to High Abundance of Sand Dollars,Dendraster excentricus

Abstract

Detailed acoustic surveys of benthic sediments were conducted in July 1995 and September 1998 in the vicinity of Humboldt Bay, California. During these surveys, a band of enhanced acoustic backscatter was observed offshore from the bay entrance, approximately parallel to the isobaths, in water depths ranging from 16–24 m. In order to assess the cause of the increase in backscatter levels, a more comprehensive study was conducted in August and September 1999 using 100 kHz side-scan sonar, bottom grab sampling and underwater video recording. New observations indicated that a dense population of sand dollars (Dendraster excentricus) coincided with the enhanced backscatter band. Compared to the two previous acoustic studies, the central section of the band expanded westward by 180 m and the southern section of the band shifted eastward by 160 m, possibly resulting from a change in the biological or physical factors which influence the location and breadth of sand dollars.

The relationship between high sand dollar abundance and enhanced acoustic backscatter was further verified in the near shore region off Samoa Beach California, where a dense, banded population of sand dollars was previously observed. Video footage confirmed the presence of a band of sand dollars, also nominally parallel to the isobaths, in water depths of 8–15 m. A band of enhanced backscatter coincided with the dense sand dollar population. The identification of dense aggregations of sand dollars through enhanced acoustic backscatter could lead to the use of acoustic techniques to study sand dollar distributions and abundance.