Improvements in storm surge surrogate modeling for synthetic storm parameterization,node condition classification and implementation to small size databases

Surrogate models are becoming increasingly popular for storm surge predictions. Using existing databases of storm simulations, developed typically during regional flood studies, these models provide fast-to-compute, data-driven approximations quantifying the expected storm surge for any new storm (not included in the training database). This paper considers the development of such a surrogate model for Delaware Bay, using a database of 156 simulations driven by synthetic tropical cyclones and offering predictions for a grid that includes close to 300,000 computational nodes within the geographical domain of interest. Kriging (Gaussian Process regression) is adopted as the surrogate modeling technique, and various relevant advancements are established. The appropriate parameterization of the synthetic storm database is examined. For this, instead of the storm features at landfall, the features when the storm is at closest distance to some representative point of the domain of interest are investigated as an alternative parametrization, and are found to produce a better surrogate. For nodes that remained dry for some of the database storms, imputation of the surge using a weighted k nearest neighbor (kNN) interpolation is considered to fill in the missing data. The use of a secondary, classification surrogate model, combining logistic principal component analysis and Kriging, is examined to address instances for which the imputed surge leads to misclassification of the node condition. Finally, concerns related to overfitting for the surrogate model are discussed, stemming from the small size of the available database. These concerns extend to both the calibration of the surrogate model hyper-parameters, as well as to the validation approaches adopted. During this process, the benefits from the use of principal component analysis as a dimensionality reduction technique, and the appropriate transformation and scaling of the surge output are examined in detail.

     

Effect of support rotation on triple friction pendulum bearing behavior

This paper presents numerical modeling techniques to capture the behavior of the triple friction pendulum (TFP) isolation bearing when rotation is permitted about the horizontal axes of the top and bottom components. This paper builds on a previous model for the TFP bearing presented by the authors that is based on the kinematic and constitutive relationships of the individual components of the TFP bearing. The effect of rotation on cyclic bearing behavior and seismic system behavior are investigated numerically for two cases: constant support rotation and variable support rotation. It is found that constant support rotations should be limited in amplitude to ensure standard TFP bearing behavior. Results suggest that flexible supports may not have a large effect on global structure performance as long as typical deformation limits for the supporting members are met. In cases of both constant support rotations and flexible supports, the hardening stages of TFP bearing behavior are diminished. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An investigation of aspects of mine waste from a kyanite mine,Central Virginia,USA

Kyanite Mining Corporation, located in Dillwyn, Virginia has been in operation for over 50 years and their local operation is the largest kyanite mine in the world. As part of the processing at this location, a magnetic separate is generated and a minimum estimation of 3.57 million tons of waste has accumulated. Currently no use for the magnetic separate has been identified. We investigated eight representative samples of the magnetic mine waste which varied in color from a dark tan to black, to determine if the waste could be recycled as an ore or could be used as an environmental media. Mineralogical investigations indicate the composition of the magnetic mine waste is dominated by magnetite, kyanite, lesser amounts of hematite and charcoal. Magnetite occurs as fine grained crystals and as inclusions in kyanite. Hematite occurs largely as botryoidal textures, as discrete grains, and as coatings on kyanite grains. Fe-oxide spheres ranging in diameter from approximately 5–100 μm are common and may compose up to 10% in some samples. Titanium dioxide was rarely observed as coatings on silicate mineral grains. Energy dispersive spectroscopy analysis on magnetite crystals indicates they have end-member compositions. Bulk property investigations indicate that grain size distributions of samples are primarily unimodal with 20–40% of material being between 0.600 and 0.250 mm. Hydraulic conductivity values of samples investigated vary between 0.0036 and 0.0077 cm/s and are broadly consistent with those expected of sands with similar grain size distributions. In addition to the magnetic waste stream a light blue, water soluble, amorphous Cu sulfate occurs as a coating on surfaces of boulders. The coating is composed of rounded interlocking particles 5–60 μm in diameter. This material is of some environmental concern for freshwater invertebrates, but can be managed using sorption media. Hyperspectral data were gathered of the magnetic separate, kyanite ore samples, and the light blue Cu sulfate. The signatures of the kyanite ore, the blue mineral coating, and a mixture of the two provide spectral fingerprints that an imaging spectrometer could exploit for rapid detection and subsequent environmental monitoring.     

Multi‐proxy constraints on the significance of covariant δ13C values in carbonate and organic carbon during the early Mississippian

This study investigates the covariation between carbonate and organic δ¹³C values in a proximal to distal transect of four outcrops in the Madison Limestone in the Western United States Rockies, combined with δ³⁴S values of carbonate associated sulphate, the concentration of acid‐insoluble material and measurements of total organic carbon. These new geochemical datasets not only allow for an evaluation of carbon isotope covariance during one of the largest perturbations to the global carbon cycle over the past 550 Myr, but also constrain the cause of the excursion in carbonate δ¹³C values. The results support the hypothesis that a period of anoxia did not play a role in generating the positive carbonate δ¹³C values, but rather favour interpretations by previous workers that the proliferation of land plants destabilized the Carboniferous carbon cycle, setting the stage for a significant change in the carbonate δ¹³C values of contemporaneous marine carbonates. These results also demonstrate that one of the largest perturbations to the global carbon cycle did not produce synchronous variations in carbonate and organic δ¹³C values, emphasizing the importance of local depositional controls on carbon isotope covariance in the geological record in both modern and ancient environments.     

Salt marsh litter and detritivores: A closer look at redundancy

Most primary production of angiosperms in coastal salt marshes enters the detritivore food web; studies of this link have predominantly focused on one plant species (Spartina alterniflora) and one detritivore species (Littoraria irrorata). In mesocosm experiments, we studied the rates and pattern of decomposition of litter derived from four plant species common in southeastern United States coastal salt marshes and marsh-fringing terrestrial habitats. Crustanceans and gastropods were selected as detritivores feeding on, and affecting degradation of, the litter of two monocotyledons and two dicotyledons. Despite interspecific similarities in consumption, detritivores exhibited species-specific effects on litter chemistry and on the activity of litter-colonizing microbiota. The chemical composition of feces depended upon both the litter type and the detritivores’ species-specific digestive capabilities. Growth rates and survival of detritivores differed among litter species. Different salt marsh detritivores are likely to have different effects on decomposition processes in the salt marsh and cannot be regarded as functionally redundant nor can the litter of different plant species be regard ed as redundant as food for marsh detritivores.     

Late‐stage orogenic loading revealed by contact metamorphism in the northern Appalachians,New York

Pelitic schists from contact aureoles surrounding mafic–ultramafic plutons in Westchester County, NY record a high‐P (~0.8 GPa) high‐T (~790 °C) contact overprint on a Taconic regional metamorphic assemblage (~0.5 GPa). The contact metamorphic assemblage of a pelitic sample in the innermost aureole of the Croton Falls pluton, a small (<10 km²) gabbroic body, consists of quartz–plagioclase–biotite–garnet–sillimanite–ilmenite–graphite–Zn‐rich Al‐spinel. Both K‐feldspar and muscovite are absent, and abundant biotite, plagioclase, sillimanite, quartz and ilmenite inclusions are found within subhedral garnet crystals. Unusually low bulk‐rock Na and K contents imply depletion of alkalic components and silica through anatexis and melt extraction during contact heating relative to typical metapelites outside the aureole. Thermobarometry on nearby samples lacking a contact overprint yields 620–640 °C and 0.5–0.6 GPa. In the aureole sample, WDS X‐ray chemical maps show distinct Ca‐enriched rims on both garnet and matrix plagioclase. Furthermore, biotite inclusions within garnet have significantly higher Mg concentration than matrix biotite. Thermobarometry using GASP and garnet–biotite Mg–Fe exchange equilibria on inclusions and adjacent garnet host interior to the high‐Ca rim zone yield ~0.5 ± 0.1 GPa and ~620 ± 50 °C. Pairs in the modified garnet rim zone yield ~0.9 ± 0.1 GPa and ~790 ± 50 °C. Thermocalc average P–T calculations yield similar results for core (~0.5 ± ~0.1 GPa, ~640 ± ~80 °C) and rim (~0.9 ± ~0.1 GPa, ~800 ± ~90 °C) equilibria. The core assemblages are interpreted to record the P–T conditions of peak metamorphism during the Taconic regional event whereas the rim compositions and matrix assemblages are interpreted to record the P–T conditions during the contact event. The high pressures deduced for this later event are interpreted to reflect loading due to the emplacement of Taconic allochthons in the northern Appalachians during the waning stages of regional metamorphism (after c. 465 Ma) and before contact metamorphism (c. 435 Ma). In the absence of contact metamorphism‐induced recrystallization, it is likely that this regional‐scale loading would remain cryptic or unrecorded.     

The luminescence decay-time of Mn2+ activated calcite

Luminescence decay time data are presented for 17 samples of synthetic calcite and a natural calcite between room temperature and approximately 15 K. The majority of the samples have Mn concentration in the range 0.0001–0.01 atoms per formula unit (apfu). Their spectra are consistent with a single exponential decay. It was necessary to use a “stretched” exponential to obtain adequate fits to the spectra of two samples having Mn concentrations of 0.036 and 0.091 apfu. The decay time at room temperature ranges from approximately 40–57 ms. At low temperature the corresponding range is 51–120 ms, indicating that thermal quenching of the decay time takes place. The decay time is dependent on the concentration of Mn, reaching a maximum (at both room- and low-temperature) in the range 0.001–0.003 apfu. The composition dependence is greater at low temperature. The results are discussed in terms of the Mott-Seitz and multiphonon mechanisms of thermal quenching. It is concluded that the latter provides a better fit to the data and is more consistent with models of the luminescence process in calcite:Mn.     

The effects of multiple stressors on the balance between autotrophic and heterotrophic processes in an estuarine system

Responses of autotrophic and heterotrophic processes to nutrients and trace elements were examined in a series of experimental estuarine food webs of increasing trophic complexity using twenty 1-m³ mesocosms. Nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and trace elements (a mix of arsenic, copper, cadmium) were added alone and in combination during four experimental runs spanning from spring 1997 to spring 1998. Diel changes in dissolved oxygen were used to examine whole system gross primary production (WS-GPP), respiration (WS-RESP), and net ecosystem metabolism (NEM). Nutrient and trace element additions had the greatest effect on WS-GPP, WS-RESP, and NEM; trophic complexity did not significantly affect any of these parameters (p>0.3). Effects of trophic complexity were detected in nutrient tanks where bivalves significantly (p=0.03) reduced WS-GPP. Nutrient additions significantly enhanced WS-GPP and to a lesser extent WS-RESP during most mesocosm runs. The system shifted from net heterotrophy (−17.2±1.8 mmol C m⁻³ d⁻¹) in the controls to net autotrophy (29.1±7.6 mmol C m⁻³ d⁻¹) in the nutrient tanks. The addition of trace elements alone did not affect WS-GPP and WS-RESP to the same extent as nutrients, and their effects were more variable. Additions of trace elements alone consistently made the system more net heterotrophic (−24.9±1.4 mmol C m⁻³ d⁻¹) than the controls. When trace elements were added in combination with nutrients, the nutrient-enriched system became less autotrophic (1.6±3.1 mmol C m⁻³ d⁻¹). The effects of trace elements on NEM occurred primarily through reductions in WS-GPP rather than increases in WS-RESP. Our results suggest that autotrophic and heterotrophic processes respond differently to these stressors.