Star formation in NGC 6334 I and I(N)

The northern section of the molecular cloud complex NGC 6334 has been mapped in the CO and CS spectral line emission and in continuum emission at a wavelength of 1300 μm. Our observations highlight the two dominant sources, I and I(N), and a host of weaker sources. NGC 6334 I is associated with a cometary ultracompact H  ii region and a hot, compact core ≤10 arcsec in size. Mid-infrared and CH₃OH observations indicate that it is also associated with at least two protostellar sources, each of which may drive a molecular outflow. For region I we confirm the extreme high-velocity outflow first discovered by Bachiller & Cernicharo and find that it is very energetic with a mechanical luminosity of 390 L_⊙. A dynamical age for the outflow is ∼3000 yr. We also find a weaker outflow originating from the vicinity of NGC 6334 I. In CO and CS this outflow is quite prominent to the north-west, but much less so on the eastern side of I, where there is very little molecular gas. Spectral survey data show a molecular environment at position I which is rich in methanol, methyl formate and dimethyl ether, with lines ranging in energy up to 900 K above the ground state. NGC 6334 I(N) is more dense than I, but cooler, and has none of the high-excitation lines observed toward I. I(N) also has an associated outflow, but it is less energetic than the outflow from I. The fully sampled continuum map shows a network of filaments, voids and cores, many of which are likely to be sites of star formation. A striking feature is a narrow, linear ridge which defines the western boundary. It is unclear if there is a connection between this filament and the many potential sites of star formation, or if the filament existed prior to the star formation activity.     

Seamount Characteristics and Mine-Site Model Applied to Exploration- and Mining-Lease-Block Selection for Cobalt-Rich Ferromanganese Crusts

Regulations are being developed through the International Seabed Authority (ISBA) for the exploration and mining of cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts. This paper lays out geologic and geomorphologic criteria that can be used to determine the size and number of exploration and mine-site blocks that will be the focus of much discussion within the ISBA Council deliberations. The surface areas of 155 volcanic edifices in the central equatorial Pacific were measured and used to develop a mine-site model. The mine-site model considers areas above 2,500 m water depth as permissive, and narrows the general area available for exploration and mining to 20% of that permissive area. It is calculated that about eighteen 100 km² exploration blocks, each composed of five 20 km² contiguous sub-blocks, would be adequate to identify a 260 km² 20-year-mine site; the mine site would be composed of thirteen of the 20 km² sub-blocks. In this hypothetical example, the 260 km² mine site would be spread over four volcanic edifices and comprise 3.7% of the permissive area of the four edifices and 0.01% of the total area of those four edifices. The eighteen 100 km² exploration blocks would be selected from a limited geographic area. That confinement area is defined as having a long dimension of not more than 1,000 km and an area of not more than 300,000 km².     

Moonquakes and lunar tectonism

With the succesful installation of a geophysical station at Hadley Rille, on July 31, 1971, on the Apollo 15 mission, and the continued operation of stations 12 and 14 approximately 1100 km SW, the Apollo program for the first time achieved a network of seismic stations on the lunar surface. A network of at least three stations is essential for the location of natural events on the Moon. Thus, the establishment of this network was one of the most important milestones in the geophysical exploration of the Moon. The major discoveries that have resulted to date from the analysis of seismic data from this network can be summarized as follows:

1. Lunar seismic signals differ greatly from typical terrestrial seismic signals. It now appears that this can be explained almost entirely by the presence of a thin dry, heterogeneous layer which blankets the Moon to a probable depth of few km with a maximum possible depth of about 20 km. Seismic waves are highly scattered in this zone. Seismic wave propagation within the lunar interior, below the scattering zone, is highly efficient. As a result, it is probable that meteoroid impact signals are being received from the entire lunar surface.
2. The Moon possesses a crust and a mantle, at least in the region of the Apollo 12 and 14 stations. The thickness of the crust is between 55 and 70 km and may consist of two layers. The contrast in elastic properties of the rocks which comprise these major structural units is at least as great as that which exists between the crust and mantle of the earth. (See Toks?zet al., p. 490, for further discussion of seismic evidence of a lunar crust.)
3. Natural lunar events detected by the Apollo seismic network are moonquakes and meteoroid impacts. The average rate of release of seismic energy from moonquakes is far below that of the Earth. Although present data do not permit a completely unambiguous interpretation, the best solution obtainable places the most active moonquake focus at a depth of 800 km; slightly deeper than any known earthquake. These moonquakes occur in monthly cycles; triggered by lunar tides. There are at least 10 zones within which the repeating moonquakes originate.
4. In addition to the repeating moonquakes, moonquake ‘swarms’ have been discovered. During periods of swarm activity, events may occur as frequently as one event every two hours over intervals lasting several days. The source of these swarms is unknown at present. The occurrence of moonquake swarms also appears to be related to lunar tides; although, it is too soon to be certain of this point.

These findings have been discussed in eight previous papers (Lathamet al., 1969, 1970, 1971) The instrument has been described by Lathamet al. (1969) and Sutton and Latham (1964). The locations of the seismic stations are shown in Figure 1.     

Deep-sea Fe-Mn Crusts from the Northeast Atlantic Ocean: Composition and Resource Considerations

Eighteen deep-sea ferromanganese crusts (Fe-Mn crusts) from 10 seamounts in the northeast Atlantic were studied. Samples were recovered from water depths of ～1,200 to ～4,600 m from seamounts near Madeira, the Canary and Azores islands, and one sample from the western Mediterranean Sea.

The mineralogical and chemical compositions of the samples indicate that the crusts are typical continental margin, hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts. The Fe-Mn crusts exhibit a Co + Cu + Ni maximum of 0.96 wt%. Platinum-group element contents analyzed for five samples showed Pt contents from 153 to 512 ppb.

The resource potential of Fe-Mn crusts within and adjacent to the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is evaluated to be comparable to that of crusts in the central Pacific, indicating that these Atlantic deposits may be an important future resource.     

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (～2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.     

Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO₂, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO₂. Results indicate that SST and CO₂ change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO₂ change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO₂ and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO₂ change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.     

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures to MOC variations is relatively robust—in pattern if not in magnitude—across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6?years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10–20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean’s thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.