Probabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models

Probabilistic seasonal predictions of rainfall that incorporate proper uncertainties are essential for climate risk management. In this study, three different multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used to generate probabilistic seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on a set of eight global climate models for the 1982–2009 period. The three MME approaches differ in their calculation of spread of the forecast distribution, treated as a Gaussian, while all three use the simple multi-model subdivision average to define the mean of the forecast distribution. The first two approaches use the within-ensemble spread and error residuals of ensemble mean hindcasts, respectively, to compute the variance of the forecast distribution. The third approach makes use of the correlation between the ensemble mean hindcasts and the observations to define the spread using a signal-to-noise ratio. Hindcasts are verified against high-resolution gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department in terms of meteorological subdivision spatial averages. The use of correlation for calculating the spread provides better skill than the other two methods in terms of rank probability skill score. In order to further improve the skill, an additional method has been used to generate multi-model probabilistic predictions based on simple averaging of tercile category probabilities from individual models. It is also noted that when such a method is used, skill of probabilistic forecasts is improved as compared with using the multi-model ensemble mean to define the mean of the forecast distribution and then probabilities are estimated. However, skill of the probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall is too low.     

The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO–IOD relationships in a global coupled model

The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24?h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM–ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2?h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM–ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Ni?o event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model’s El Ni?o which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM–ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum is in better agreement with observations. On the other hand, the ISM–IOD teleconnection is sensitive to both SST coupling frequency and the vertical oceanic resolution, but increasing the vertical oceanic resolution is degrading the ISM–IOD teleconnection in the CGCM. These results highlight the need of a proper assessment of both temporal scale interactions and coupling strategies in order to improve current CGCMs. These results, which must be confirmed with other CGCMs, have also important implications for dynamical seasonal prediction systems or climate change projections of the monsoon.     

Correction of atmospheric effect on ADEOS/OCTS ocean color data: Algorithm description and evaluation of its performance

This paper first describes the atmospheric correction algorithm for OCTS visible band data used at NASDA/EOC. Sharing a basic structure with Gordon and Wang’s Sea WiFS algorithm, it uses 10 candidate aerosol models including the “Asian dust model” introduced in consideration of the unique feature of aerosols over the east Asian waters. Based on the observations at 670 and 865 nm bands, the algorithm selects a pair of aerosol models that account best for the observed spectral reflectances, and synthesizes the aerosol reflectance used for the atmospheric correction. Two different schemes for determining the value of the parameter for the aerosol model selection are presented and their anticipated estimation error is analyzed in terms of retrieved water reflectance at 443 nm. The results of our numerical simulation show that the standard deviation of the estimation error of the “weighted average” scheme is mostly within the permissible level of ±0.002, reducing the error by 18% on average compared to the “simple average” scheme. The paper further discusses the expected error under the old CZCS-type atmospheric correction, which assumes constant aerosol optical properties throughout the given image. Although our algorithm has a better performance than the CZCS algorithm, further analysis shows that the error induced by the assumption taken in the algorithm that the water-leaving radiance at 670 nm band is negligibly small may be large in high pigment concentration waters, indicating the necessity for future improvements.     

Collapse behavior of a brick masonry house using a shaking table and numerical simulation based on the extended distinct element method

Damage caused by devastating earthquakes has occurred in many developing countries. In order to mitigate such damage by promoting the study of adequate seismic design strategies, the authors conducted a dynamic collapse test on 3 m × 3 m × 3 m brick masonry house constructed with Pakistani bricks, using a one-direction horizontal large-scale shaking table. In order to analyze and simulate seismic performance of the masonry structures, the authors applied a new numerical simulating method based on the Extended Distinct Element Method (EDEM) and conducted collapse simulations of the brick masonry house behavior during the shaking table tests. In the numerical simulation model, bricks were assumed to be rigid bodies, and mortar was modeled using a mortar spring that consists of a normal spring and a shear spring. The parameters of each mortar spring were defined based on the results of material tests. Simulated results showed various collapsing processes, and the simulated aspects were found to be similar to the results of the shaking table tests.     

Decadal seesaw of the Central and Subtropical Mode Water formation associated with the Kuroshio Extension variability

Available Argo profiling float data from 2002 to 2011 were analyzed to examine the effect of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) current system variability on the formation of the Central Mode Water. Just north of the upstream portion of the KE at 140–152°E, formation of a lighter variety of the Central Mode Water in winter was active during the unstable period of the upstream KE in 2006–2009 and was reduced when the upstream KE was in the stable period of 2002–2005 and 2010–2011. This decadal formation variability is out of phase with that of the Subtropical Mode Water just south of the KE.     

Impact of flood events on macrobenthic community structure on an intertidal flat developing in the Ohta River Estuary

We investigated the effects of river floods on the macrobenthic community of the intertidal flat in the Ohta River Estuary, Japan, from 2005 to 2010. Sediment erosion by flood events ranged from about 2–3 cm to 12 cm, and the salinity dropped to 0‰ even during low-intensity flood events. Cluster analysis of the macrobenthic population showed that the community structure was controlled by the physical disturbance, decreased salinity, or both. The opportunistic polychaete Capitella sp. was the most dominant species in all clusters, and populations of the long-lived polychaete Ceratonereis erythraeensis increased in years with stable flow and almost disappeared in years with intense flooding. The bivalve Musculista senhousia was also an important opportunistic species that formed mats in summer of the stable years and influenced the structure of the macrobenthic community. Our results demonstrate the substantial effects of flood events on the macrobenthic community structure.     

Building damage characteristics based on surveyed data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

A large amount of buildings was damaged or destroyed by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. Numerous field surveys were conducted in order to collect the tsunami inundation extents and building damage data in the affected areas. Therefore, this event provides us with one of the most complete data set among tsunami events in history. In this study, fragility functions are derived using data provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation of Japan, with more than 250,000 structures surveyed. The set of data has details on damage level, structural material, number of stories per building and location (town). This information is crucial to the understanding of the causes of building damage, as differences in structural characteristics and building location can be taken into account in the damage probability analysis. Using least squares regression, different sets of fragility curves are derived to demonstrate the influence of structural material, number of stories and coastal topography on building damage levels. The results show a better resistant performance of reinforced concrete and steel buildings over wood or masonry buildings. Also, buildings taller than two stories were confirmed to be much stronger than the buildings of one or two stories. The damage characteristic due to the coastal topography based on limited number of data in town locations is also shortly discussed here. At the same tsunami inundation depth, buildings along the Sanriku ria coast were much greater damaged than buildings from the plain coast in Sendai. The difference in damage states can be explained by the faster flow velocities in the ria coast at the same inundation depth. These findings are key to support better future building damage assessments, land use management and disaster planning.     

时域反射仪在监测青藏高原活动层水分变化过程中的应用

时域反射仪（ＴＤＲ）是一种利用电磁脉冲方法,根据电磁波在土层中的传播速度测试不同土层 的介电常数,接介电常数值可获不同土类在冻融状态下的未冻水含量和总体积含水量．ＴＤＲ仪可在 野外环境下无破损地测得融土和冻土的液态水含量,尤其是能测出不同负温下冻土中未冻水的变 化．该仪器最适用于测量均质细颗粒土的体积含水量,经与烘干称重法对比,ＴＤＲ仪应用在青藏高 原上不同融土类所测含水量值的误差范围：粉土和细砂为±２．５％,粘土和亚粘土为±３．０％,砂砾石 土和碎石土为±５％．经过反复的野外实践证明,用 ＴＤＲ仪测上层含水量具有简便、快速及稳定等 优点,是值得推广的方法．根据青藏公路沿线８个场地埋置的ＴＤＲ仪和地温仪所获的一个年周期的 水、热资料（１９９７．８～１９９８．７）,分析了高原活动层在冻融过程中温度场和水分场的耦合所导致的水分迁移及水分场重分布的规律     

Long-term precipitation and stream discharge records at seven forested experimental watersheds along a latitudinal transect in Japan: Jozankei,Kamabuchi, Takaragawa,Tsukuba, Tatsunokuchi-yama,Kahoku and Sarukawa

This data note introduces a database of long-term daily total precipitation and stream discharge data for seven forested watersheds in Japan that have been continuously monitored by the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute. Three of the watersheds started data collection in the 1930s. Forest cover across the sites ranges from cool to warm temperate regions with the latitude spanning from 31 to 44° N and annual precipitation ranging from 1200 to 3000 mm yr⁻¹. The effects of vegetation change via clearcutting, thinning and forest fire (among other stressors) on stream discharge can be analysed from the long-term observation sites. Moreover, this multi-site dataset allows for inter- and intra-site comparisons of annual water loss (difference of annual precipitation and stream discharge). These long-term datasets can provide comprehensive insights into the effects of climate change and other stressors on forested ecosystems, not only in Japan but across a spectrum of forest types, if combined with other long-term records from other forested watersheds across the world.