碳交易政策的经济影响:以广东省为例

通过构建广东省两区域动态模型,对广东省碳交易及其他政策措施进行定量评估,分析实施可调控总量的碳交易政策机制对广东省及参与交易部门的经济影响。研究结果表明,按照减排情景到2015年广东完成19.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景,GDP将减少0.7%;按照强减排情景到2015年将完成20.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景GDP将减少0.9%;如果在强减排情景的基础上实施碳交易政策,GDP相对基准情景减少0.8%,到2015年实施碳交易政策可减少GDP损失约90亿元,说明广东建立碳排放权交易机制能够发挥支持经济发展和节能减碳双赢的作用。     

Gas permeability evolution of cataclasite and fault gouge in triaxial compression and implications for changes in fault-zone permeability structure through the earthquake cycle

We report the results of permeability measurements of fault gouge and tonalitic cataclasite from the fault zone of the Median Tectonic Line, Ohshika, central Japan, carried out during triaxial compression tests. The experiments revealed marked effects of deformation on the permeability of the specimens. Permeability of fault gouge decreases rapidly by about two orders of magnitude during initial loading and continues to decrease slowly during further inelastic deformation. The drop in permeability during initial loading is much smaller for cataclasite than for gouge, followed by abrupt increase upon failure, and the overall change in permeability correlates well with change in volumetric strain, i.e., initial, nearly elastic contraction followed by dilatancy upon the initiation of inelastic deformation towards specimen failure. If cemented cataclasite suffers deformation prior to or during an earthquake, a cataclasite zone may change into a conduit for fluid flow. Fault gouge zones, however, are unlikely to switch to very permeable zones upon the initiation of fault slip. Thus, overall permeability structure of a fault may change abruptly prior to or during earthquakes and during the interseismic period. Fault gouge and cataclasite have internal angles of friction of about 36° and 45°, respectively, as is typical for brittle rocks.     

Geology and Hydrothermal Alteration of the Low Sulfidation

Abstract. The Pantingan Gold System (PGS) is a vein-type epithermal prospect exposed within the summit caldera of Mount Mariveles, Bagac, Bataan (Luzon), Philippines. It consists of nine major veins, eight of which trend NW-WNW and distributed in an en echelon array. The eastern tips of these veins appear to terminate near the NE-NNE trending Vein 1, which is located in the easternmost portion of the prospect. Metal assay results on vein and wall rock samples indicate concentrations of 0.01 to 1.1 g/ton Au, trace to 34 g/ton Ag and 0.003 to 0.02 % Cu. Andesite lava flow deposits host the PGS. Potassium-Argon isotopic dating of these andesites yields anarrow age range of 0.88± 0.13 to 1.13 ± 0.17 Ma. The surface exposures of the veins (up to 5 m wide) are encountered at different levels between 590–740 masl. These commonly display a massive texture although banding prominently occurs in Vein 1. The veins consist of gray to cream-colored crystalline and chalcedonic quartz and amorphous silica. Pyrite is the most ubiquitous sulfide mineral. It occurs either as fine-grained disseminations and aggregates in quartz or as infillings in vugs. Calcite, marcasite and bornite are also occasionally noted in the deposit. The prospect shows silicic, argillic, propylitic and advanced argillic alteration zones. Silicic and argillic alterations are confined in the immediate wall rocks of the quartz veins. Argillic alteration grades to a propylitic zone farther away from the veins. The advanced argillic alteration zone, indicated by a suite of acidic clay minerals that include kaolin-ite, dickite, pyrophyllite and alunite, might have been imprinted during the late stages of gold deposition. As a whole, the PGS displays geological and mineralogical features typical of gold mineralization in a low sulfidation, epithermal environment. It is also representative of a young, tectonically undisturbed gold deposit.     

Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars as Tracers of Star Formation Histories: the GAIA Context

We discuss a possible use of the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars for tracing star formation histories on the Galactic and extragalactic distance scales with the ESA's astrometric space mission GAIA. Extensive numerical simulations demonstrate that metallicities (Δ [M/H] ≲ 0.3) can be obtained for the AGB stars with GAIA up to the distances of ∼ 200 kpc, if no interstellar extinction is present. Reliable population ages can be also obtained from the AGB stars if their T _eff are constrained precisely. We show that precise effective temperatures can be obtained by fitting observed spectral energy distributions of the AGB stars with theoretical fluxes calculated from the synthetic spectra. A combination of the derived effective temperatures with the bolometric luminosities allows to derive precise population ages for a wide range of ages and metallicities over the large distance scales. This demonstrates that AGB stars can be employed very effectively for tracing star formation histories with GAIA, allowing to refine the global evolutionary scenarios of stellar populations in the Milky Way and the galaxies beyond. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Recovery of entire shocked samples in a range of pressure from ~100 GPa to Hugoniot elastic limit

We carried out laser shock experiments and wholly recovered shocked olivine and quartz samples. We investigated the petrographic features based on optical micrographs of sliced samples and found that each recovered sample comprises three regions, I (optically dark), II (opaque), and III (transparent). Scanning electron microscopy combined with electron backscattered diffraction shows that there are no crystal features in the region I; the materials in the region I have once melted. Moreover, numerical calculations performed with the iSALE shock physics code suggest that the boundary between regions II and III corresponds to Hugoniot elastic limit (HEL). Thus, we succeeded in the recovery of the entire shocked samples experienced over a wide range of pressures from HEL (~10 GPa) to melting pressure (~100 GPa) in a hierarchical order.     

A rotary-shear low to high-velocity friction apparatus in Beijing to study rock friction at plate to seismic slip rates

This paper reviews 19 apparatuses having highvelocity capabilities,describes a rotary-shear low to highvelocity friction apparatus installed at Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,and reports results from velocity-jump tests on Pingxi fault gouge to illustrate technical problems in conducting velocity-stepping tests at high velocities.The apparatus is capable of producing plate to seismic velocities（44 mm/a to 2.1 m/s for specimens of 40 mm in diameter）,using a 22 kW servomotor with a gear/belt system having three velocity ranges.A speed range can be changed by 103 or 106by using five electromagnetic clutches without stopping the motor.Two cam clutches allow fivefold velocity steps,and the motor speed can be increased from zero to 1,500 rpm in 0.1-0.2 s by changing the controlling voltage.A unique feature of the apparatus is a large specimen chamber where different specimen assemblies can be installed easily.In addition to a standard specimen assembly for friction experiments,two pressure vessels were made for pore pressures to 70 MPa;one at room temperature and the other at temperatures to 500 °C.Velocity step tests are needed to see if the framework of rate-and-state friction is applicable or not at high velocities.We report results from velocity jump tests from 1.4 mm/s to 1.4 m/s on yellowish gouge from a Pingxi fault zone,located at the northeastern part of the Longmenshan fault system that caused the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.An instantaneous increase in friction followed by dramatic slip weakening was observed for the yellowish gouge with smooth sliding surfaces of host rock,but no instantaneous response was recognized for the same gouge with roughened sliding surfaces.Instantaneous and transient frictional properties upon velocity steps cannot be separated easily at high velocities,and technical improvements for velocity step tests are suggested.     

An emission pathway for stabilization at 6?Wm?2 radiative forcing

Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm^?2) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO₂ between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO₂ and N₂O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.