Using the DPFT approach to improve flash flood forecasting models

DPFT is a lumped approach for operational flash flood forecasting, based on the unit hydrograph. Using a multi-event alternating iterative algorithm, it identifies a robust and stable average transfer function and a consistent set of effective rainfall series associated with each event at the same time. This key ingredient allows an objective calibration of different loss functions, relating gauged precipitation and effective rainfall. A case study based on an operational French basin (545 km²) is presented. Three lumped production functions have been calibrated and compared. The results show that more elaborate models of loss functions must be proposed, and some possible directions for this are pointed out.     

Tectonic evolution of an intraplate basin: the Lower Tagus Cenozoic Basin,Portugal

This article focuses on the reinterpretation of well, seismic reflection, magnetic, gravimetric, surface wave and geological surface data, together with the acquisition of seismic noise data to study the Lower Tagus Cenozoic Basin tectono‐sedimentary evolution. For the first time, the structure of the base of the basin in its distal and intermediate sectors is unravelled, which was previously only known in the areas covered by seismic reflection data (distal and small part of intermediate sectors). A complex geometry was found, with three subbasins delimited by NNE‐SSW faults and separated by WNW‐ESE to NW‐SE oriented horsts. In the area covered by seismic reflection data, four horizons were studied: top of the Upper Miocene, Lower to Middle Miocene top, the top of the Palaeogene and the base of Cenozoic. Seismic data show that the major filling of the basin occurred during Upper Miocene. The fault pattern affecting Neogene and Palaeogene units derived here points to that of a polyphasic basin. In the Palaeogene, the Vila Franca de Xira (VFX) and a NNE‐SSW trending previously unknown structure (ABC fault zone) probably acted as the major strike‐slip fault zones of the releasing bend of a pull‐apart basin, which produced a WNW‐ESE to NW‐SE fault system with transtensional kinematic. During the Neogene, as the stress regime rotated anticlockwise to the present NW‐SE to WNW‐ESE orientation, the VFX and Azambuja fault zones acted as the major transpressive fault zones and Mesozoic rocks overthrusted Miocene sediments. The reactivation of WNW‐ESE to NW‐SE fault systems with a dextral strike‐slip component generated a series of horsts and grabens and the partitioning of the basin into several subbasins. Therefore, we propose a polyphasic model for the area, with the formation of an early pull‐apart basin during the Palaeogene caused by an Iberia–Eurasia plates collision that later evolved into an incipient foreland basin along the Neogene due to a NW‐SE to WNE‐ESE oriented Iberia–Nubia convergence. This convergence is producing uplift in the area since the Quaternary except for the Tagus estuary subbasin around the VFX fault, where subsidence is observed. This may be due to the locking or the development of a larger component of strike‐slip movement of the NNE‐SSW to N‐S thrust fault system with the exception of the VFX fault, which is more favourably oriented to the maximum compressive stress.     

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past,present, and future

This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

     

Climatic cycles inferred from the aminostratigraphy and aminochronology of Quaternary dunes and palaeosols from the eastern islands of the Canary Archipelago

Aminochronological and aminostratigraphical methods have been used to study the Quaternary aeolian deposits from the islands located east of the Canary Archipelago (Fuerteventura and Lanzarote islands and La Graciosa, Montaña Clara and Alegranza islets). The extent of racemisation/epimerisation of four amino acids (isoleucine, aspartic acid, phenylalanine and glutamic acid) was measured in land snail shells of the genus Theba. The age calculation algorithms of these amino acids have been determined to permit the numerical dating of these deposits. Eight Aminozones, each defining dune/palaeosol‐formation episodes, have been distinguished and dated at 48.6 ± 6.4, 42.5 ± 6.0, 37.8 ± 4.6, 29.4 ± 4.8, 22.4 ± 4.5, 14.9 ± 3.6, 11.0 ± 4.0 and 5.4 ± 1.1 ka BP, the first five of them defining cycles of 5–7 ka. The alternation of palaeosols and aeolian deposits, which are related to abrupt transitions from humid to arid conditions, are the reflection of globally induced changes in North Africa palaeoenvironmental conditions linked to the effect of African palaeomonsoons on the trade winds and the Saharan Air Layer. Probably these aeolian cycles, with a recurrence period of 5–7 ka, are the expression of multiples of the ～2.4 ka solar‐cycle. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LS I +61 303 as a potential neutrino source on the light of magic results

Very high energy γ-rays have recently been detected from the microquasar LS I +61 303 using the MAGIC telescope. A phenomenological study on the concomitant neutrinos that would be radiated if the γ-ray emission is hadronic in origin is herein presented. Neutrino oscillations are considered, and the expected number of events in a km-scale detector such as ICECUBE is computed under different assumptions including orbital periodicity and modulation, as well as different precision in the modeling of the detector. We argue that the upper limits already imposed on the neutrino emission of LS I +61 303 using AMANDA-II and the forthcoming measurements by ICECUBE may significantly constrain – in an independent and unbiased way – the γ-ray to neutrino flux ratio, and thus the possibility of a hadronic origin of the γ-rays. The viability of hadronic models based on wind–jet interactions in the LS +61 303 system after MAGIC measurements is discussed.     

Fluids during diagenesis and sulfate vein formation in sediments at Gale crater,Mars

We model the fluids involved in the alteration processes recorded in the Sheepbed Member mudstones of Yellowknife Bay (YKB), Gale crater, Mars, as revealed by the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover investigations. We compare the Gale crater waters with fluids modeled for shergottites, nakhlites, and the ancient meteorite ALH 84001, as well as rocks analyzed by the Mars Exploration rovers, and with terrestrial ground and surface waters. The aqueous solution present during sediment alteration associated with phyllosilicate formation at Gale was high in Na, K, and Si; had low Mg, Fe, and Al concentrations—relative to terrestrial groundwaters such as the Deccan Traps and other modeled Mars fluids; and had near neutral to alkaline pH. Ca and S species were present in the 10^?3 to 10^?2 concentration range. A fluid local to Gale crater strata produced the alteration products observed by Curiosity and subsequent evaporation of this groundwater‐type fluid formed impure sulfate‐ and silica‐rich deposits—veins or horizons. In a second, separate stage of alteration, partial dissolution of this sulfate‐rich layer in Yellowknife Bay, or beyond, led to the pure sulfate veins observed in YKB. This scenario is analogous to similar processes identified at a terrestrial site in Triassic sediments with gypsum veins of the Mercia Mudstone Group in Watchet Bay, UK.     

Assessment of prospective geological hazards in Torrevieja-La Mata coast (western Mediterranean) based on Pleistocene and Holocene events

Natural Hazards - The coastal zone in which the lagoons of La Mata and Torrevieja (Eastern Spain) developed can be described as a compilation of geo-hazards typical of the Mediterranean realm. This...